RESUMEN
Because of numerous reported foodborne illness cases due to non-O157:H7 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) bacteria in the United States and elsewhere, interest in requiring better control of these pathogens in the food supply has increased. Successfully putting forth regulations depends upon cost-benefit analyses. Policy decisions often depend upon an evaluation of the uncertainty of the estimates used in such an analysis. This article presents an approach for estimating the uncertainties of estimated expected cost per illness and total annual costs of non-O157 STEC-related illnesses due to uncertainties associated with (i) recent FoodNet data and (ii) methodology proposed by Scallan et al. in 2011. The FoodNet data categorize illnesses regarding hospitalization and death. We obtained the illness-category costs from the foodborne illness cost calculator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Our approach for estimating attendant uncertainties differs from that of Scallan et al. because we used a classical bootstrap procedure for estimating uncertainty of an estimated parameter value (e.g., mean value), reflecting the design of the FoodNet database, whereas the other approach results in an uncertainty distribution that includes an extraneous contribution due to the underlying variability of the distribution of illnesses among different sites. For data covering 2005 through 2010, we estimate that the average cost per illness was about $450, with a 98% credible interval of $230 to $1,000. This estimate and range are based on estimations of about one death and 100 hospitalizations per 34,000 illnesses. Our estimate of the total annual cost is about $51 million, with a 98% credible interval of $19 million to $122 million. The uncertainty distribution for total annual cost is approximated well by a lognormal distribution, with mean and standard deviations for the log-transformed costs of 10.765 and 0.390, respectively.
Asunto(s)
Costo de Enfermedad , Infecciones por Escherichia coli/epidemiología , Contaminación de Alimentos , Escherichia coli Shiga-Toxigénica/patogenicidad , Costos y Análisis de Costo , Infecciones por Escherichia coli/economía , Contaminación de Alimentos/economía , Microbiología de Alimentos , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos/economía , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos/epidemiología , Síndrome Hemolítico-Urémico/economía , Síndrome Hemolítico-Urémico/epidemiología , Hospitalización/economía , Humanos , Incertidumbre , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: This paper examines the contribution of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission's (CPSC) 1973 cigarette ignition mattress flammability standard to reduce mattress fires since 1980, when the U.S. Fire Administration's National Fire Incident Reporting System became fully operational. METHOD: The paper attempts to separate the effect of the cigarette ignition standard from the declining trend in mattress fires that would have resulted without the standard. We analyze the impact of the 1973 cigarette standard on smoking material ignition fires, deaths, and injuries as well as its effect on fires, deaths, and injuries from all ignition sources (smoking material ignitions, open-flame ignitions, and other ignition sources). Impacts on Industry: The results suggest that the 1973 mattress standard has effectively reduced the mattress fire risk and that further reductions in risk via actions tied specifically to cigarette ignition are likely to be difficult to achieve.