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BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting both lives of millions of people and the global economy of the world day by day. This study aimed to determine the trend of COVID-19 and its predictions in Ethiopia. STUDY DESIGN: This study was conducted based on a time series design. METHODS: The required data were collected from the Ethiopian COVID-19 monitoring platform beginning from the onset of the disease in the country until March 28, 2021. Furthermore, the auto-regressive integrated moving average models were used on daily-based time series. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression were also employed to notice the effects of months on the transmission and disease-related human deaths. RESULTS: The mean daily infection and death of COVID-19 in Ethiopia were 533.47±466.62 and 7.45±6.72, respectively. The peaks of infection and deaths in this country were in March, 2021, and August, 2020. In addition, the trend of daily new deaths (P=0.000) and infection (P=0.000) was significantly increasing. It is expected that around 10 million (8.6%) and 138,084.64 (0.12%) Ethiopians will be infected and die, respectively. CONCLUSION: The disease transmission and deaths vary from day to day and month to month. The highest peaks of COVID-19 infection and death were in March 2021 and August 2020. For the next end of August 2021, the COVID-19 daily new infection, new death, total case, and total death are expected to be increased. If this epidemic disease is not controlled, Ethiopia will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and the outbreak even becomes worse.

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COVID-19 , Brotes de Enfermedades , Etiopía/epidemiología , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2

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BACKGROUND: Currently, the worldwide prevalence and incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is drastically increasing. The main objective of this study was modeling the time-to-death of patients with MDR-TB at St. Peter's Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by using various parametric shared frailty models. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study design was used. METHODS: The study population was TB patients with MDR at St. Peter's Specialized Hospital from January 2016 through December 2019. Exponential, Weibull, and log-normal were used as baseline hazard functions with the gamma and inverse Gaussian frailty distributions. All the models were compared based on Akaike's Information Criteria. RESULTS: The overall median time to death was 11 months and 123 (33.5%) patients died. Patients who lived in rural areas had shorter survival time than those who lived in urban areas with an accelerated factor of 0.135 (P=0.002). Patients with a history of anti-TB drug consumption had a short survival time than those without such a history with an accelerated factor of 0.02 (P=0.001). The variability (heterogeneity) of time to death of patients in the region for the selected model (Weibull-inverse Gaussian shared frailty model) was =0.144 (P=0.027). CONCLUSION: The MDR-TB patients with weight gain, khat and alcohol consumption, clinical complication of pneumothorax and pneumonia, extrapulmonary TB, and history of anti-TB drug consumption as well as those who lived in rural areas had a shorter survival time, compared to others. There was a significant heterogeneity effect in the St. Peter's Specialized Hospital. The best model for predicting the time to death of MDR-TB patients was Weibull-inverse Gaussian shared frailty model.

Asunto(s)

Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos , Antituberculosos/uso terapéutico , Etiopía/epidemiología , Hospitales , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/tratamiento farmacológico , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/epidemiología

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BACKGROUND: Antenatal care (ANC) is a preventive obstetric health-care program aimed at optimizing maternal fetal outcome through regular monitoring of pregnancy. Even if World Health Organization recommends a minimum of 4 ANC visits for normal pregnancy, existing evidence from developing countries including Ethiopia indicates there are few women who utilize it due to different reasons. The purpose of this article is to identify determinants significantly influencing the ANC visit utilization of child-bearing mothers in the Kaffa, Sheka, and Bench-Maji zones of Southern Nation Nationalities and Peoples Region, Ethiopia. METHODS: A total of 1715 child-bearing mothers were selected. Several count models such as Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, and hurdle negative binomial regression models were fitted to select the model which best fits the data. The parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood. Measures of goodness of fit were based on the Rootogram. RESULTS: The data were found zeros (8.1%); the variance (3.794), which is less than its mean (3.91). Hurdle Poisson regression model was found to be better fitted with the data given. Variables are selected by backward selection method, through the analysis, zones, residence, age at first pregnancy, source of information, knowledge during danger sin, willingness, time of visit, and satisfaction, which were major predictors of ANC service utilization. The estimated odds that the number of ANC visits those child-bearing mothers made (mothers who lived in urban) are 3.52 times more likely than mothers who lived in rural keeping others variables constant and the like. CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, a lot of effort needs to be made by health offices to create awareness, maternal health-care programs should be expanded and intensified in rural areas, improve women's knowledge and awareness about the risk factor of late visit, the necessary investigations and follow-up throughout the antenatal period to promote regular attendance for ANC, and fulfill the client's satisfaction.