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Mathematical models are increasingly used throughout infectious disease outbreaks to guide control measures. In this review article, we focus on the initial stages of an outbreak, when a pathogen has just been observed in a new location (e.g., a town, region or country). We provide a beginner's guide to two methods for estimating the risk that introduced cases lead to sustained local transmission (i.e., the probability of a major outbreak), as opposed to the outbreak fading out with only a small number of cases. We discuss how these simple methods can be extended for epidemiological models with any level of complexity, facilitating their wider use, and describe how estimates of the probability of a major outbreak can be used to guide pathogen surveillance and control strategies. We also give an overview of previous applications of these approaches. This guide is intended to help quantitative researchers develop their own epidemiological models and use them to estimate the risks associated with pathogens arriving in new host populations. The development of these models is crucial for future outbreak preparedness. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

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The use of archival depth telemetry as a means of remotely assessing the reproductive rates of free-ranging fishes is explored. This is achieved by electronically tracking the vertical movements of individual female small spotted catsharks Scyliorhinus canicula in the natural environment, whilst simultaneously evaluating the temporal and vertical distributions of egg-laying in this species. Distinctive patterns of short-term (0·3-3·7 h), shallow-water activity are documented in the time-depth profiles of female S. canicula that occur at an appropriate depth (1·0-2·3 m) and periodicity (every 10-12 days) to represent egg-laying behaviour. Putative egg-laying behaviour was exhibited simultaneously by two individually tracked female S. canicula during late-spring and early-summer. The results highlight that, provided species behaviour is suitable and complementary methods such as previous data, laboratory experiments and field surveys can be used to validate the patterns observed, archival depth telemetry offers an unobtrusive means by which egg production and egg-laying behaviour of free-living fishes can be estimated. As precise information regarding life-history parameters is difficult to obtain for free-ranging fish species, this technique could be used to improve the parameterization of species demographic models that are relevant to the management of wild fish populations.

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Dermal denticles are unique tooth-like structures embedded in the skin of sharks and rays that protect them from predators and ectoparasites, reduce mechanical abrasion and possibly minimize swimming-induced drag. Here, we show that juvenile lesser spotted dogfish (Scyliorhinus canicula) also use this body armour to anchor food items near their tail so that bite-sized pieces can be torn away by rapid jaw and head movements. This scale-rasp behaviour is novel among fishes and suggests a new role for skin in the feeding ecology of sharks. Scale rasping may be important ecologically because it could function to increase the dietary breadth and growth potential of juveniles.

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Comparatively little is known about reproductive behaviour in wild sharks as it has proved extremely difficult to study, especially in large pelagic sharks. Here we describe annual courtship-like behaviour in the second-largest fish species, the basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus), from 25 separate episodes observed and tracked during a five-year study period (1995-1999) off south-west England. Social behaviours observed between paired, or three or four, sharks were consistent with courtship behaviours seen in other shark species, namely nose-to-tail following, close following, close flank approach, parallel and echelon swimming. Mature individuals between 5 and 8 m total body length (L(T)) exhibited these behaviours whereas smaller sharks (3-4 m L(T)) did not. Lead individuals were identified as female on a number of occasions and interactions were prolonged; the longest continuous observation of socializing was 1.8 h, although intermittent track data indicates bouts may last for up to 5-6 h. Locations of courtship-like behaviour events were not distributed randomly and were significantly associated with thermal fronts. Our results indicate that putative courtship behaviour occurs between May and July along oceanographic fronts, probably as a consequence of individuals aggregating to forage in rich prey patches before initiating courtship. Thus, locating the richest prey patches along fronts may be important for basking sharks to find mates as well as food in the pelagic ecosystem. As courtship-like behaviours occur annually off south-west England we speculate that this region may represent an annual breeding area for this protected species, but mating itself probably takes place at depth as it was not seen at the surface.

