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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Current routine immunizations for children aged ≤10 years in the United States in 2019 cover 14 vaccine-preventable diseases. We characterize the public-health impact of vaccination by providing updated estimates of disease incidence with and without universally recommended pediatric vaccines. METHODS: Prevaccine disease incidence was obtained from published data or calculated using annual case estimates from the prevaccine period and United States population estimates during the same period. Vaccine-era incidence was calculated as the average incidence over the most recent 5 years of available surveillance data or obtained from published estimates (if surveillance data were not available). We adjusted for underreporting and calculated the percent reduction in overall and age-specific incidence for each disease. We multiplied prevaccine and vaccine-era incidence rates by 2019 United States population estimates to calculate annual number of cases averted by vaccination. RESULTS: Routine immunization reduced the incidence of all targeted diseases, leading to reductions in incidence ranging from 17% (influenza) to 100% (diphtheria, Haemophilus influenzae type b, measles, mumps, polio, and rubella). For the 2019 United States population of 328 million people, these reductions equate to >24 million cases of vaccine-preventable disease averted. Vaccine-era disease incidence estimates remained highest for influenza (13 412 per 100 000) and Streptococcus pneumoniae-related acute otitis media (2756 per 100 000). CONCLUSIONS: Routine childhood immunization in the United States continues to yield considerable sustained reductions in incidence across all targeted diseases. Efforts to maintain and improve vaccination coverage are necessary to continue experiencing low incidence levels of vaccine-preventable diseases.
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Gripe Humana , Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación , Vacunas , Niño , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Esquemas de Inmunización , Lactante , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Vacunación , Cobertura de Vacunación , Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación/epidemiología , Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación/prevención & controlRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the economic impact of routine childhood immunization in the United States, reflecting updated vaccine recommendations and recent data on epidemiology and coverage rates. METHODS: An economic model followed the 2017 US birth cohort from birth through death; impact was modeled via a decision tree for each of the vaccines recommended for children by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices as of 2017 (with annual influenza vaccine considered in scenario analysis). Using information on historic prevaccine and vaccine-era incidence and disease costs, we calculated disease cases, deaths, disease-related healthcare costs, and productivity losses without and with vaccination, as well as vaccination program costs. We estimated cases and deaths averted because of vaccination, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years gained because of vaccination, incremental costs (2019 US dollars), and the overall benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of routine childhood immunization from the societal and healthcare payer perspectives. RESULTS: Over the cohort's lifetime, routine childhood immunization prevented over 17 million cases of disease and 31 000 deaths; 853 000 life years and 892 000 quality-adjusted life-years were gained. Estimated vaccination costs ($8.5 billion) were fully offset by the $63.6 billion disease-related averted costs. Routine childhood immunization was associated with $55.1 billion (BCR of 7.5) and $13.7 billion (BCR of 2.8) in averted costs from a societal and healthcare payer perspective, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to preventing unnecessary morbidity and mortality, routine childhood immunization is cost-saving. Continued maintenance of high vaccination coverage is necessary to ensure sustained clinical and economic benefits of the vaccination program.
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Cohorte de Nacimiento , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Niño , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Vacunas contra la Influenza/uso terapéutico , Estados Unidos , VacunaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is an important risk factor for a subset of head and neck cancers (HNCs). However, estimates of the HPV-attributable fraction of oropharyngeal cancers vary greatly, and the proportion is increasing. Growing evidence indicates smaller proportions of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers are also HPV-attributable, but this requires further investigation. The primary objective of the BROADEN study is to estimate the fraction of HNCs attributable to HPV in selected European and Asian countries by anatomic site. Secondary objectives are to determine HPV genotypes involved and to describe primary tumor and patient characteristics by HPV status. METHODS: BROADEN is a non-interventional, cross-sectional study of patients with HNC in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Portugal, and Spain. The HPV-attributable HNC fraction will be determined within pre-defined time-periods (2008-2009, 2013-2014 [China only], 2018-2019). Approximately 9000 patients from an estimated 90 hospitals with reference HNC diagnostic units and local reference pathology laboratories will participate. Sample size estimates were generated by grouped anatomic site (oropharynx, oral cavity, nasopharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx) and country. HPV testing (HPV-DNA and p16 immunohistochemistry [IHC]) will be performed at a central laboratory on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples. All HPV-DNA-positive samples and HPV-DNA-negative/p16 IHC-positive samples, plus 10% of remaining HPV DNA-negative (control) samples will be tested for HPV mRNA. DISCUSSION: BROADEN is a large global epidemiologic study to estimate current and recent past HPV burden in oropharyngeal and non-oropharyngeal HNCs. BROADEN is expected to provide robust estimates of HPV attributability by anatomic site in participating countries.
