RESUMEN

Materials scientists employ metals and alloys that involve most of the periodic table. Nonetheless, materials scientists rarely take material criticality and reuse potential into account. In this work, we expand upon lists of "critical materials" generated by national and regional governments by showing that many materials are employed predominantly as alloying elements, which can be a deterrent to recovery and reuse at end of product life and, likely as a consequence, have low functional end-of-life recycling rates, among other problematic characteristics. We thereby single out six metals for enhanced concern: dysprosium, samarium, vanadium, niobium, tellurium, and gallium. From that perspective, the use of critical metals in low concentrations in alloys unlikely to be routinely recycled should be avoided if possible. If not, provision should be made for better identification and more efficient recycling so that materials designated as critical can have increased potential for more than a single functional use.

RESUMEN

During the 20th century, the United States went from being the largest producer and user of lithium to being heavily reliant on imports from Asia, particularly lithium-ion batteries. To explore different futures for U.S. lithium, we here generate four scenarios─including COVID-19 implications─that model lithium use for its main applications: electric and hybrid vehicles, stationary energy storage systems, and small electronics. We find that the "Sustainable Future" scenario requires the highest amount of lithium (cumulatively 1281 Gg in the period 2020-2050, peak inflow in 2040 at 53 Gg); in contrast, "Fossil Fuel Everything" requires only 500 Gg and peaks in 2050 at 26 Gg. COVID-19 implications appear to be negligible in the long run. The future electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet and energy storage systems will depend upon a reliable and resilient international supply chain of lithium chemicals and/or batteries as well as vigorous recycling efforts.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

We present the Yale Stocks and Flows Database (YSTAFDB), which comprises most of the material stocks and flows (STAF) data generated at the Center for Industrial Ecology at Yale University since the early 2000s. These data describe material cycles, criticality, and recycling in terms of 62 elements and various engineering materials, e.g., steel, on spatial scales and timeframes ranging from cities to global and the 1800s to ca. 2013. YSTAFDB integrates this diverse collection of STAF data, previously scattered across various non-uniformly formatted electronic files, into a single data structure and file format. Here, we discuss this data structure as well as the usage and formatting of data records in YSTAFDB. YSTAFDB contains 100,000+ data records that are all situated in their systems contexts, with additional metadata included as available. YSTAFDB offers a comprehensive basis upon which STAF data can be accumulated, integrated, and exchanged, and thereby improves their accessibility. Therefore, YSTAFDB facilitates deeper understanding of sustainable materials use and management, which are key goals of contemporary sustainability science.

RESUMEN

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Indium is a specialty metal crucial for modern technology, yet it is potentially critical due to its byproduct status in mining. Measures to reduce its criticality typically focus on improving its recycling efficiency at end-of-life. This study quantifies primary and secondary indium resources ("stocks") for Australia through a dynamic material-flow analysis. It is based on detailed assessments of indium mineral resources hosted in lead-zinc and copper deposits, respective mining activities from 1844 to 2013, and the trade of indium-containing products from 1988 to 2015. The results show that Australia's indium stocks are substantial, estimated at 46.2 kt in mineral resources and an additional 14.7 kt in mine wastes. Australian mineral resources alone could meet global demand (∼0.8 kt/year) for more than five decades. Discarded material from post-consumer products, instead, is negligible (43 t). This suggests that the resilience of Australia's indium supply can best be increased through efficiency gains in mining (such as introducing domestic indium refining capacity) rather than at the end of the product life. These findings likely also apply to other specialty metals, such as gallium or germanium, and other resource-dominated countries. Finally, the results illustrate that national circular economy strategies can differ substantially.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Decision-makers traditionally expect "hard facts" from scientific inquiry, an expectation that the results of material flow analyses (MFAs) can hardly meet. MFA limitations are attributable to incompleteness of flowcharts, limited data quality, and model assumptions. Moreover, MFA results are, for the most part, based less on empirical observation but rather on social knowledge construction processes. Developing, applying, and improving the means of evaluating and communicating the reliability of MFA results is imperative. We apply two recently proposed approaches for making quantitative statements on MFA reliability to national minor metals systems: rhenium, gallium, and germanium in the United States in 2012. We discuss the reliability of results in policy and management contexts. The first approach consists of assessing data quality based on systematic characterization of MFA data and the associated meta-information and quantifying the "information content" of MFAs. The second is a quantification of data inconsistencies indicated by the "degree of data reconciliation" between the data and the model. A high information content and a low degree of reconciliation indicate reliable or certain MFA results. This article contributes to reliability and uncertainty discourses in MFA, exemplifying the usefulness of the approaches in policy and management, and to raw material supply discussions by providing country-level information on three important minor metals often considered critical.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

In the metals industry, recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for climate change mitigation, because using secondary (recycled) instead of primary sources in metal production carries both the potential for significant energy savings and for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Secondary metal production is, however, limited by the relative quantity of scrap available at end-of-life for two reasons: long product lifespans during use delay the availability of the material for reuse and recycling; and end-of-life recycling rates are low, a result of inefficient collection, separation, and processing. For a few metals, additional losses exist in the form of in-use dissipation. The sum of these lost material flows forms the theoretical maximum potential for future efficiency improvements. Based on a dynamic material flow analysis, we have evaluated these factors from an energy perspective for 50 metals and calculated the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions associated with the supply of lost material from primary sources that would otherwise be used to satisfy demand. A use-by-use examination demonstrates the potential emission gains associated with major application sectors. The results show that minimizing in-use dissipation and constraints to metal recycling have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the metal industry by about 13-23%, corresponding to 1% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

RESUMEN

Imbalances between metal supply and demand, real or anticipated, have inspired the concept of metal criticality. We here characterize the criticality of 62 metals and metalloids in a 3D "criticality space" consisting of supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Contributing factors that lead to extreme values include high geopolitical concentration of primary production, lack of available suitable substitutes, and political instability. The results show that the limitations for many metals important in emerging electronics (e.g., gallium and selenium) are largely those related to supply risk; those of platinum group metals, gold, and mercury, to environmental implications; and steel alloying elements (e.g., chromium and niobium) as well as elements used in high-temperature alloys (e.g., tungsten and molybdenum), to vulnerability to supply restriction. The metals of most concern tend to be those available largely or entirely as byproducts, used in small quantities for highly specialized applications, and possessing no effective substitutes.