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The effect of a novel lairage environment on the ability of sheep to recover from 16 h of transport was investigated. Sheep were transported from grass paddocks to either novel outside paddocks or inside pens, and housed groups were transported to either familiar or novel inside pens. During transport, sheep from outside paddocks lay down less than those from inside pens. In sheep transported to inside pens, those from outside paddocks spent more time lying and spent less time eating; hay and water intakes during the first 12 h post-transport were lower than those previously kept inside. There was no obvious effect of a novel environment post-transport on blood biochemistry, suggesting that the lower post-transport feed and water intakes in a novel environment did not have a significant effect on the ability of the sheep to recover from the feed and water deprivation associated with transport.

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Lateral cervical spine films of 227 patients examined over 2 years were analyzed to determine the thickness of the soft tissues anterior to C2 through C4. These measurements were correlated with patient age, sex, weight, shoulder width, neck width, and calculated radiographic magnification. We found that only patient weight and age had any statistically significant effect on the soft tissue thickness. A stepwise regression model produced a simple equation for predicting the mean value of the soft tissue thickness (specifically at C3) using the patient's age and weight: C3 width = 3.7 mm-0.02 x age (years) + 0.01 x weight (pounds). Using this formula we determined that weight and age account for 28% of the observed variability in the soft tissue measurements at C3. These relationships were similar at C2 and C4. Interestingly, patient sex and radiographic magnification had no detectable effect on the measured widths.

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Fifty-five patients with clinical suspicion of injury to their anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) were examined by graded stress radiography before arthroscopic verification in an effort to determine the loss of ACL function as a result of ligament tearing. Using a commercially available stress device capable of applying varying pressures to the mid-calf, anterior drawers were measured from lateral radiographs at 0-, 7-, 14-, and 21-kiloPascal pressures and used to calculate the equivalent elastic modulus of the remaining ACL fibers. According to viscoelastic theory, this modulus is proportional to the number of elastically active fibers in the ligament. To verify the validity of this concept, the stress-strain relationship of a freshly excised ACL ligament was examined in a tensile testing machine, and the procedure was repeated after the ligament had been partially transsected with a scalpel. Comparison with the elastic modulus of the (intact) ACL of the opposite knee permits an estimate of the percentage of rupture in cases of partial tears. Overstretched ligaments show essentially normal viscoelastic properties once the slack in the ligament has been taken up. Complete tears, on the other hand, show a complete breakdown in the viscoelastic properties of the ACL. The results show that partial tears can be diagnosed by graded stress radiography with a sensitivity of 20% and specificity of 90%. Diagnosis of overstretched ligaments had sensitivity of 50% and specificity of 94%. Complete tears were detected with sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 75% as diagnosed against all other ACL lesions and including normals.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

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The effect of verapamil 120 mg t.d.s. was compared with propranolol 160 mg b.d. in the treatment of stable angina pectoris. Nineteen patients were studied in a randomized, double-blind, crossover trial, using patient diaries, exercise-testing and ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring. Both drugs were given for 1 month. On average the number of attacks of angina was reduced equally by verapamil and propranolol. The degree of electrocardiographic evidence of myocardial ischaemia was decreased by the same amount, but verapamil was significantly more effective in prolonging the exercise time. Both drugs reduced the number of episodes of ST-segment depression during 24 hours of ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring, which was analyzed in nine patients. It is concluded that verapamil compares very favourably with propranolol in the treatment of stable angina, and is more beneficial in improving exercise capacity.

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Cardiac conduction disorders caused sudden serious illnesses in six infants that might have been fatal if diagnosis and treatment had been delayed. These cases provide circumstantial evidence to support a link between cardiac conduction disorders and some sudden infant deaths. A further potential long-term effect of these disorders is illustrated in one child in whom psychomotor retardation seemed to develop after an episode of cerebral hypoxia that was probably by an arrhythmia associated with the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Cardiac conduction disorders may be detected by routine neonatal ECG screening, and it may therefore be appropriate to start prophylactic antiarrhythmic treatment in certain children before clinical signs develop.

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