RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: São Paulo city, Brazil, faces challenges caused by rapid urbanization. We illustrate how future travel patterns could lead to different health consequences in the city. METHODS: We evaluated the health impacts of different travel pattern scenarios for the São Paulo adult population by comparing the travel patterns of São Paulo in 2012 with counterfactual scenarios in which the city adopted travel patterns of i) those living in the city's expanded centre; ii) London (2012); iii) a highly motorized São Paulo (SP California); and iv) a visionary São Paulo (SP 2040), with high levels of walking and cycling and low levels of car and motorcycle use. For each scenario we estimated changes in exposure to air pollution, road injury risk, and physical activity. Health outcomes were estimated using disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and premature deaths averted. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the main sources of uncertainty. RESULTS: We found considerable health gains in the SP 2040 scenario (total 63.6k DALYs avoided), with 4.7% of premature deaths from ischemic heart disease avoided from increases in physical activity alone. Conversely, we found substantial health losses in the scenario favouring private transport (SP California, total increase of 54.9k DALYs), with an increase in road traffic deaths and injuries among pedestrians and motorized vehicles. Parameters related to air pollution had the largest impact on uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Shifting travel patterns towards more sustainable transport can provide major health benefits in São Paulo. Reducing the uncertainties in the findings should be a priority for empirical and modelling research on the health impacts of such shifts.

Asunto(s)

Contaminación del Aire , Ejercicio Físico , Evaluación del Impacto en la Salud , Modelos Biológicos , Viaje , Adulto , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Brasil , Ciudades , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidad Prematura , Caminata

RESUMEN

The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS). At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people). Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥ 9 h of cycling per day). Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.