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Objectives: This study aimed to compare the Delta, Greenland, and Monte Carlo methods for estimating 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the population-attributable fraction (PAF). The objectives were to identify the optimal method and to determine the influence of primary parameters on PAF calculations. Methods: A dataset was simulated using hypothetical values for primary parameters (population, relative risk [RR], prevalence, and variance of the beta estimator [V(ß Ì)]) involved in PAF calculations. Three methods (Delta, Greenland, and Monte Carlo) were used to estimate the 95% CIs of the PAFs. Perturbation analysis was performed to assess the sensitivity of the PAF to changes in these parameters. An R Shiny application, the "GDM-PAF CI Explorer," was developed to facilitate the analysis and visualization of these computations. Results: No significant differences were observed among the 3 methods when both the RR and p-value were low. The Delta method performed well under conditions of low prevalence or minimal RR, while Greenland's method was effective in scenarios with high prevalence. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo method calculated 95% CIs of PAFs that were stable overall, though it required intensive computational resources. In a novel approach that utilized perturbation for sensitivity analysis, V[ß Ì] was identified as the most influential parameter in the estimation of CIs. Conclusions: This study emphasizes the necessity of a careful approach for comparing 95% CI estimation methods for PAFs and selecting the method that best suits the context. It provides practical guidelines to researchers to increase the reliability and accuracy of epidemiological studies.
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Background: Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models have been proposed as new cardiovascular risk evaluation tools. Objectives: This study evaluated the performance of SCORE/SCORE-OP and SCORE2/SCORE2-OP in the East Asian population by using population-based cohort data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) Health Screening Cohort of Korea. Methods: A total of 324,384 NHIS examinees from 2004 to 2005 were divided into 5 age groups: 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years,70-79 years, and more than 80 years. The examinees had their predicted cardiovascular disease risks calculated by using SCORE, SCORE2, SCORE-OP, and SCORE2-OP models. The low-risk model was applied on the basis of the cohort's observed event rates. The observed and predicted cardiovascular risks were compared. Results: A total of 324,384 subjects were included (mean age 51.4 ± 7.3 years; women, 37.9% for the SCORE/SCORE2 group and mean age 73.0 ± 2.8 years; women, 47.5% for the SCORE/SCORE2-OP group). Over a median follow-up of 9 years, cardiovascular events occurred in 15.0% and 28.9% in SCORE/SCORE2 and SCORE/SCORE2-OP groups, respectively. The SCORE/SCORE-OP model underestimated cardiovascular disease risk in young men (aged 40-49 years) and women (aged 40-59 years) and overestimated it in older age groups. In contrast, SCORE2/SCORE2-OP invariably overestimated the risk in all age groups and sexes. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed no improvement in Harrell's concordance index (C-index) compared with SCORE/SCORE-OP. Calibration plots favored SCORE2 over SCORE but not SCORE2-OP over SCORE-OP. Conclusions: Both SCORE2/SCORE2-OP and SCORE/SCORE-OP overestimated cardiovascular disease risk with low performance. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed slight improvement over older versions, but modifications are necessary for the East Asian population.
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INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to verify the association between ovarian cancer (OC) and reproductive- and lifestyle-related risk factors stratified by the subtype of OC. METHODS: In this matched case-control study derived from the Korean epithelial ovarian cancer study (Ko-EVE), we calculated the risk of OC subtypes using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) in a logistic regression model. RESULTS: As a result of matching, 531 cases and 2,124 controls were selected. Smoking had positive association with high-grade serous (HGS) OC (OR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.15-6.30), whereas alcohol consumption had positive association with mucinous type (MUC) (OR = 3.63, 95% CI = 1.39-9.49). Obesity (≥30 kg/m2 ) was associated with clear cell type (CLC) (OR = 4.57, 95% CI = 1.06-19.77). Spontaneous abortion was negatively associated with CLC (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.13-0.90), in contrast to HGS (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.96-2.15). Tubal ligation, hysterectomy, and oophorectomy were associated with decreased risk of HGS (OR = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.05-0.39; OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.07-0.73; OR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.08-0.97, respectively). Early menarche was strongly associated with increased risk of CLC, but not MUC (OR = 6.11, 95% CI = 1.53-24.42; OR = 3.23, 95% CI = 0.98-10.86). Further, childbirth (≥2 times) was negatively associated with endometrioid type OC and CLC (OR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.04-0.35; OR = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02-0.37, respectively). Oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy were negatively associated with OC (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.40-0.93; OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.80, respectively), and similar negative associations were also observed in HGS (OR = 0.69; OR = 0.60, respectively). Associations between family history of breast cancer and OC, regular exercise (≥5/week), and artificial abortion and OC were similar across all subtypes (OR = 3.92; OR = 0.41; OR = 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSION: A heterogeneous association between some risk factors and the incidence of each subtype of epithelial OC was observed, suggesting that the carcinogenic mechanisms of each subtype may be partly different.
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Carcinoma Endometrioide , Neoplasias Ováricas , Embarazo , Humanos , Femenino , Carcinoma Epitelial de Ovario/epidemiología , Carcinoma Epitelial de Ovario/complicaciones , Incidencia , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Neoplasias Ováricas/epidemiología , Neoplasias Ováricas/etiología , Neoplasias Ováricas/patología , Factores de Riesgo , Carcinoma Endometrioide/complicaciones , República de Corea/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify the current patterns of cancer incidence and estimate the projected cancer incidence and mortality between 2020 and 2035 in Korea. METHODS: Data on cancer incidence cases were extracted from the Korean Statistical Information Service from 2000 to 2017, and data on cancer-related deaths were extracted from the National Cancer Center from 2000 to 2018. Cancer cases and deaths were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition. For the current patterns of cancer incidence, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using the 2000 mid-year estimated population aged over 20 years and older. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the 2020 to 2035 trends in cancer. RESULTS: Overall, cancer cases were predicted to increase from 265 299 in 2020 to 474 085 in 2035 (growth rate: 1.8%). The greatest increase in the ASIR was projected for prostate cancer among male (7.84 vs. 189.53 per 100 000 people) and breast cancer among female (34.17 vs. 238.45 per 100 000 people) from 2000 to 2035. Overall cancer deaths were projected to increase from 81 717 in 2020 to 95 845 in 2035 (average annual growth rate: 1.2%). Although most cancer mortality rates were projected to decrease, those of breast, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer among female were projected to increase until 2035. CONCLUSIONS: These up-to-date projections of cancer incidence and mortality in the Korean population may be a significant resource for implementing cancer-related regulations or developing cancer treatments.