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Neoplasias de Cabeza y Cuello , Infecciones por Papillomavirus , Estudios Transversales , ADN Viral/genética , Neoplasias de Cabeza y Cuello/epidemiología , Humanos , Papillomaviridae/genética , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/complicaciones , Infecciones por Papillomavirus/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The US Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended shared clinical decision-making for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of individuals aged 27 to 45 years (mid-adults) in June 2019. Determining the median age at causal HPV infection and CIN2+ diagnosis based on the natural history of HPV disease can help elucidate the incidence of HPV infections and the potential benefits of vaccination in mid-adults. METHODS: Real-world data on CIN2+ diagnosis from the prevaccine era were sourced from a statewide surveillance registry in Connecticut. Age distribution of CIN2+ diagnosis in 2008 and 2009 was estimated. A discrete event simulation model was developed to predict the age distribution of causal HPV infection. The optimal age distribution of causal HPV infection provided the best goodness-of-fit statistic to compare the predicted vs real-world age distribution of CIN2+ diagnosis. RESULTS: The median age at CIN2+ diagnosis from 2008 through 2009 in Connecticut was 28 years. The predicted median age at causal HPV infection was estimated to be 23.9 years. There was a difference of 5.2 years in the median age at acquisition of causal HPV infection and the median age at CIN2+ diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world data on CIN2+ diagnosis and model-based analysis indicate a substantial burden of infection and disease among women aged 27 years or older, which supports the ACIP recommendation to vaccinate some mid-adults. When natural history is known, this novel approach can also help determine the timing of causal infections for other commonly asymptomatic infectious diseases.
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COVID-19 , Médicos , Conducta Cooperativa , Humanos , Relaciones Interprofesionales , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO)-defined radiological pneumonia is a preferred endpoint in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy and effectiveness studies in children. Automating the WHO methodology may support more widespread application of this endpoint. METHODS: We trained a deep learning model to classify pneumonia CXRs in children using the World Health Organization (WHO)'s standardized methodology. The model was pretrained on CheXpert, a dataset containing 224,316 adult CXRs, and fine-tuned on PERCH, a pediatric dataset containing 4,172 CXRs. The model was then tested on two pediatric CXR datasets released by WHO. We also compared the model's performance to that of radiologists and pediatricians. RESULTS: The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for primary endpoint pneumonia (PEP) across 10-fold validation of PERCH images was 0.928; average AUC after testing on WHO images was 0.977. The model's classification performance was better on test images with high inter-observer agreement; however, the model still outperformed human assessments in AUC and precision-recall spaces on low agreement images. CONCLUSION: A deep learning model can classify pneumonia CXR images in children at a performance comparable to human readers. Our method lays a strong foundation for the potential inclusion of computer-aided readings of pediatric CXRs in vaccine trials and epidemiology studies.
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Aprendizaje Profundo , Interpretación de Imagen Asistida por Computador/métodos , Radiografía Torácica/clasificación , Conjuntos de Datos como Asunto , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Modelos Estadísticos , Variaciones Dependientes del Observador , Neumonía/clasificación , Neumonía/diagnóstico por imagen , Curva ROC , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders have caused an unprecedented decrease in the administration of routinely recommended vaccines. However, the impact of this decrease on overall vaccination coverage in a specific birth cohort is not known. METHODS: We projected measles vaccination coverage for the cohort of children becoming one year old in 2020 in the United States, for different durations of stay-at-home orders, along with varying catch-up vaccination efforts. RESULTS: A 15% sustained catch-up rate outside stay-at-home orders (compared to what would be expected via natality information) may be necessary to achieve projected vaccination coverage similar to previous years. Permanent decreases in vaccine administration could lead to projected vaccination coverage levels below 80%. CONCLUSION: Modeling measles vaccination coverage under a range of scenarios provides useful information about the potential magnitude and impact of under-immunization. Sustained catch-up efforts are needed to assure that measles vaccination coverage remains high.
