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Components of the lower food web (mussels, Caridina and Omena) were collected from stations from Winam Gulf, Lake Victoria, Kenya in 2022 and 2023 to analyze for stable isotopes and total mercury (THg). Temporal comparisons were made with data generated for the same species in 1998. Values of δ15N in mussels and Caridina were similar (6.89‰ vs. 6.78 ± 0.13‰), while Omena occupied an elevated trophic position (9.97 ± 0.24‰) with minor shifts in δ15N over time. All species had elevated δ13C values in 2022-2023 versus 1998 supportive of enhanced eutrophication in the Gulf. THg concentrations exhibited modest spatial differences between sites (< 2.6 fold), but not between Caridina and Omena. Larger temporal differences were apparent relative to spatial patterns with THg concentrations decreasing in study species by 2.8 to 4.1-fold between years. An exposure assessment indicated that Omena, commonly found in local markets, can be consumed up to 0.74 kg/month without generating excess THg exposures.

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The Winam Gulf (Kenya) is frequently impaired by cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cHABs) due to inadequate wastewater treatment and excess agricultural nutrient input. While phytoplankton in Lake Victoria have been characterized using morphological criteria, our aim is to identify potential toxin-producing cyanobacteria using molecular approaches. The Gulf was sampled over two successive summer seasons, and 16S and 18S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing was performed. Additionally, key genes involved in production of cyanotoxins were examined by quantitative PCR. Bacterial communities were spatially variable, forming distinct clusters in line with regions of the Gulf. Taxa associated with diazotrophy were dominant near Homa Bay. On the eastern side, samples exhibited elevated cyrA abundances, indicating genetic capability of cylindrospermopsin synthesis. Indeed, near the Nyando River mouth in 2022, cyrA exceeded 10 million copies L-1 where there were more than 6000 Cylindrospermopsis spp. cells mL-1. In contrast, the southwestern region had elevated mcyE gene (microcystin synthesis) detections near Homa Bay where Microcystis and Dolichospermum spp. were observed. These findings show that within a relatively small embayment, composition and toxin synthesis potential of cHABs can vary dramatically. This underscores the need for multifaceted management approaches and frequent cyanotoxin monitoring to reduce human health impacts.

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The Nile perch (Lates niloticus L.) commercial fishery for Lake Victoria in East Africa is an important source of revenue and employment. We focused on shifts in food web structure and total mercury (THg) bioaccumulation and biomagnification in Nile perch, and lower food web items collected from Winam Gulf (Kenya) sampled 24 years apart (1998 and 2022). Stable isotope carbon (δ13C) values were higher in all species from 2022 compared to 1998. Stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) values in baseline organisms were lower in 2022 compared to 1998. In Nile perch, δ15N values were correlated with total length, but the δ15N-length regressions were steeper in 1998 compared to 2022 except for one large (158 cm) Nile perch from 1998 with an uncharacteristically low δ15N value. Total Hg concentrations were lower in lower trophic species from 2022 compared to 1998. However, the THg bioaccumulation rate (as a function of fish length) in Nile perch was greater in 2022 compared to 1998 resulting in 24.2 % to 42.4 % higher wet weight dorsal THg concentrations in 2022 Nile perch for market slot size (50 to 85 cm) fish. The contrasting observations of increased THg bioaccumulation with size in 2022 against decreases in the rate of trophic increase with size and lower THg concentrations of lower food web items imply reduced fish growth and potential bioenergetic stressors on Winam Gulf Nile perch. All samples except 1 large Nile perch (139 cm total length collected in 2022) had THg concentrations below the European Union trade limit (500 ng/g wet weight). However, for more vulnerable individuals (women, children and frequent fish eaters), we recommend a decrease in maximum monthly meal consumption for 55-75 cm Nile perch from 16 meals per month calculated for 1998 to a limit of 8 meals per month calculated for 2022.

