RESUMEN
RESUMEN Objetivo: Desarrollar un modelo de predicción de riesgo para infección posoperatoria mayor (IPM) a cirugía cardiaca pediátrica y validar el de la Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS). Materiales y métodos: Se analizó una cohorte retrospectiva de 1025 niños sometidos a cirugía cardiaca con circulación extracorpórea (CEC) del 2000 al 2010. Se empleó un modelo de regresión logística y se validó el modelo. Resultados: De los 1025 pacientes, 59 (5,8%) tuvieron al menos un episodio de IPM (4,8% sepsis, 1% mediastinitis, 0% endocarditis). La mortalidad hospitalaria (63% vs. 13%; p<0,001), al igual que la duración de la ventilación posoperatoria (301,6 vs. 34,3 horas; p<0,001) y la estancia en la unidad de cuidados intensivos (20,9 vs. 5,1 días; p <0,001) fueron mayores en los pacientes con IPM. Los factores predictores fueron: edad, sexo, peso, cardiopatía cianótica, RACHS-1 3-4, clase funcional IV modificada por Ross, estancia hospitalaria previa y antecedente de ventilación mecánica. El modelo tuvo un c-estadístico de 0,80 (intervalo de confianza [IC] al 95%: 0,74-0,86) y es clínicamente útil. El modelo de la STS mostró un c-estadístico de 0,78 (IC 95%: 0,71-0,84) y Hosmer-Lemeshow de 18,2 (p = 0,020). Se realizó una comparación entre ambos modelos empleando una prueba exacta de Fisher. Conclusión: Se desarrolló un modelo para identificar preoperatoriamente a niños con alto riesgo de infección grave después de una cirugía cardiaca con CEC con buen desempeño y calibración. Asimismo, se validó el modelo de la STS con moderada discriminación.
ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for major postoperative infection (MPI) after pediatric heart surgery and to validate the model of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS). Materials and methods: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of 1,025 children who underwent heart surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) from 2000 to 2010. We used a logistic regression model, which was validated. Results: Of the 1,025 patients, 59 (5.8%) had at least one episode of MPI (4.8% had sepsis, 1% had mediastinitis, 0% had endocarditis). Hospital mortality (63% vs. 13%; p < 0.001), as well as duration of postoperative ventilation (301.6 vs. 34.3 hours; p < 0.001) and intensive care unit stay (20.9 vs. 5.1 days; p < 0.001) were higher in patients with MPI. The predictive factors found were age, sex, weight, cyanotic heart disease, RACHS-1 3-4, Ross-modified functional class IV, previous hospital stay, and previous history of mechanical ventilation. The proposed model had a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and was considered as clinically useful. The STS model showed a c-statistic of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow of 18.2 (P = 0.020). A comparison between the two models was made using an accurate Fisher test. Conclusion: A model with good performance and calibration was developed to preoperatively identify children at high risk for severe infection after cardiac surgery with CPB. The STS model was also validated and was found to have a moderate discrimination performance.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Cirugía Torácica , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Infecciones , Complicaciones Posoperatorias , Salud Infantil , Circulación Extracorporea , PredicciónRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for major postoperative infection (MPI) after pediatric heart surgery and to validate the model of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of 1,025 children who underwent heart surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) from 2000 to 2010. We used a logistic regression model, which was validated. RESULTS: Of the 1,025 patients, 59 (5.8%) had at least one episode of MPI (4.8% had sepsis, 1% had mediastinitis, 0% had endocarditis). Hospital mortality (63% vs. 13%; p < 0.001), as well as duration of postoperative ventilation (301.6 vs. 34.3 hours; p < 0.001) and intensive care unit stay (20.9 vs. 5.1 days; p < 0.001) were higher in patients with MPI. The predictive factors found were age, sex, weight, cyanotic heart disease, RACHS-1 3-4, Ross-modified functional class IV, previous hospital stay, and previous history of mechanical ventilation. The proposed model had a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and was considered as clinically useful. The STS model showed a c-statistic of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow of 18.2 (P = 0.020). A comparison between the two models was made using an accurate Fisher test. CONCLUSION: A model with good performance and calibration was developed to preoperatively identify children at high risk for severe infection after cardiac surgery with CPB. The STS model was also validated and was found to have a moderate discrimination performance.
