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True linear relationships are rare in clinical data. Despite this, linearity is often assumed during analyses, leading to potentially biased estimates and inaccurate conclusions. In this introductory paper, we aim to first describe - in a non-mathematical manner - how to identify non-linear relationships. Various methods are then discussed that can be applied to deal with non-linearity, including transformations, polynomials, splines, and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), along with their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we illustrate the use of these methods with a practical example from nephrology, providing guidance on how to report the results from non-linear relationships.

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Soluble decoy receptors (DR) are circulating proteins that act as molecular traps for ligands that modulate various signalling pathways. These proteins can be exploited as biomarkers and, in some cases, as drugs in various disease contexts. Inflammation is a key area where DRs have shown significant potential. By binding to pro-inflammatory cytokines, inflammatory DRs, such as soluble tumour necrosis factor receptors (sTNFRs), can inhibit downstream inflammatory signalling. This modulation of the inflammatory response holds promise for therapeutic interventions in various inflammatory conditions, including cardiovascular and chronic kidney diseases. Soluble DRs for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) bind to advanced glycation end products (AGEs), reducing their detrimental effects on vascular function and atherosclerosis. High circulating sRAGE levels are associated with a lower risk for CV events, highlighting the potential of these soluble receptors for assessing the role of AGEs in CV diseases and managing the attendant risk. DRs may serve as biomarkers and therapeutic agents to advance our understanding of disease mechanisms and improve patients' outcomes. Their ability to modulate signalling pathways in a controlled manner opens up new opportunities for therapeutic interventions in various diseases, ranging from inflammation to cardiovascular and renal disorders.

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BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Young adults starting kidney replacement therapy (KRT) during childhood and reaching their 18th birthday (i.e. adult survivors of childhood KRT) form a challenging population of interest to nephrologists treating adults, as during this period there will be a transition to adult renal centres. Nonetheless, few studies have focused on the epidemiology of KRT in this group. We aimed to provide an update on these patients' characteristics, treatment history, graft and patient survival, to report their 5-year prognosis, and expected remaining lifetime. METHODS: Data on KRT patients reaching their 18th birthday in 2008-2019 were collected from 21 European countries/regions providing individual patient data to the European Renal Association (ERA) Registry. Patient characteristics and treatment trajectories were examined before and after turning 18 years. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression were used for patient and graft survival analyses. RESULTS: In total, 2944 patients were included. The proportion of adult survivors initiating KRT at a very young age (0-4 years), and undergoing pre-emptive kidney transplantation increased. Unadjusted 5-year patient survival was 96.9% (95% CI: 96.2-97.5). Dialysis patients had a higher risk of death than kidney transplant recipients (adjusted hazard ratio 5.44 (95% CI: 3.34-8.86)). Between ages 18 and 23 years, about 21% of the adult survivors lost their kidney transplant and 34% of the dialysis patients continued this treatment. Compared with the general population, life expectancy for eighteen-year-old kidney transplant and dialysis patients was 17 and 40 years shorter, respectively. CONCLUSION: Life expectancy of 18-year-old kidney transplant recipients was lower compared with the general population. Yet, having a functioning kidney graft at age 18 years resulted in better outcomes than being on dialysis. Nevertheless, between ages 18 and 23 years, about one-fifth of the kidney grafts failed and one-third of the patients remained on dialysis.

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The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its risk factors are projected to rise in parallel with the rapidly ageing global population. By 2050, the prevalence of CKD category G3-G5 may exceed 10% in some regions, resulting in substantial health and economic burdens that will disproportionately affect lower-income countries. The extent to which the CKD epidemic can be mitigated depends largely on the uptake of prevention efforts to address modifiable risk factors, the implementation of cost-effective screening programmes for early detection of CKD in high-risk individuals and widespread access and affordability of new-generation kidney-protective drugs to prevent the development and delay the progression of CKD. Older patients require a multidisciplinary integrated approach to manage their multimorbidity, polypharmacy, high rates of adverse outcomes, mental health, fatigue and other age-related symptoms. In those who progress to kidney failure, comprehensive conservative management should be offered as a viable option during the shared decision-making process to collaboratively determine a treatment approach that respects the values and wishes of the patient. Interventions that maintain or improve quality of life, including pain management and palliative care services when appropriate, should also be made available.

