RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There are many models to predict survival in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). The most commonly used are the modified Maddrey's index, the Glasgow scale and the Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate three prognostic scales ability to predict early mortality (first 30 days) in patients with AH. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the database of hospitalized patients with AH during a 3-years period. Seventy one patients were included. We calculated the modified Maddrey's index, the Glasgow scale and the MELD scores. We evaluated if the scales predicted early (30-day) mortality. For each scale we determined sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative values (PPV and NPV) and likelihood value of each scale. RESULTS: For modified Maddrey's index, the values obtained were sensitivity 98.8%, specificity 11.7%, PPV 61.6%, NPV 87.5% and likelihood ratio 1.12. For Glasgow scale corresponding values were sensitivity 98.8%, specificity 61.7%, PPV 78.7%, NPV 97.4% and likelihood ratio 2.64. For the MELD scale sensitivity 98.8%, specificity 0.1%, PPV 59%, NPV 50% and likelihood ratio 1. CONCLUSIONS: The three scales were very sensitive. Glasgow's scale was the most specific and, maybe, the most exact test.