RESUMEN
Research on regulatory mechanisms in biological populations often focuses on environmental covariates. An integrated approach that combines environmental indices with organismal-level information can provide additional insight on regulatory mechanisms. Survival of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) is consistently low whereas some adjacent populations with similar life histories experience greater survival. It is not known if populations with differential survival respond similarly during early marine residence, a critical period in the life history. Ocean collections, genetic stock identification, and otolith analyses were combined to evaluate the growth-mortality and match-mismatch hypotheses during early marine residence of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon. Interannual variation in juvenile attributes, including size at marine entry and marine growth rate, was compared with estimates of survival and physical and biological metrics. Multiple linear regression and multi-model inference were used to evaluate the relative importance of biological and physical metrics in explaining interannual variation in survival. There was relatively weak support for the match-mismatch hypothesis and stronger evidence for the growth-mortality hypothesis. Marine growth and size at capture were strongly, positively related to survival, a finding similar to spring Chinook salmon from the Mid-Upper Columbia River. In hindcast models, basin-scale indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) and biological indices (juvenile salmon catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and a copepod community index (CCI)) accounted for substantial and similar portions of variation in survival for juvenile emigration years 1998-2008 (R2>0.70). However, in forecast models for emigration years 2009-2011, there was an increasing discrepancy between predictions based on the PDO (50-448% of observed value) compared with those based on the NPGO (68-212%) or biological indices (CPUE and CCI: 83-172%). Overall, the PDO index was remarkably informative in earlier years but other basin-scale and biological indices provided more accurate indications of survival in recent years.
Asunto(s)
Especies en Peligro de Extinción/estadística & datos numéricos , Ambiente , Salmón/crecimiento & desarrollo , Migración Animal/fisiología , Animales , Ecosistema , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Estuarios , Geografía , Océanos y Mares , Dinámica Poblacional/estadística & datos numéricos , Ríos , Análisis de SupervivenciaRESUMEN
By jointly considering patterns of genetic and life-history diversity in over 100 populations of Chinook salmon from California to British Columbia, we demonstrate the importance of two different mechanisms for life-history evolution. Mapping adult run timing (the life-history trait most commonly used to characterize salmon populations) onto a tree based on the genetic data shows that the same run-time phenotypes exist in many different genetic lineages. In a hierarchical gene diversity analysis, differences among major geographic and ecological provinces explained the majority (62%) of the overall G(ST), whereas run-time differences explained only 10%. Collectively, these results indicate that run-timing diversity has developed independently by a process of parallel evolution in many different coastal areas. However, genetic differences between coastal populations with different run timing from the same basin are very modest (G(ST) < 0.02), indicating that evolutionary divergence of this trait linked to reproductive isolation has not led to parallel speciation, probably because of ongoing gene flow. A strikingly different pattern is seen in the interior Columbia River Basin, where run timing and other correlated life-history traits map cleanly onto two divergent genetic lineages (G(ST) approximately 0.15), indicating that some patterns of life-history diversity have a much older origin. Indeed, genetic data indicate that in the interior Columbia Basin, the two divergent lineages behave essentially as separate biological species, showing little evidence of genetic contact in spite of the fact that they comigrate through large areas of the river and ocean and in some locations spawn in nearly adjacent areas.