OBJETIVO: Desarrollar un modelo de predicción de riesgo para infección posoperatoria mayor (IPM) a cirugía cardiaca pediátrica y validar el de la Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS). MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Se analizó una cohorte retrospectiva de 1025 niños sometidos a cirugía cardiaca con circulación extracorpórea (CEC) del 2000 al 2010. Se empleó un modelo de regresión logística y se validó el modelo. RESULTADOS: De los 1025 pacientes, 59 (5,8%) tuvieron al menos un episodio de IPM (4,8% sepsis, 1% mediastinitis, 0% endocarditis). La mortalidad hospitalaria (63% vs. 13%; p < 0,001), al igual que la duración de la ventilación posoperatoria (301,6 vs. 34,3 horas; p < 0,001) y la estancia en la unidad de cuidados intensivos (20,9 vs. 5,1 días; p < 0,001) fueron mayores en los pacientes con IPM. Los factores predictores fueron: edad, sexo, peso, cardiopatía cianótica, RACHS-1 3-4, clase funcional IV modificada por Ross, estancia hospitalaria previa y antecedente de ventilación mecánica. El modelo tuvo un c-estadístico de 0,80 (intervalo de confianza [IC] al 95%: 0,74-0,86) y es clínicamente útil. El modelo de la STS mostró un c-estadístico de 0,78 (IC 95%: 0,71-0,84) y Hosmer-Lemeshow de 18,2 (p = 0,020). Se realizó una comparación entre ambos modelos empleando una prueba exacta de Fisher. CONCLUSIÓN: Se desarrolló un modelo para identificar preoperatoriamente a niños con alto riesgo de infección grave después de una cirugía cardiaca con CEC con buen desempeño y calibración. Asimismo, se validó el modelo de la STS con moderada discriminación.
Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Infección de la Herida Quirúrgica , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Estadísticos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Infección de la Herida Quirúrgica/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The aim of this study was to identify predictive factors and develop a model to assess individualized risk of postnatal surgical intervention in patients with antenatal hydronephrosis. This is a retrospective cohort study of 694 infants with prenatally detected congenital anomalies of kidney and urinary tract with a median follow-up time of 37 months. The main event of interest was postnatal surgical intervention. A predictive model was developed using Cox model with internal validation by bootstrap technique. Of 694 patients, 164 (24%) infants underwent surgical intervention in a median age of 7.8 months. Predictors of the surgical intervention in the model were: baseline glomerular filtration rate, associated hydronephrosis, presence of renal damage and the severity of renal pelvic dilatation. The optimism corrected c statistic for the model was 0.84 (95%CI, 0.82-0.87). The predictive model may contribute to identify infants at high risk for surgical intervention. Further studies are necessary to validate the model in patients from other settings.
RESUMEN
Background: Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin plus a P2Y12 inhibitor prevents ischaemic events after coronary stenting, but increases bleeding. Guidelines support weighting bleeding risk before the selection of treatment duration, but no standardised tool exists for this purpose. Methods: A total of 14 963 patients treated with DAPT after coronary stentinglargely consisting of aspirin and clopidogrel and without indication to oral anticoagulationwere pooled at a single-patient level from eight multicentre randomised clinical trials with independent adjudication of events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified predictors of out-of-hospital Thrombosis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major or minor bleeding stratified by trial, and developed a numerical bleeding risk score. The predictive performance of the novel score was assessed in the derivation cohort and validated in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial (n=8595) and BernPCI registry (n=6172). The novel score was assessed within patients randomised to different DAPT durations (n=10 081) to identify the effect on bleeding and ischaemia of a long (1224 months) or short (36 months) treatment in relation to baseline bleeding risk...
