RESUMEN
The COVID-19 epidemic curve in Japan was constructed based on daily reported data from January 14, 2020 until April 20, 2021. A SEIR compartmental model was used for the curve fitting by updating the estimation per wave. In the current vaccination pace of 1/1000, restrictions (state of emergency in Japan) would be repeated 4 times until the end of next March. In the case of 1/500, another round of restriction would be required in the summer 2021, after which the infection would be mitigated. In the case of 1/250, there would be no need for restriction after the current spring restriction. The scenario of completing the vaccination of 110 million people by the end of March 2020 corresponds to the case of 1/250 in this curve. When considering the likely spread of variant with greater infectiousness (here we assume 1.3 times greater than the original virus), 1/500 pace of vaccination would not be enough to contain it and need several series of restrictions. There are currently several variants of concern that are already spreading in urban areas in this country. In the new stage of the replacement of variants, if the vaccination pace could not be quadrupled from the current pace, Japan could not become a zero covid (zero corona) country at least one year.
RESUMEN
Tokyos Olympic and Paralympic Games set to begin in late July 2021 without spectators from abroad, but vaccine rollout has been slow in Japan compared to other developed countries. In this study, COVID-19 epidemic curve in Tokyo is developed based on weekly reported data from January 23, 2020 until April 16, 2021. The maximum daily number of the infected cases in Tokyo in August 2021 would be 7,991 if the current pace of vaccinations (1/1,000 per day). This daily number is greater than the highest daily cases (2,447) recorded on January 7, 2021. However, if the rollout pace could be doubled (1/500 per day), the peak daily new cases would be 4,470 in August. If it could be quadrupled (1/250 per day), the peak would be noted at 2,128 in July and the highest number in August would be 1,977. If vaccine rollout could not be enhanced, the cancellation might be an acceptable decision, since health is the most precious to our Olympians.
RESUMEN
BackgroundTo break the chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, population-wide testing is practiced in various countries. However, scant research has addressed this topic in Japan. Materials and MethodsIn this modelling exercise, we extracted the number of daily reported cases of COVID-19 in Okinawa from October 1 to November 30, 2020 and explored possible scenarios for decreasing COVID-19 incidence by combining population-wide screening and/or social distancing policy. ResultsWe reveal that permanent lockdown can be replaced by mass testing that mobilizes sufficient target population at an adequate frequency. In addition, solely imposing a circuit breaker will not bring a favorable outcome in the long-term, and mass testing presents implications for minimizing a period of lockdown. DiscussionOur results highlight the importance of incentivizing citizens to join the frequent testing and ensure their appropriate isolation. To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, rigorous investment in public health is manifestly vital.