RESUMEN

Much concern has arisen regarding serious epidemics due to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus. The first MERS case of Korea was reported on 20 May 2015, and since then, the MERS outbreak in Korea has resulted in hundreds of confirmed cases and tens of deaths. Deadly infectious diseases such as MERS have significant direct and indirect social impacts, which include disease-induced mortality and economic losses. Also, a delayed response to the outbreak and underestimating its danger can further aggravate the situation. Hence, an analysis and establishing efficient strategies for preventing the propagation of MERS is a very important and urgent issue. In this paper, we propose a class of nonlinear susceptible-infectious-quarantined (SIQ) models for analyzing and controlling the MERS outbreak in Korea. For the SIQ based ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we perform the task of parameter estimation, and apply optimal control theory to the controlled SIQ model, with the goal of minimizing the infectious compartment population and the cost of implementing the quarantine and isolation strategies. Simulation results show that the proposed SIQ model can explain the observed data for the confirmed cases and the quarantined cases in the MERS outbreak very well, and the number of the MERS cases can be controlled reasonably well via the optimal control approach.

Asunto(s)

Algoritmos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Coronavirus del Síndrome Respiratorio de Oriente Medio , Dinámicas no Lineales , Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Humanos , Salud Pública/economía , Salud Pública/métodos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , República de Corea/epidemiología , Tasa de Supervivencia

RESUMEN

By incorporating a growing number of sensors and adopting machine learning technologies, wearable devices have recently become a prominent health care application domain. Among the related research topics in this field, one of the most important issues is detecting falls while walking. Since such falls may lead to serious injuries, automatically and promptly detecting them during daily use of smartphones and/or smart watches is a particular need. In this paper, we investigate the use of Gaussian process (GP) methods for characterizing dynamic walking patterns and detecting falls while walking with built-in wearable sensors in smartphones and/or smartwatches. For the task of characterizing dynamic walking patterns in a low-dimensional latent feature space, we propose a novel approach called auto-encoded Gaussian process dynamical model, in which we combine a GP-based state space modeling method with a nonlinear dimensionality reduction method in a unique manner. The Gaussian process methods are fit for this task because one of the most import strengths of the Gaussian process methods is its capability of handling uncertainty in the model parameters. Also for detecting falls while walking, we propose to recycle the latent samples generated in training the auto-encoded Gaussian process dynamical model for GP-based novelty detection, which can lead to an efficient and seamless solution to the detection task. Experimental results show that the combined use of these GP-based methods can yield promising results for characterizing dynamic walking patterns and detecting falls while walking with the wearable sensors.