RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to cause very high morbidity and mortality throughout Latin American countries. However, few population-based seroprevalence surveys have been conducted to quantify attack rates and characterize drivers of transmission. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in ten cities in Colombia between September and December 2020. The study involved multi-stage cluster sampling at each city. Participants provided a serum sample and answered a demographic and risk factor questionnaire. Prior infection by SARS-CoV-2 was ascertained using the "SARS-CoV-2 Total (COV2T) Advia Centaur - Siemens" chemiluminescence assay. FINDINGS: A total of 17863 participants from 7320 households participated in the study. Seroprevalence varied substantially between cities, ranging from 26% (95%CI 23-29 %) in Medellín to 68% (95%CI 62-74 %) in Guapi. There were no differences in seroprevalence by sex, but seropositivity was higher in certain ethnic groups. There was substantial heterogeneity in seroprevalence within cities, driven to a large extent by a strong association between socioeconomic stratum and seropositivity. INTERPRETATION: Colombia has been one of the Latin American countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study documented very high attack rates in several Colombian cities by the end of 2020 and identified key drivers of heterogeneities including ethnicity and socioeconomic stratum. Few studies of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 have been conducted in Latin America, and therefore this study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the pandemic in the region. FUNDING: The study was sponsored by, Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología e Innovación -CT361/2020, Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social, Fundación Universitaria del Norte, Imperial College of London, Universidad Nacional de Colombia (Sede Medellín), Universidad de Córdoba, California University, Unidad Nacional de Gestión del Riesgo, Centro de Atención y Diagnóstico de Enfermedades Infecciosas -CDI-, Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas -CIDEIM-, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística - DANE, Fondo Nacional de Turismo -FONTUR-, Secretarías de Salud Departamentales, Distritales y Municipales and Instituto Nacional de Salud.
RESUMEN
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Colombia/epidemiología , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Conjuntos de Datos como Asunto , Predicción/métodos , Humanos , Modelos Estadísticos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
Population based serological surveys are the gold-standard to quantify dengue (DENV) transmission. The purpose of this study was to estimate the age-specific seroprevalence and the force of infection of DENV in an endemic area of Colombia. Between July and October 2014, we conducted a household based cross-sectional survey among 1.037 individuals aged 2 to 40 years living in 40 randomly selected locations in urban Piedecuesta, Santander, Colombia. In addition, we also enrolled 246 indviduals living in rural "veredas". Participants were asked to answer a questionnaire that included demographic, socioeconomic and environmental questions and to provide a 5 ml blood sample. Sera were tested using the IgG indirect ELISA (Panbio) kit to determine past DENV infection. The overall DENV seroprevalence was 70% (95% CI = 67%-71%), but was significantly higher in urban (81%, 95% CI = 78%-83%) as compared to rural (21%, 95% CI = 17%-27%) locations. Age was a major predictor of seropositivity, consistent with endemic circulation of the virus. Using catalytic models we estimated that on average, 12% (95%CI = 11%-13%) of susceptible individuals living in the city are infected by DENV each year. Beyond age, the only predictor of seropositivity in urban locations was prior history of dengue diagnosed by a physician (aPR 1.15, 95% CI = 0.98-1.35). Among participants living in rural settings, those that reported traveling outside of their vereda were more likely to be seropositive (aPR 3.60, 95%CI = 1.54-8.42) as well as those who were born outside of Santander department (aPR = 2.77, 95%CI = 1.20-6.37). These results are consistent with long term endemic circulation of DENV in Piedecuesta, with large heterogeneities between urban and rural areas located just a few kilometers apart. Design of DENV control interventions, including vaccination, will need to consider this fine scale spatial heterogeneity.