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Patients with kidney disease have an uncertain future with prognosis varying greatly per patient. To get a better idea of what the future holds and tailor interventions to the individual patient, prediction models can be of great value. Before a prediction model can be applied in practice, its performance should be measured in target populations of interest (i.e., external validation) and whether it helps improve clinical practice (i.e., whether it impacts clinical practice) should be determined. The impact would ideally be determined using an impact trial, but such a trial is often not feasible, and the impact of prediction models is therefore rarely assessed. As a result, prediction models that may not be so impactful may end up in clinical practice and impactful models may not be implemented due to a lack of impact studies. Ultimately, many prediction models end up never being implemented, resulting in much research waste. To allow researchers to get an indication of a prediction model's impact on clinical practice, alternative methods to assess a prediction model's impact are important. In this paper, we discuss several alternatives, including interviews, case-based surveys, decision comparisons, outcome modelling, before-after analyses, and decision curve analyses. We discuss the general idea behind these approaches, including what information can be gathered from such studies and important pitfalls. Lastly, we provide examples of the different alternatives.

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BACKGROUND: In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in kidney replacement therapy (KRT) services worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on the incidence of KRT, kidney transplantation activity, mortality and prevalence of KRT across Europe. METHODS: Patients receiving KRT were included from 17 countries providing data to the European Renal Association Registry. The epidemiology of KRT in 2020 was compared with average data from the period 2017-2019. Also changes occurring during the first and second wave of the pandemic were explored. RESULTS: The incidence of KRT was 6.2% lower in 2020 compared with 2017-2019, with the lowest point (-22.7%) during the first wave in April. The decrease varied across countries, was smaller in males (-5.2%) than in females (-8.2%), and was moderate for peritoneal dialysis (-3.7%) and haemodialysis (-5.4%), but substantial for pre-emptive kidney transplantation (-23.6%). The kidney transplantation rate decreased by 22.5%, reaching a nadir of -80.1% during the first wave, and most for living donor kidney transplants (-30.5%). While in most countries the kidney transplantation rate decreased, in the Nordic/Baltic countries and Greece there was no clear decline. In dialysis patients, mortality increased by 11.4%, and was highest in those aged 65-74 years (16.1%), in those with diabetes as primary renal disease (15.1%), and in those on haemodialysis (12.4%). In transplant recipients, the mortality was 25.8% higher, but there were no subgroups that stood out. In contrast to the rising prevalence of KRT observed over the past decades across Europe, the prevalence at the end of 2020 (N=317787) resembled that of 2019 (N=317077). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the incidence of KRT, kidney transplant activity, mortality of KRT, and prevalence of KRT in Europe with variations across countries.

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This paper discusses the use of biomarkers in clinical practice and biomedical research. Biomarkers are measurable characteristics that can be used to indicate the presence or absence of a disease or to track the progression of a disease. They can also be used to predict how a patient will respond to a particular treatment. Biomarkers have enriched clinical practice and disease prognosis by providing measurable characteristics that indicate biological processes. They offer valuable insights into disease susceptibility, progression, and treatment response, aiding drug development and personalized medicine. However, developing and implementing biomarkers come with challenges that must be addressed. Rigorous testing, standardization of assays, and consideration of ethical factors are crucial in ensuring the reliability and validity of biomarkers. Reliability is vital in biomarker research. It ensures accurate measurements by preventing biases and facilitating robust correlations with outcomes. Conversely, validation examines which and how many biomarkers correspond to theoretical constructs and external criteria, establishing their predictive value. Multiple biomarkers are sometimes necessary to represent the complex relationship between exposure and disease outcomes accurately. Susceptibility factors are pivotal in disease states' complex interaction among genetic and environmental factors. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of these factors is essential for effectively interpreting biomarker data and maximizing their clinical usefulness. Using well-validated biomarkers can improve diagnoses, more effective treatment evaluations, and enhanced disease prediction. This, in turn, will contribute to better patient outcomes and drive progress in medicine.

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BACKGROUND: Preemptive kidney transplantation has better outcomes when compared to transplantation after dialysis. We aimed to examine trends in preemptive kidney transplantation between 2000 and 2019 in Europe and to provide an overview of associated policies, barriers and initiatives. METHODS: Adult patients from 12 European countries who received a preemptive kidney transplant were included. The representatives of the registries providing these data were questioned on the policies, barriers and initiatives around preemptive kidney transplantation. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2019, 20 251 adults underwent preemptive kidney transplantation (11 169 from living donors, 8937 from deceased donors). The proportion of first kidney transplantations that were preemptive more than doubled from 7% in 2000 to 18% in 2019, reflecting a similar relative increase for living donor kidney recipients (from 21% to 43%) and deceased donor kidney recipients (from 4% to 11%). Large international differences were found. The increase in preemptive kidney transplantation was observed across all age, sex and primary renal disease groups. Countries had similar criteria for preemptive waitlisting. Barriers mentioned included donor shortage, late referral to the transplant center and long donor or recipient work-up. Suggested initiatives included raising awareness on the possibility of preemptive kidney transplantation, earlier start and shorter work-up time for recipient and living donor. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last two decades the proportion of patients receiving a first kidney transplant preemptively has more than doubled, reflecting a similar relative increase for living and deceased donor kidney recipients.