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COVID-19 , Vacuna Antisarampión/administración & dosificación , Pandemias , Cobertura de Vacunación , Niño , Preescolar , Humanos , Lactante , Sarampión/prevención & control , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Varicella is a highly contagious childhood disease. Generally benign, serious complications necessitating antibiotic use may occur. The objective of this study was to characterize the rate, appropriateness and patterns of real-world antibiotic prescribing for management of varicella-associated complications, prior to universal varicella vaccination (UVV) implementation. METHODS: Pooled, post-hoc analysis of 5 international, multicenter, retrospective chart reviews studies (Argentina, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland). Inpatient and outpatient primary pediatric (1-14 years) varicella cases, diagnosed between 2009 and 2016, were eligible. Outcomes, assessed descriptively, included varicella-associated complications and antibiotic use. Three antibiotic prescribing scenarios were defined based on complication profile in chart: evidence of microbiologically confirmed bacterial infection (Scenario A); insufficient evidence confirming microbiological confirmation (Scenario B); no evidence of microbiological confirmation (Scenario C). Stratification was performed by patient status (inpatient vs. outpatient) and country. RESULTS: Four hundred one outpatients and 386 inpatients were included. Mean (SD) outpatient age was 3.6 (2.8) years; inpatient age was 3.1 (2.8) years. Male gender was predominant. Overall, 12.2% outpatients reported ≥1 infectious complication, 3.7% ≥1 bacterial infection, and 0.5% ≥1 microbiologically confirmed infection; inpatient complication rates were 78.8, 33.2 and 16.6%, respectively. Antibiotics were prescribed to 12.7% of outpatients and 68.9% of inpatients. Among users, ß-lactamases (class), and clindamycin (agent), dominated prescriptions. Scenario A was assigned to 3.9% (outpatients) vs 13.2% (inpatients); Scenario B: 2.0% vs. 6.0%; Scenario C: 94.1% vs. 80.8%. CONCLUSIONS: High rates of infectious complications and antibiotic use are reported, with low rates of microbiological confirmation suggesting possible antibiotic misuse for management of varicella complications.
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Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Varicela/tratamiento farmacológico , Atención a la Salud/normas , Prescripciones de Medicamentos/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Infecciones Bacterianas/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones Bacterianas/microbiología , Varicela/epidemiología , Varicela/virología , Niño , Preescolar , Clindamicina/uso terapéutico , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Hospitalización , Humanos , Lactante , Pacientes Internos , América Latina/epidemiología , Masculino , Pacientes Ambulatorios , Estudios Retrospectivos , beta-Lactamasas/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
Health care is a business. Health care providers must become familiar with terms such as opportunity costs, the potential loss or gain when one choice is made in lieu of another. The purpose of this study was to calculate the opportunity cost of two orthopaedic surgery society board meetings and discuss these in the context of behavioral economics and regret. A literature search was conducted to determine an orthopaedic surgeon's average yearly salary, hours worked per week, and weeks worked per year. The details of two orthopaedic surgery professional society meetings that one senior author (CSR) attended were used to calculate opportunity cost. Although the true benefits are multifactorial and difficult to objectively quantify, awareness of the cost-benefit ratio can help guide time and resource management to maximize the return on investment while minimizing buyer's remorse and perhaps influence the media by which medical meetings are held in the future. (Journal of Surgical Orthopaedic Advances 27(1):10-13, 2018).
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Congresos como Asunto/economía , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Economía del Comportamiento , Ortopedia/economía , Médicos , Emociones , Humanos , Sociedades MédicasRESUMEN
This perspectives report discusses the need to create a surgical and procedural skills competency for orthopedic surgery residency training programs.
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Competencia Clínica , Educación de Postgrado en Medicina/métodos , Internado y Residencia , Ortopedia/educación , Educación Basada en Competencias , Curriculum , Evaluación Educacional , Humanos , Modelos EducacionalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The mechanical role of supplemental fibula fixation in both bone lower leg fractures is not well defined. The benefit of fibula plate fixation in this context is controversial. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the mechanical contributions of the fibula under three conditions (intact, fractured, or plated fibula) following standard tibia locked plating. METHODS: A laboratory fracture model was created with 10 cadaveric legs (5 matched pairs) with no known history of lower extremity trauma or other musculoskeletal conditions. A both bone lower leg fracture was simulated by performing distal osteotomies, 3 to 5 cm above the tibia plafond, leaving a bony defect to simulate an unstable fracture (AOTrauma OTA classification 43-A3). Coronal and sagittal gauge-pins were placed above and below the fracture sites to measure relative displacement across three planes of motion. Axial and torsional loads were applied to the leg under the following conditions: tibia intact and fibula intact (control 1), tibia fracture and fibula intact, tibia fracture and fibula fracture (control 2), and the three conditions of primary interest: tibia plated and fibula intact, tibia plated and fibula fracture (osteotomy), and tibia plated and fibula plated. The load applied for level 1 was 75 N of axial compression and 0.3 Nm of torque, and the load for level 2 was 175 N of axial compression and 1.3 Nm of torque. RESULTS: There were significant differences in motion across the fracture site of the injured leg when the tibia was not plated compared with an intact and plated tibia, p < 0.05. However, when the tibia was plated, there were no significant differences in fracture motion when the fibula was left either intact, osteotomized, or underwent supplemental plate fixation, p > 0.05. This was true regardless of the loads applied. CONCLUSION: The mechanical stability of supplemental fibula fixation in a both bone lower leg fracture model was not significantly improved from standalone distal tibia fixation in this laboratory model. The clinical effects of these findings are yet to be demonstrated.