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Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Niño , Preescolar , Colombia/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Dengue/inmunología , Virus del Dengue/aislamiento & purificación , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G/inmunología , Masculino , Población Rural , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Viaje , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
In 2015 and 2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through dengue virus (DENV) endemic areas of Latin America. These viruses are of the same family, share a vector and may interact competitively or synergistically through human immune responses. We examine dengue incidence from Brazil and Colombia before, during, and after the Zika epidemic. We find evidence that dengue incidence was atypically low in 2017 in both countries. We investigate whether subnational Zika incidence is associated with changes in dengue incidence and find mixed results. Using simulations with multiple assumptions of interactions between DENV and ZIKV, we find cross-protection suppresses incidence of dengue following Zika outbreaks and low periods of dengue incidence are followed by resurgence. Our simulations suggest correlations in DENV and ZIKV reproduction numbers could complicate associations between ZIKV incidence and post-ZIKV DENV incidence and that periods of low dengue incidence are followed by large increases in dengue incidence.
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Dengue/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Enfermedades Endémicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Brasil/epidemiología , Colombia/epidemiología , Reacciones Cruzadas/inmunología , Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/virología , Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Virus del Dengue/patogenicidad , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos de Interacción Espacial , Análisis de Regresión , Virus Zika/inmunología , Virus Zika/patogenicidad , Infección por el Virus Zika/inmunología , Infección por el Virus Zika/virologíaRESUMEN
Time series data provide a crucial window into infectious disease dynamics, yet their utility is often limited by the spatially aggregated form in which they are presented. When working with time series data, violating the implicit assumption of homogeneous dynamics below the scale of spatial aggregation could bias inferences about underlying processes. We tested this assumption in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia, where time series of weekly case reports were available at national, departmental, and municipal scales. First, we performed a descriptive analysis, which showed that the timing of departmental-level epidemic peaks varied by three months and that departmental-level estimates of the time-varying reproduction number, R(t), showed patterns that were distinct from a national-level estimate. Second, we applied a classification algorithm to six features of proportional cumulative incidence curves, which showed that variability in epidemic duration, the length of the epidemic tail, and consistency with a cumulative normal density curve made the greatest contributions to distinguishing groups. Third, we applied this classification algorithm to data simulated with a stochastic transmission model, which showed that group assignments were consistent with simulated differences in the basic reproduction number, R0. This result, along with associations between spatial drivers of transmission and group assignments based on observed data, suggests that the classification algorithm is capable of detecting differences in temporal patterns that are associated with differences in underlying drivers of incidence patterns. Overall, this diversity of temporal patterns at local scales underscores the value of spatially disaggregated time series data.
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Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/transmisión , Virus Zika , Número Básico de Reproducción , Colombia/epidemiología , Epidemias , Humanos , Incidencia , Agrupamiento Espacio-Temporal , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
One of the challenges faced by global disease surveillance efforts is the lack of comparability across systems. Reporting commonly focuses on overall incidence, despite differences in surveillance quality between and within countries. For most immunizing infections, the age distribution of incident cases provides a more robust picture of trends in transmission. We present a framework to estimate transmission intensity for dengue virus from age-specific incidence data, and apply it to 359 administrative units in Thailand, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico. Our estimates correlate well with those derived from seroprevalence data (the gold standard), capture the expected spatial heterogeneity in risk, and correlate with known environmental drivers of transmission. We show how this approach could be used to guide the implementation of control strategies such as vaccination. Since age-specific counts are routinely collected by masany surveillance systems, they represent a unique opportunity to further our understanding of disease burden and risk for many diseases.
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Dengue/epidemiología , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Distribución por Edad , Brasil/epidemiología , Colombia/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Humanos , Incidencia , México/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Tailandia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The clinical outcomes associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas have been well documented, but other aspects of the pandemic, such as attack rates and risk factors, are poorly understood. We prospectively followed a cohort of 1453 urban residents in Salvador, Brazil, and, using an assay that measured immunoglobulin G3 (IgG3) responses against ZIKV NS1 antigen, we estimated that 73% of individuals were infected during the 2015 outbreak. Attack rates were spatially heterogeneous, varying by a factor of 3 within a community spanning 0.17 square kilometers. Preexisting high antibody titers to dengue virus were associated with reduced risk of ZIKV infection and symptoms. The landscape of ZIKV immunity that now exists may affect the risk for future transmission.
