Asunto(s)
Tasa de Natalidad , Americanos Mexicanos , Tasa de Natalidad/etnología , Tasa de Natalidad/tendencias , Demografía , Emigración e Inmigración/clasificación , Emigración e Inmigración/historia , Emigración e Inmigración/estadística & datos numéricos , Emigración e Inmigración/tendencias , Femenino , Fertilidad , Historia del Siglo XX , Humanos , Americanos Mexicanos/clasificación , Americanos Mexicanos/etnología , Americanos Mexicanos/historia , Americanos Mexicanos/psicología , Americanos Mexicanos/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
In an analysis of the consistency of self-reported age at first intercourse using longitudinal data from the National Youth Survey, 28-32% of adolescents reported an age at first intercourse inconsistent with the information they provided up to seven years later as adults. Overall, while females were the most likely to offer consistent responses (70%), while black males were the least likely to do so (27%). Multivariate analyses indicated that in addition to race and gender, some social and economic factors were significantly associated with inconsistent reporting. For example, those who lived in a two-parent household were less likely than those from a one-parent family to report an earlier age at first intercourse as adolescents than they reported as adults. After controlling for these inconsistencies, overall predictors of adolescent sexual behavior remained unchanged. Although the analysis could not determine which time period reflected more accurate data, it does suggest limitations to using self-reported data to construct estimates of adolescent sexual activity and to evaluate programs designed to alter adolescent sexual behavior.
Asunto(s)
Recolección de Datos , Psicometría , Conducta Sexual , Adolescente , Negro o Afroamericano/psicología , Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores de Edad , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Recuerdo Mental , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Revelación de la Verdad , Estados Unidos , Población Blanca/psicología , Población Blanca/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
PIP: Prior work on the determinants of the 1st-birth process can be divided into 3 approaches: 1) time-series analysis focusing on description and determinants of trends; 2) cross-sectional studies examing childlessness or adolescent fertility; and 3) life-course studies dealing with the timing of fertility relative to other events. Drawing on these traditions, the conceptual framework places the 1st-birth process within, respectively, an aggregate-time dimension indicated by period or cohort, an individual-time dimension indicatedd by the respondent's age, and a social-structural dimension indicated by the respondent's spanning the 1955-1976 period, and examining conditional birth probabilities, the analysis incorporates each of these dimensions. Each dimension is important. Aggregate time exerts powerful and pervasive effects. Socio-structural variables have nonproportinal effects--tht is, their effects vary with time. The effects of the social-structural variables tend not to interact with the aggregate-time dimension. Finally, predictive power generally declines with inndividual time.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Desarrollo Humano , Madres/psicología , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Edad Materna , Embarazo , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
This paper addresses the comparability of data from eight national fertility surveys conducted in the United States between 1955 and 1980. We examine the extent to which substantive conclusions about the levels and correlates of the timing of first birth vary across these data sources by comparing samples of women who were eligible to be included in more than one study. Results obtained from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression analyses of several measures of timing indicate few study effects. Thus findings based on data from one survey can be replicated with comparable data from another. One notable exception is the relationship between contraceptive use prior to the first birth and the timing of that birth. The contraceptive variable appears to be poorly measured, leading to unstable estimates of the relationship. In general, our results suggest: (1) the feasibility of pooling data from the various surveys when modeling delayed childbearing; and (2) reasonable accuracy in assessing trends in the timing of first birth from multiple data sources.