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Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970-2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade-1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m-3 decade-1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade-1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from - 0.68 °C decade-1 to + 0.65 °C decade-1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

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Available guidance to mitigate health risks from exposure to freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) is largely derived from temperate ecosystems. Yet in tropical ecosystems, HABs can occur year-round, and resource-dependent populations face multiple routes of exposure to toxic components. Along Winam Gulf, Lake Victoria, Kenya, fisher communities rely on lake water contaminated with microcystins (MCs) from HABs. In these peri-urban communities near Kisumu, we tested hypotheses that MCs exceed exposure guidelines across seasons, and persistent HABs present a chronic risk to fisher communities through ingestion with minimal water treatment and frequent, direct contact. We tested source waters at eleven communities across dry and rainy seasons from September 2015 through May 2016. We measured MCs, other metabolites, physicochemical parameters, chlorophyll a, phytoplankton abundance and diversity, and fecal indicators. We then selected four communities for interviews about water sources, usage, and treatment. Greater than 30% of source water samples exceeded WHO drinking water guidelines for MCs (1µg/L), and over 60% of source water samples exceeded USEPA guidelines for children and immunocompromised individuals. 50% of households reported sole use of raw lake water for drinking and household use, with alternate sources including rain and boreholes. Household chlorination was the most widespread treatment utilized. At this tropical, eutrophic lake, HABs pose a year-round health risk for fisher communities in resource -limited settings. Community-based solutions and site-specific guidance for Kisumu Bay and similarly impacted regions is needed to address a chronic health exposure likely to increase in severity and duration with global climate change.

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The human health risks posed by exposure to cyanobacterial toxins such as microcystin (MC) through water and fish consumption remain poorly described. During the last two decades, coastal regions of Lake Victoria such as Nyanza Gulf (Kisumu Bay) have shown severe signs of eutrophication with blooms formed by Microcystis producing MC. In this study, the spatial variability in MC concentration in Kisumu Bay was investigated which was mostly caused by Microcystis buoyancy and wind drifting. Small fish (<6 cm) mainly composed of Rastrineobola argentea were examined for MC content by means of biological methods such as ELISA and protein phosphatase inhibition assay (PPIA) and partly by chemical-analytical methods such as LC-MS/MS. Overall, the MC content in small fish was related to the MC content observed in the seston. When comparing the MC content in the seston in relation to dry weight with the MC content in small fish the latter was found three orders of magnitude decreased. On average, the ELISA-determined MC contents exceeded the PPIA-determined MC contents by a factor of 8.2 ± 0.5 (SE) while the MC contents as determined by LC-MS/MS were close to the detection limit. Using PPIA, the MC content varied from 25⁻109 (mean 62 ± 7) ng/g fish dry weight in Kisumu Bay vs. 14 ± 0.8 ng MC/g in the more open water of L. Victoria at Rusinga channel. Drying the fish under the sun showed little effect on MC content, although increased humidity might indirectly favor photocatalyzed MC degradation.

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Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected.

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Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

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This study was carried out in order to investigate the spatial variation of algal toxin (microcystin) concentrations along the shoreline of Lake Victoria. A total of 16 nearshore stations differing in connectivity to the main lake basin were categorized as either closed bays (ratio of bay area to bay opening < 1) or open bays (ratio ≥ 1) and sampled during November and December 2009. Water samples were analyzed for total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a, phytoplankton community composition and concentrations of microcystin (MC). Open and closed bays were significantly different for phytoplankton abundance and composition: Average phytoplankton biovolume was higher for closed bays (45 mm3 L-1 ± 11 SE) than open bays (5 ± 2 mm3 L-1). Cyanobacterial biovolume (mainly Microcystis spp., Anabaena spp. and Planktolyngbya spp.) also was significantly higher in closed bays (82 ± 9% of total biovolume) than in open bays (44 ± 5%). In contrast, diatom biovolume was lower in closed bays (7 ± 1%) than in open bays (36 ± 6%). MCs were found only among sites from closed bays and concentrations ranged from 0.4 to 13 µg L-1 MC-LR equiv. and coincided with high abundance of Microcystis spp. It is concluded that the level of water exchange from individual bays to the main basin is an important factor influencing eutrophication and microcystin production in nearshore habitats of Lake Victoria.