Asunto(s)
Administración del Tratamiento Farmacológico , Corazón , Pacientes , Stents Liberadores de Fármacos , TerapéuticaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical profile and long-term mortality in SYNTAX score II based strata of patients who received percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) in contemporary randomized trials. BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score II was developed in the randomized, all-comers' SYNTAX trial population and is composed by 2 anatomical and 6 clinical variables. The interaction of these variables with the treatment provides individual long-term mortality predictions if a patient undergoes coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or PCI. METHODS: Patient-level (n=5433) data from 7 contemporary coronary drug-eluting stent (DES) trials were pooled. The mortality for CABG or PCI was estimated for every patient. The difference in mortality estimates for these two revascularization strategies was used to divide the patients into three groups of theoretical treatment recommendations: PCI, CABG or PCI/CABG (the latter means equipoise between CABG and PCI for long term mortality). RESULTS: The three groups had marked differences in their baseline characteristics. According to the predicted risk differences, 5115 patients could be treated either by PCI or CABG, 271 should be treated only by PCI and, rarely, CABG (n=47) was recommended. At 3-year follow-up, according to the SYNTAX score II recommendations, patients recommended for CABG had higher mortality compared to the PCI and PCI/CABG groups (17.4%; 6.1% and 5.3%, respectively; P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The SYNTAX score II demonstrated capability to help in stratifying PCI procedures.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/cirugía , Stents Liberadores de Fármacos , Intervención Coronaria Percutánea/métodos , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/mortalidad , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Salud Global , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Tasa de Supervivencia/tendencias , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
AIMS: To prospectively validate the SYNTAX Score II and forecast the outcomes of the randomized Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization (EXCEL) Trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus Eluting Stent vs. Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization is a prospective, randomized multicenter trial designed to establish the efficacy and safety of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the everolimus-eluting stent compared with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in subjects with unprotected left-main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease and low-intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (<33). After completion of patient recruitment in EXCEL, the SYNTAX Score II was prospectively applied to predict 4-year mortality in the CABG and PCI arms. The 95% prediction intervals (PIs) for mortality were computed using simulation with bootstrap resampling (10 000 times). For the entire study cohort, the 4-year predicted mortalities were 8.5 and 10.5% in the PCI and CABG arms, respectively [odds ratios (OR) 0.79; 95% PI 0.43-1.50). In subjects with low (≤22) anatomical SYNTAX scores, the predicted OR was 0.69 (95% PI 0.34-1.45); in intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (23-32), the predicted OR was 0.93 (95% PI 0.53-1.62). Based on 4-year mortality predictions in EXCEL, clinical characteristics shifted long-term mortality predictions either in favour of PCI (older age, male gender and COPD) or CABG (younger age, lower creatinine clearance, female gender, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction). CONCLUSION: The SYNTAX Score II indicates at least an equipoise for long-term mortality between CABG and PCI in subjects with ULMCA disease up to an intermediate anatomical complexity. Both anatomical and clinical characteristics had a clear impact on long-term mortality predictions and decision making between CABG and PCI.
Asunto(s)
Puente de Arteria Coronaria/métodos , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/terapia , Stents Liberadores de Fármacos , Everolimus/administración & dosificación , Inmunosupresores/administración & dosificación , Intervención Coronaria Percutánea/métodos , Anciano , Puente de Arteria Coronaria/mortalidad , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/mortalidad , Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Revascularización Miocárdica/métodos , Revascularización Miocárdica/mortalidad , Intervención Coronaria Percutánea/mortalidad , Enfermedades Vasculares Periféricas/complicaciones , Enfermedades Vasculares Periféricas/mortalidad , Estudios Prospectivos , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/complicaciones , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/mortalidad , Índice de Severidad de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
CONTEXT: Medical schools in Western societies seek measures to increase the diversity of their student bodies with respect to ethnicity and social background. Currently, little is known about the effects of different selection procedures on student diversity. OBJECTIVES: This prospective cohort study aimed to determine performance differences between traditional and non-traditional (i.e. ethnic minority and first-generation university candidates) medical school applicants in academic and non-academic selection criteria. METHODS: Applicants in 2013 (n = 703) were assessed on academic and non-academic selection criteria. They also completed a questionnaire on ethnicity and social background. Main outcome measures were 'not selected' (i.e. failure on any criteria), 'failure on academic criteria' and 'failure on non-academic criteria'. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by logistic regression analysis for ethnic subgroups (Surinamese/Antillean, Turkish/Moroccan/African, Asian, Western) compared with Dutch applicants, adjusted for age, gender, additional socio-demographic variables (first-generation immigrant, first-generation university applicant, first language, medical doctor as parent) and pre-university grade point average (pu-GPA). Similar analyses were performed for first-generation university applicants. RESULTS: Compared with Dutch applicants, Surinamese/Antillean applicants underperformed in the selection procedure (failure rate: 78% versus 57%; adjusted OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.07-5.94), in particular on academic criteria (failure rate: 66% versus 34%; adjusted OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.41-6.41). The higher failure rate of first-generation university applicants on academic criteria (50% versus 37%; unadjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.18-2.33) was partly explained by additional socio-demographic variables and pu-GPA. The outcome measure 'failure on non-academic criteria' showed no significant differences among the ethnic or social subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of differences on non-academic criteria was promising with reference to increasing social and ethnic diversity; however, the possibility that self-selection instigated by the selection procedure is stronger in applicants from non-traditional backgrounds cannot be ruled out. Further research should also focus on why cognitive tests might favour traditional applicants.