RESUMEN
Anticipating the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing climate change is essential to propose effective management and conservation measures. The Western Mediterranean Basin constitutes one of the hotspots of biodiversity where the effects of climate change are expected to be more dramatic. Plant species with ecological relevance constitute ideal models to evaluate and predict the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Here we investigate these impacts through the spatio-temporal comparison of genetic diversity/structure (AFLPs), potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change, and ecological space in two Western Mediterranean sister species of genus Carex. Both species are ecologically key in their riparian habitats, but display contrasting distribution patterns, with one widespread in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa (C. reuteriana), while the other (C. panormitana) is a restricted, probably endangered, Central Mediterranean endemic. At present, we found a strong genetic structure driven by geography in both species, and lower values of genetic diversity and a narrower ecological space in C. panormitana than in C. reuteriana, while the allelic rarity was higher in the former than in C. reuteriana subspecies. Future projections predict an overall dramatic reduction of suitable areas for both species under all climate change scenarios, which could be almost total for C. panormitana. In addition, gene diversity was inferred to decrease in all taxa, with genetic structure reinforcing in C. reuteriana by the loss of admixture among populations. Our findings stress the need for a reassessment of C. panormitana conservation status under IUCN Red List criteria and the implementation of conservation measures.
Asunto(s)
Carex (Planta) , Cyperaceae , Ecosistema , Cambio Climático , Carex (Planta)/genética , Variación Genética/genéticaRESUMEN
PREMISE: Most of the Paleotropical flora widely distributed in the Western Palearctic became extinct during the Mio-Pliocene as a result of global geoclimatic changes. A few elements from this Cenozoic flora are believed to remain as relicts in Macaronesia, forming part of the laurel forests. Although the origins of the present species assembly are known to be heterogeneous, it is unclear whether some species should be considered climatic relicts with conserved niches. An ideal group for studying such relict characteristics is a Miocene lineage of Carex sect. Rhynchocystis (Cyperaceae), which comprises four species distributed in mainland Palearctic and Macaronesia. METHODS: We reconstructed the current and past environmental spaces for extant mainland and Macaronesian species, as well as for Pliocene fossils. We also studied the bioclimatic niche evolution. Species distribution modeling and ensemble small modeling were performed to assess the potential distribution over time. RESULTS: Climatic niche analyses and distribution modeling revealed that the ecological requirements of Macaronesian species did not overlap with those of either mainland species or with the Pliocene fossils. Conversely, the niches of mainland species displayed significant similarity and equivalence. CONCLUSIONS: Macaronesian species are not climatic relicts from the Paleotropical flora, but instead seem to have changed the ecological niche of their ancestors. By contrast, despite their ancient divergence (Late Miocene), mainland C. pendula and C. agastachys show conserved niches, with competitive exclusion likely shaping their mostly allopatric ranges.