RESUMEN

In some common uses metals are lost by intent-copper in brake pads, zinc in tires, and germanium in retained catalyst applications being examples. In other common uses, metals are incorporated into products in ways for which no viable recycling approaches exist, examples include selenium in colored glass and vanadium in pigments. To determine quantitatively the scope of these "losses by design", we have assessed the major uses of 56 metals and metalloids, assigning each use to one of three categories: in-use dissipation, currently unrecyclable when discarded, or potentially recyclable when discarded. In-use dissipation affects fewer than a dozen elements (including mercury and arsenic), but the spectrum of elements dissipated increases rapidly if applications from which they are currently unrecyclable are considered. In many cases the resulting dissipation rates are higher than 50%. Among others, specialty metals (e.g., gallium, indium, and thallium) and some heavy rare earth elements are representative of modern technology, and their loss provides a measure of the degree of unsustainability in the contemporary use of materials and products. Even where uses are currently compatible with recycling technologies and approaches, end of life recycling rates are in most cases well below those that are potentially achievable. The outcomes of this research provide guidance in identifying product design approaches for reducing material losses so as to increase element recovery at end-of-life.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

It is indisputable that modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Those technologies do many things very well, largely because each material is used for purposes to which it is exquisitely fitted. The result over time has been a steady increase in product performance. We show that this materials complexity has markedly increased in the past half-century and that elemental life cycle analyses characterize rates of recycling and loss. A further concern is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. Should materials availability constraints occur, the use of substitute materials comes to mind. We studied substitution potential by generating a comprehensive summary of potential substitutes for 62 different metals in all their major uses and of the performance of the substitutes in those applications. As we show herein, for a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. This situation largely decouples materials substitution from price, thereby forcing material design changes to be primarily transformative rather than incremental. As wealth and population increase worldwide in the next few decades, scientists will be increasingly challenged to maintain and improve product utility by designing new and better materials, but doing so under potential constraints in resource availability.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology was created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to iron and several of its main alloying elements (i.e., vanadium, chromium, manganese, and niobium). These elements represent the basic metals of any industrial society and are vital for national security and economic well-being. Assessments relating to the dimensions of criticality - supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications - for 2008 are made on the global level and for the United States. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented, with aggregate results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates. Iron has the lowest supply risk, primarily because of its widespread geological occurrence. Vanadium displays the highest cradle-to-gate environmental implications, followed by niobium, chromium, manganese, and iron. Chromium and manganese, both essential in steel making, display the highest vulnerability to supply restriction, largely because substitution or substitution at equal performance is not possible for all end-uses. From a comprehensive perspective, we regard the overall criticality as low for iron and modest for the alloying elements we evaluated.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Metals are infinitely recyclable in principle, but in practice, recycling is often inefficient or essentially nonexistent because of limits imposed by social behavior, product design, recycling technologies, and the thermodynamics of separation. We review these topics, distinguishing among common, specialty, and precious metals. The most beneficial actions that could improve recycling rates are increased collection rates of discarded products, improved design for recycling, and the enhanced deployment of modern recycling methodology. As a global society, we are currently far away from a closed-loop material system. Much improvement is possible, but limitations of many kinds--not all of them technological--will preclude complete closure of the materials cycle.

RESUMEN

The use of stainless steel, a metal employed in a wide range of technology applications, has been characterized for 51 countries and the world for the years 2000 and 2005. We find that the global stainless steel flow-into-use increased by more than 30% in that 5 year period, as did additions to in-use stocks. This growth was mainly driven by China, which accounted for almost half of the global growth in stainless steel crude production and which tripled its flow into use between 2000 and 2005. The global stainless steel-specific end-of-life recycling rate increased from 66% (2000) to 70% (2005); the landfilling rate was 22% for both years, and 9% (2000) to 12% (2005) was lost into recycled carbon and alloy steels. Within just 5 years, China passed such traditionally strong stainless steel producers and users as Japan, USA, Germany, and South Korea to become the dominant player of the stainless steel industry. However, China did not produce any significant stainless steel end-of-life flows in 2000 or 2005 because its products-in-use are still too new to require replacements. Major Chinese discard flows are expected to begin between 2015 and 2020.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The anthropogenic nickel cycle for the year 2000 was analyzed using a material flow analysis at multiple levels: 52 countries, territories, or country groups, eight regions, and the planet. Special attention was given to the trade in nickel-containing products at different stages of the cycle. A new circular diagram highlights process connections, the role and potential of recycling, and the relevance of trade at different life stages. The following results were achieved. (1) The nickel cycle is dominated by six countries or territories: USA, China and Hong Kong, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, and South Korea; only China also mines some of its nickel used. (2) Nickel is mostly used in alloyed form in stainless steels (68%). (3) More scrap is used for the production of stainless steels (42%) than for other first uses (11%). (4) Industrial machinery is the largest end use category for nickel (25%), followed by buildings and infrastructure (21%) and transportation (20%). (5) 57% of discarded nickel is recycled within the nickel and stainless steel industries, and 14% is lost to other metal markets where nickel is an unwanted constituent of carbon steel and copper alloy scrap.

Asunto(s)