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Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Reacciones Cruzadas , Dengue/inmunología , Proteínas no Estructurales Virales/inmunología , Infección por el Virus Zika/inmunología , Adolescente , Adulto , Número Básico de Reproducción , Brasil , Niño , Brotes de Enfermedades , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Población Urbana , Adulto Joven , Virus ZikaRESUMEN
Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent human vector-borne viral disease. The force of infection (FoI), the rate at which susceptible individuals are infected in a population, is an important metric for infectious disease modeling. Understanding how and why the FoI of DENV changes over time is critical for developing immunization and vector control policies. We used age-stratified seroprevalence data from 12 years of the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to estimate the annual FoI of DENV from 1994 to 2015. Seroprevalence data revealed a change in the rate at which children acquire DENV-specific immunity: in 2004, 50% of children age >4 years were seropositive, but by 2015, 50% seropositivity was reached only by age 11 years. We estimated a spike in the FoI in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 and a gradual decline thereafter, and children age <4 years experienced a lower FoI. Two hypotheses to explain the change in the FoI were tested: (i) a transition from introduction of specific DENV serotypes to their endemic transmission and (ii) a population demographic transition due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. We used mathematical models to simulate these hypotheses. We show that the initial high FoI can be explained by the introduction of DENV-3 in 1994-1998, and that the overall gradual decline in the FoI can be attributed to demographic shifts. Changes in immunity and demographics strongly impacted DENV transmission in Nicaragua. Population-level measures of transmission intensity are dynamic and thus challenging to use to guide vaccine implementation locally and globally.
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Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Virus del Dengue/aislamiento & purificación , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Dengue/virología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Nicaragua/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
Despite a long history of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in the Americas, the impact of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic of 2015-2016 was unexpected. The need for scientifically informed decision-making is driving research to understand the emergence and spread of ZIKV. To support that research, we assembled a data set of key covariates for modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics in Colombia, where ZIKV transmission was widespread and the government made incidence data publically available. On a weekly basis between January 1, 2014 and October 1, 2016 at three administrative levels, we collated spatiotemporal Zika incidence data, nine environmental variables, and demographic data into a single downloadable database. These new datasets and those we identified, processed, and assembled at comparable spatial and temporal resolutions will save future researchers considerable time and effort in performing these data processing steps, enabling them to focus instead on extracting epidemiological insights from this important data set. Similar approaches could prove useful for filling data gaps to enable epidemiological analyses of future disease emergence events.
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Epidemias , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Virus Zika , Colombia/epidemiología , HumanosRESUMEN
First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little-known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a considerable increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history, and public health effects of ZIKV infection, the empirical basis for this knowledge, and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled.
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Microcefalia/virología , Infección por el Virus Zika/prevención & control , Infección por el Virus Zika/transmisión , Virus Zika , Animales , Investigación Biomédica/tendencias , Brasil , Culex/virología , Diseño de Fármacos , Femenino , Salud Global , Humanos , Incidencia , Filogenia , Embarazo , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/virología , Salud Pública , Virus Zika/clasificación , Virus Zika/patogenicidad , Virus Zika/fisiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/complicacionesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Children have a lower response rate to antimonial drugs and higher elimination rate of antimony (Sb) than adults. Oral miltefosine has not been evaluated for pediatric cutaneous leishmaniasis. METHODS: A randomized, noninferiority clinical trial with masked evaluation was conducted at 3 locations in Colombia where Leishmania panamensis and Leishmania guyanensis predominated. One hundred sixteen children aged 2-12 years with parasitologically confirmed cutaneous leishmaniasis were randomized to directly observed treatment with meglumine antimoniate (20 mg Sb/kg/d for 20 days; intramuscular) (n = 58) or miltefosine (1.8-2.5 mg/kg/d for 28 days; by mouth) (n = 58). Primary outcome was treatment failure at or before week 26 after initiation of treatment. Miltefosine was noninferior if the proportion of treatment failures was ≤15% higher than achieved with meglumine antimoniate (1-sided test, α = .05). RESULTS: Ninety-five percent of children (111/116) completed follow-up evaluation. By intention-to-treat analysis, failure rate was 17.2% (98% confidence interval [CI], 5.7%-28.7%) for miltefosine and 31% (98% CI, 16.9%-45.2%) for meglumine antimoniate. The difference between treatment groups was 13.8%, (98% CI, -4.5% to 32%) (P = .04). Adverse events were mild for both treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Miltefosine is noninferior to meglumine antimoniate for treatment of pediatric cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania (Viannia) species. Advantages of oral administration and low toxicity favor use of miltefosine in children. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00487253.