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Placas Óseas , Peroné/lesiones , Peroné/fisiopatología , Fijación Interna de Fracturas/instrumentación , Fracturas de la Tibia/fisiopatología , Fracturas de la Tibia/cirugía , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Clavos Ortopédicos , Cadáver , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Anatómicos , Selección de Paciente , Fracturas de la Tibia/complicaciones , Soporte de PesoRESUMEN
The issue of appropriate authorship designation continues to be a topic of importance because authorship of scholarly work plays an important role in the academic community. It is a recognition of an individual's scholarly work and a factor in academic promotion. The Orthopaedic Trauma Association (OTA) sponsored a minisymposium in 2014 to encourage discussion of the issues that arise in authorship decisions. A residency program director/department chair, a journal editor, a clinical trials coordinator, and a promotions committee member provided viewpoints. In the pages that follow, vignettes are presented along with discussion points to encourage conversation on this topic. Authorship criteria are clearly defined. Authorship based simply on seniority or contribution of cases to clinical trials is inappropriate. Discussion of authorship criteria prior to the initiation of clinical research investigations is a standard that must be met. The International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) guidelines provide a framework for this discussion and should be reviewed by all authors prior to publication. Modifications to published authorship guidelines may be necessary to address some of the scenarios identified here that are not adequately addressed by the existing guidelines.
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Autoria , Ortopedia , Edición/normas , Políticas Editoriales , Humanos , InvestigadoresRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this case report was to describe the chiropractic management of a patient with neck-tongue syndrome (NTS). CLINICAL FEATURES: A 34-year-old female patient sought treatment at a chiropractic clinic for symptoms involving neck pain associated with left-sided paresthesia of the tongue that had persisted for >2 years. A diagnosis of NTS was made. INTERVENTION AND OUTCOME: The patient was treated with spinal manipulation, myofascial release, and home exercises. After 2 weeks, she was symptom free. At the 2-year follow-up, the patient remained free of symptoms. CONCLUSION: This patient with NTS responded favorably to a course of chiropractic care.
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The study evaluated the incidence of and complications associated with the use of an intramedullary nail vs open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) with a sliding compression hip screw and plate in treating intertrochanteric fractures. The authors hypothesized that the biomechanically stronger and less invasive intramedullary nail would have superior results and fewer complications compared with ORIF. Patients followed for up to 1 year postoperatively were identified from the 5% nationwide sample of Medicare administrative claims data (1998-2007) using the corresponding International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification, codes 820.21 and 820.31. There were 9157 patients treated with intramedullary nails and 27,687 treated with compression screw and plate fixation. Intertrochanteric hip fractures treated with an intramedullary nail during this period increased from 3.3% to 63.1% compared with ORIF. Patients treated with an intramedullary nail had a higher adjusted risk of pulmonary embolism at 90 days (P=.003) and a higher risk of mortality at 1 year (P<.001) compared with those treated with ORIF. Patients who underwent intramedullary nailing during 2006 to 2007 had a lower adjusted risk of conversion to total hip replacement at 1 year (P=.037) compared with those who had ORIF. Over the decade of the study, intramedullary nail usage increased 59.8% compared with ORIF. Increased use of intramedullary nails compared with ORIF has not shown improved outcomes or decreased complications in patients with intertrochanteric hip fractures. The increased use of intramedullary nails for intertrochanteric hip fractures appears to be multifactorial, including the less invasive nature of the surgery and increased experience with the closed surgical technique.
