RESUMEN
The seasonally determined demographic structure of two semi-arid rodents, both agricultural pest species (the leaf-eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) in Chile and the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) in Tanzania), is analysed using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) statistical models and measures for elasticity (the relative change in the growth rate due to a relative unit change in the parameter of concern) derived from projection linear matrix models. We demonstrate that reproduction and survival during the breeding season contribute approximately equally to population growth in the leaf-eared mouse, whereas the multimammate mouse is characterized by a more clearly defined seasonal structure into breeding and non-breeding seasons and that reproduction contributes far more than survival during the breeding season. On this basis, we discuss evolutionary and applied (pest control) issues. Regarding the evolution of life histories (leading to a maximization of the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that for the leaf-eared mouse, features favouring survival throughout the year will provide selective value, but that during the main breeding season, features favouring reproduction and survival are about equally favourable. For the multimammate mouse, features favouring survival are particularly important outside the breeding season, whereas during the breeding season features favouring reproduction are more important. Regarding pest control (aiming at reducing the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that (ignoring economic considerations) affecting survival outside the main breeding season is particularly effective for the leaf-eared mouse, a feature that is even more the case for the multimammate mouse. In sum, we demonstrate through this comparative study that much is to be learnt from studying the dynamics of fluctuating small rodents-a focal issue within much of population ecology.
Asunto(s)
Modelos Biológicos , Muridae/fisiología , Control de Plagas/métodos , Reproducción/fisiología , Estaciones del Año , Animales , Evolución Biológica , Chile , Ambiente , Dinámica Poblacional , TanzaníaRESUMEN
Understanding the role of interactions between intrinsic feedback loops and external climatic forces is one of the central challenges within the field of population ecology. For rodent dynamics, the seasonal structure of the environment necessitates changes between two stages: reproductive and non-reproductive. Nevertheless, the interactions between seasonality, climate, density dependence and predators have been generally ignored. We demonstrate that direct climate effects, the nonlinear effect of predators and the nonlinear first-order feedback embedded in a seasonal structure are key elements underlying the large and irregular fluctuations in population numbers exhibited by a small rodent in a semi-arid region of central Chile. We found that factors influencing population growth rates clearly differ between breeding and non-breeding seasons. In addition, we detected nonlinear density dependencies as well as nonlinear and differential effects of generalist and specialist predators. Recent climatic changes may account for dramatic perturbations of the rodent's population dynamics. Changes in the predator guild induced by climate are likely to result, through the food web, in a large impact on small rodent demography and population dynamics. Assuming such interactions to be typical of ecological systems, we conclude that appropriate predictions of the ecological consequences of climate change will depend on having an in-depth understanding of the community-weather system.