RESUMEN
The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.
Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Bosques , Árboles/crecimiento & desarrollo , Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ecosistema , Ericaceae/crecimiento & desarrolloRESUMEN
Ethnobotanical studies revealed the experience and knowledge of people who learned the therapeutic virtues of plants through trials and errors and transferred their knowledge to the next generations. This study determined the ethnobotanical use of Juniperus drupacea (Andiz) in the Antalya province and the current and future potential distribution areas of J. drupacea in Türkiye during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and based on the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model. The very suitable areas encompassed 22379.7 km2. However, when the SSP2-4.5 scenario was considered, the areas most suitable for J. drupacea comprised 6215.892 km2 for 2041-2060 and 378.318 km2 for 2081-2100. Based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area most suitable for J. drupacea was 979.082 km2 for 2041-2060. However, no suitable areas were identified with the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2081-2100. Considering the models for the future estimated distribution areas of J. drupacea, serious contractions endangering the species are predicted in its distribution areas. Therefore, scientific research should focus on identifying J. drupacea populations and genotypes that demonstrate resilience to future drought conditions resulting from climate change. This endeavor is crucial as it holds significant ecological and economic values.
RESUMEN
Today, climate change affects all living things on earth. It also leads to serious losses in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human welfare. In this context, Laurus nobilis L. is a very important species for Turkey, and the Mediterranean countries. This research aimed to simulate the current distribution of the suitable habitat for L. nobilis in Turkey and to predict its possible range shifts in future climate scenarios. To predict the geographical distribution of L. nobilis, the study used the maximum-entropy algorithm-based MaxEnt 3.4.1 with seven bioclimatic variables created using the Community Climate System Model 4.0 (CCSM4) and the prediction models RCP4.5-8.5 for the years 2050-2070. The results indicated that the most important bioclimatic variables that shape the distribution of L. nobilis are BIO11-mean temperature of coldest quarter, and BIO7-annual temperature range. Two climate change scenarios predicted that the geographical distribution of L. nobilis would increase slightly and then decrease in the future. However, the spatial change analysis showed that the general geographical distribution area of L. nobilis did not change significantly, but the "moderate," "high," and "very high" suitable habitats changed towards "low" suitable habitats. These changes were particularly effective in Turkey's Mediterranean region, which shows that climate change is instrumental in determining the future of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Therefore, suitability mapping and change analysis of potential future bioclimatic habitats can help in planning for land use, conservation, and ecological restoration of L. nobilis.