RESUMEN
The VOLCORE (Volcanic Core Records) database is a collection of 34,696 visible tephra (volcanic ash and lithological or grain size variations) occurrences reported in the initial reports volumes of all of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP; 1966-1983), the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP; 1983-2003), the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP; 2003-2013) and the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP; 2013-present) up to and including IODP Expedition 381. The combined international ocean drilling programmes (OD) have locations with global coverage. Cored tephra layers and tephra-bearing sediments span timescales from recent to ~150 million years in age. This database is a collection of information about reported visible tephra layers entirely or predominantly composed of volcanic ash. Data include the depth below sea floor, tephra thickness, location, and any reported comments. An approximate age was estimated for most (29,493) of the tephra layers using published age-depth models. The database can be used as a starting point for studies of tephrochronology, volcanology, geochemistry, studies of sediment transport and palaeoclimatology.
RESUMEN
Mathematical models of natural processes can be used as inversion tools to predict unobserved properties from measured quantities. Uncertainty in observations and model formulation impact on the efficacy of inverse modelling. We present a general methodology, history matching, that can be used to investigate the effect of observational and model uncertainty on inverse modelling studies. We demonstrate history matching on an integral model of volcanic plumes that is used to estimate source conditions from observations of the rise height of plumes during the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, in 2010 and Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 2011. Sources of uncertainty are identified and quantified, and propagated through the integral plume model. A preliminary sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the uncertain model parameters that strongly influence model predictions. Model predictions are assessed against observations through an implausibility measure that rules out model inputs that are considered implausible given the quantified uncertainty. We demonstrate that the source mass flux at the volcano can be estimated from plume height observations, but the magmatic temperature, exit velocity and exsolved gas mass fraction cannot be accurately determined. Uncertainty in plume height observations and entrainment coefficients results in a large range of plausible values of the source mass flux. Our analysis shows that better constraints on entrainment coefficients for volcanic plumes and more precise observations of plume height are required to obtain tightly constrained estimates of the source mass flux.