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Clavos Ortopédicos/efectos adversos , Tornillos Óseos/efectos adversos , Fijación Interna de Fracturas/efectos adversos , Fracturas de Cadera/cirugía , Adulto , Anciano , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera/estadística & datos numéricos , Clavos Ortopédicos/estadística & datos numéricos , Placas Óseas/efectos adversos , Femenino , Fijación Interna de Fracturas/instrumentación , Fijación Interna de Fracturas/estadística & datos numéricos , Fracturas de Cadera/epidemiología , Humanos , Masculino , Medicare/estadística & datos numéricos , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/etiología , Embolia Pulmonar/etiología , Factores de Riesgo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
This study examined the axial and torsional stiffness of polyaxial locked plating techniques compared with fixed-angle locked plating techniques in a distal tibia pilon fracture model. The effect of using a polyaxial screw to cross the fracture site was examined to determine its ability to control relative fracture site motion. A laboratory experiment was performed to investigate the biomechanical stiffness of distal tibia fracture models repaired with 3.5-mm anterior polyaxial distal tibial plates and locking screws. Sawbones Fourth Generation Composite Tibia models (Pacific Research Laboratories, Inc, Vashon, Washington) were used to model an Orthopaedic Trauma Association 43-A1.3 distal tibia pilon fracture. The polyaxial plates were inserted with 2 central locking screws at a position perpendicular to the cortical surface of the tibia and tested for load as a function of axial displacement and torque as a function of angular displacement. The 2 screws were withdrawn and inserted at an angle 15° from perpendicular, allowing them to span the fracture and insert into the opposing fracture surface. Each tibia was tested again for axial and torsional stiffness. In medial and posterior loading, no statistically significant difference was found between tibiae plated with the polyaxial plate and the central screws placed in the neutral position compared with the central screws placed at a 15° position. In torsional loading, a statistically significant difference was noted, showing greater stiffness in tibiae plated with the polyaxial plate and the central screws placed at a 15° position compared with tibiae plated with the central screws placed at a 0° (or perpendicular) position. This study showed that variable angle constructs show similar stiffness properties between perpendicular and 15° angle insertions in axial loading. The 15° angle construct shows greater stiffness in torsional loading.
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Placas Óseas , Tornillos Óseos , Fijación Interna de Fracturas/instrumentación , Fracturas de la Tibia/cirugía , Fenómenos Biomecánicos/fisiología , Fijación Interna de Fracturas/métodos , Humanos , Modelos Anatómicos , Diseño de Prótesis , Estrés Fisiológico , Fracturas de la Tibia/fisiopatologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Positive associations between medication adherence and beneficial outcomes primarily come from studying filling/consumption behaviors after therapy initiation. Few studies have focused on what happens before initiation, the point from prescribing to dispensing of an initial prescription. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to provide guidance and encourage high-quality research on the relationship between beneficial outcomes and initial medication adherence (IMA), the rate initially prescribed medication is dispensed. METHODS: Using generic adherence terms, an international research panel identified IMA publications from 1966 to 2014. Their data sources were classified as to whether the primary source reflected the perspective of a prescriber, patient, or pharmacist or a combined perspective. Terminology and methodological differences were documented among core (essential elements of presented and unpresented prescribing events and claimed and unclaimed dispensing events regardless of setting), supplemental (refined for accuracy), and contextual (setting-specific) design parameters. Recommendations were made to encourage and guide future research. RESULTS: The 45 IMA studies identified used multiple terms for IMA and operationalized measurements differently. Primary data sources reflecting a prescriber's and pharmacist's perspective potentially misclassified core parameters more often with shorter/nonexistent pre- and postperiods (1-14 days) than did a combined perspective. Only a few studies addressed supplemental issues, and minimal contextual information was provided. CONCLUSIONS: General recommendations are to use IMA as the standard nomenclature, rigorously identify all data sources, and delineate all design parameters. Specific methodological recommendations include providing convincing evidence that initial prescribing and dispensing events are identified, supplemental parameters incorporating perspective and substitution biases are addressed, and contextual parameters are included.
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Cumplimiento de la Medicación , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud/normas , Proyectos de Investigación/normas , Consenso , Prescripciones de Medicamentos/normas , Conocimientos, Actitudes y Práctica en Salud , Humanos , Servicios Farmacéuticos/normas , Farmacéuticos/normas , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/normas , Terminología como AsuntoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. RESULTS: The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Routine vaccination with PCV7 in China would be a cost-effective strategy at limiting the negative impact of influenza during a typical influenza season. During an influenza pandemic, the benefit of PCV7 in preventing excess pneumococcal morbidity and mortality renders a PCV7 vaccination program cost-saving.