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Antiprotozoarios/administración & dosificación , Leishmania/aislamiento & purificación , Leishmaniasis Cutánea/tratamiento farmacológico , Meglumina/administración & dosificación , Compuestos Organometálicos/administración & dosificación , Fosforilcolina/análogos & derivados , Administración Oral , Antiprotozoarios/efectos adversos , Niño , Preescolar , Colombia , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Meglumina/efectos adversos , Antimoniato de Meglumina , Compuestos Organometálicos/efectos adversos , Fosforilcolina/administración & dosificación , Fosforilcolina/efectos adversos , Insuficiencia del TratamientoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: dengue virus (DENV) was reintroduced into Brazil in 1986 and by 1995 it had spread throughout the country. In 2007 the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases more than doubled and a shift in the age distribution was reported. While previously the majority of DHF cases occurred among adults, in 2007 53% of cases occurred in children under 15 years old. The reasons for this shift have not been determined. METHODS AND FINDINGS: age stratified cross-sectional seroepidemiologic survey conducted in Recife, Brazil in 2006. Serostatus was determined by ELISA based detection of Dengue IgG. We estimated time-constant and time-varying forces of infection of DENV between 1986 and 2006. We used discrete-time simulation to estimate the accumulation of monotypic and multitypic immunity over time in a population previously completely susceptible to DENV. We projected the age distribution of population immunity to dengue assuming similar hazards of infection in future years. The overall prevalence of DENV IgG was 0.80 (nâ= 1427). The time-constant force of infection for the period was estimated to be 0.052 (95% CI 0.041, 0.063), corresponding to 5.2% of susceptible individuals becoming infected each year by each serotype. Simulations show that as time since re-emergence of dengue goes by, multitypic immunity accumulates in adults while an increasing proportion of susceptible individuals and those with monotypic immunity are among young age groups. The median age of those monotypically immune can be expected to shift from 24 years, 10 years after introduction, to 13 years, 50 years after introduction. Of those monotypically immune, the proportion under 15 years old shifts from 27% to 58%. These results are consistent with the dengue notification records from the same region since 1995. INTERPRETATION: assuming that persons who have been monotypically exposed are at highest risk for severe dengue, the shift towards younger patient ages observed in Brazil can be partially explained by the accumulation of multitypic immunity against DENV-1, 2, and 3 in older age groups, 22 years after the re-introduction of these viruses. Serotype specific seroepidemiologic studies are necessary to accurately estimate the serotype specific forces of infection.
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Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/epidemiología , Enfermedades Endémicas , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Brasil/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/inmunología , Dengue/inmunología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has been characterized as a zoonotic disease. However, peridomestic and domestic transmission have been recorded in at least nine countries in Central and South America. The present study was undertaken to identify the etiologic agent of a peridomestic epidemic of ACL in the Department of Tolima, Colombia. Leishmania isolates were obtained during the diagnosis of 56 patients with ACL who consulted the local leishmaniasis control program in three municipalities in Tolima. Species were identified using monoclonal antibodies and isoenzyme electrophoresis. A total of 53 (94.6%) of 56 isolates were identified as Leishmania (Viannia) guyanensis. Three isolates (5.4%) were identified as L. (V.) panamensis. Leishmania (V.) guyanensis is the probable etiologic agent of the largest epidemic of cutaneous leishmaniasis recorded in Colombia. This species has not previously been reported outside the Amazon and southeastern regions of Colombia, and has not been described in the peridomestic setting or linked with an epidemic.