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Background: The European Renal Association (ERA) Registry collects data on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). This paper is a summary of the ERA Registry Annual Report 2021, including a comparison across treatment modalities. Methods: Data was collected from 54 national and regional registries from 36 countries, of which 35 registries from 18 countries contributed individual patient data and 19 registries from 19 countries contributed aggregated data. Using this data, incidence and prevalence of KRT, kidney transplantation rates, survival probabilities and expected remaining lifetimes were calculated. Result: In 2021, 533.2 million people in the general population were covered by the ERA Registry. The incidence of KRT was 145 per million population (pmp). In incident patients, 55% were 65 years or older, 64% were male, and the most common primary renal disease (PRD) was diabetes (22%). The prevalence of KRT was 1040 pmp. In prevalent patients, 47% were 65 years or older, 62% were male, and the most common PRDs were diabetes and glomerulonephritis/sclerosis (both 16%). On 31 December 2021, 56% of patients received haemodialysis, 5% received peritoneal dialysis, and 39% were living with a functioning graft. The kidney transplantation rate in 2021 was 37 pmp, a majority coming from deceased donors (66%). For patients initiating KRT between 2012-2016, 5-year survival probability was 52%. Compared to the general population, life expectancy was 65% and 68% shorter for males and females receiving dialysis, and 40% and 43% shorter for males and females living with a functioning graft.

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BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: This paper compares the most recent data on the incidence and prevalence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), kidney transplantation rates, and mortality on KRT from Europe to those from the United States (US), including comparisons of treatment modalities (haemodialysis (HD), peritoneal dialysis (PD), and kidney transplantation (KTx)). METHODS: Data were derived from the annual reports of the European Renal Association (ERA) Registry and the United States Renal Data System (USRDS). The European data include information from national and regional renal registries providing the ERA Registry with individual patient data. Additional analyses were performed to present results for all participating European countries together. RESULTS: In 2021, the KRT incidence in the US (409.7 per million population (pmp)) was almost 3-fold higher than in Europe (144.4 pmp). Despite the substantial difference in KRT incidence, approximately the same proportion of patients initiated HD (Europe: 82%, US: 84%), PD (14%; 13% respectively), or underwent pre-emptive KTx (4%; 3% respectively). The KRT prevalence in the US (2436.1 pmp) was 2-fold higher than in Europe (1187.8 pmp). Within Europe, approximately half of all prevalent patients were living with a functioning graft (47%), while in the US, this was one third (32%). The number of kidney transplantations performed was almost twice as high in the US (77.0 pmp) compared to Europe (41.6 pmp). The mortality of patients receiving KRT was 1.6-fold higher in the US (157.3 per 1000 patient years) compared to Europe (98.7 per 1000 patient years). CONCLUSIONS: The US had a much higher KRT incidence, prevalence, and mortality compared to Europe, and despite a higher kidney transplantation rate, a lower proportion of prevalent patients with a functioning graft.

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BACKGROUND: Primary glomerular disease (PGD) is a major cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) leading to kidney replacement therapy (KRT). We aimed to describe incidence (trends) in individuals starting KRT for ESKD due to PGD and to examine their survival and causes of death. METHODS: We used data from the European Renal Association (ERA) Registry on 69 854 patients who started KRT for ESKD due to PGD between 2000 and 2019. ERA primary renal disease codes were used to define six PGD subgroups. We examined age and sex standardized incidence, trend of the incidence and survival. RESULTS: The standardized incidence of KRT for ESKD due to PGD was 16.6 per million population (pmp), ranging from 8.6 pmp in Serbia to 20.0 pmp in France. Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) had the highest incidences, of 4.6 pmp and 2.6 pmp, respectively. Histologically non-examined PGDs represented over 50% of cases in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Romania and were also common in Greece, Estonia, Belgium and Sweden. The incidence declined from 18.6 pmp in 2000 to 14.5 pmp in 2013, after which it stabilized. All PGD subgroups had 5-year survival probabilities above 50%, with crescentic glomerulonephritis having the highest risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio 1.8 (95% confidence interval 1.6-1.9)] compared with IgAN. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death (33.9%). CONCLUSION: The incidence of KRT for ESKD due to PGD showed large differences between countries and was highest and increasing for IgAN and FSGS. Lack of kidney biopsy facilities in some countries may have affected accurate assignment of the cause of ESKD. The recognition of the incidence and outcomes of KRT among different PGD subgroups may contribute to a more individualized patient care approach.

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BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to provide an overview of age, sex and primary renal disease (PRD) distribution among first kidney transplant recipients across Europe. METHOD: The European Renal Association (ERA) Registry database was used to obtain data on patients aged 20 years or older receiving their first kidney transplant between 2010 and 2019 from 12 European countries. The numbers and percentages of recipients in each age, sex and PRD group were calculated by country, donor type and year. RESULTS: In total, 99 543 adults received a first kidney transplant. Overall, 23% of the recipients were 65 years or older, 36% were female, and 21% had glomerulonephritis and 15% diabetes mellitus as PRD. Compared with deceased donor kidney transplant recipients, living donor kidney transplant recipients were less often 65 years or older (13% versus 26%), more often had glomerulonephritis (25% versus 20%) and less often diabetes mellitus (8% versus 17%) as PRD. We found large international differences, which were most prominent for age and PRD and less prominent for sex. Over time, the largest change in recipient characteristics was observed for the percentage of recipients aged 65 years or older, increasing from 18% in 2010 to 28% in 2019 for all countries combined with a similar trend in most countries. CONCLUSION: We observed large differences for age and PRD distribution between recipients of living and deceased donor kidneys and between European countries. Over time, the percentage of older first kidney transplant recipients increased.

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Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared with the general population, but gender differences in this risk, especially in older adults, are not fully known. We aim to identify gender differences in the risk of MACE in older European CKD patients, and explore factors that may explain these differences. Methods: The European Quality study (EQUAL) is a prospective study on stage 4-5 CKD patients, ≥65 years old, not on dialysis, from Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK. Cox regression and cumulative incidence competing risk curves were used to identify gender differences in MACE risks. Mediation analysis was used to identify variables which may explain risk differences between men and women. Results: A total of 417 men out of 1134 (37%) and 185 women out of 602 women (31%) experienced at least one MACE, over a follow-up period of 5 years. Women had an 18% lower risk of first MACE compared with men (hazard ratio 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.97; P = .02), which was attenuated after adjusting for pre-existing cardiometabolic comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors. There were no significant gender differences in the risk of recurrent MACE or fatal MACE. The risk difference in MACE by gender was larger in patients aged 65-75 years, compared with patients over 75 years. Conclusions: In a cohort of older adults with advanced CKD, women had lower risks of MACE. These risk differences were partially explained by pre-existing cardiometabolic comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors.

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The 'legacy effect' refers to the long-term benefits of intensive therapy that are observed long after the end of clinical trials and trial interventions in chronic diseases such as diabetes, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. It emphasizes the importance of intensive treatment to prevent long-term complications and mortality. In chronic kidney disease (CKD), the legacy effect is evident in various studies. Long-term nephroprotection in diabetes is well documented in major studies in the early stages of diabetes, such as Diabetes Control and Complications Trial-Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT-EDIC), UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and Intensified Multifactorial Intervention in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Microalbuminuria (STENO-2). These studies highlight the importance of intensive glycaemic control in reducing microvascular complications, including nephropathy, in patients with recently diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes. However, the legacy effect is less evident in patients with long-term, established diabetes. In chronic glomerulonephritis, studies on immunoglobulin A nephropathy showed that early immunosuppressive treatment could have long-term beneficial effects on kidney function in children and adults with CKD. The Frequent Hemodialysis (FH) and the EXerCise Introduction To Enhance Performance in Dialysis (EXCITE) trials indicated that frequent haemodialysis and a personalized walking exercise program could improve clinical outcomes and reduce the long-term risk of death and hospitalization. The legacy effect concept underscores the importance of intensive intervention in chronic diseases, including CKD. This concept has significant implications for public health and warrants in-depth basic and clinical research to be better understood and exploited in clinical practice. However, its limitations should be considered when interpreting long-term observational data collected after a clinical trial. Appropriate study designs are necessary to investigate an unbiased legacy effect.