RESUMEN
Introducción. El dengue es la enfermedad de más rápida propagación en el mundo y una permanente amenaza para la salud pública mundial, con aproximadamente 2,5 millones de personas en alto riesgo de infección. Ante la gravedad del cuadro de la enfermedad a nivel nacional y mundial, es necesario generar nuevas metodologías de predicción útiles para la adopción de decisiones en salud pública. Objetivo. Caracterizar los casos notificados de dengue entre el 2009 y el 2013 en el departamento del Valle del Cauca y presentar la metodología para elaborar canales endémicos en el caso del dengue. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio descriptivo retrospectivo, utilizando la base de datos secundaria de las fichas de notificación, y se caracterizaron los casos de dengue entre el 2009 y el 2013. Se elaboraron dos canales endémicos, uno mediante promedios móviles y el otro con suavización exponencial. Resultados. Se evidenció que la tendencia del dengue en el departamento del Valle del Cauca es positiva, lo que indica que en los últimos cinco años se ha incrementado el número de casos, aunque se observa una variación importante que podría explicarse por el ciclo de tres años que se inicia a partir del primer periodo epidemiológico del año. Conclusión. La elaboración del canal endémico del dengue en el Valle del Cauca evidenció la importancia de aplicar estas metodologías de vigilancia en las situaciones de interés en salud pública. Como se observó en los resultados, hubo años en los que el número de casos fue muy bajo y otros en los que la epidemia alcanzó cifras muy elevadas.
Introduction: Dengue is the fastest spreading disease in the world and a permanent threat to global public health. It is a viral illness for which approximately 2.5 million people are at high risk of infection. Given the severity of the disease at national and global levels, new predictive methodologies need to be generated to facilitate decision-making in public health. Objective: To characterize cases of dengue reported from 2009 to 2013 in Valle del Cauca department, Colombia, and to establish a methodology to develop endemic channels that can be applied to this event. Materials and methods: This was a retrospective descriptive study. Notification forms were used as a secondary database to characterize dengue cases from 2009 to 2013. Two endemic channels were developed, one using running means and the other through exponential smoothing. Results: Dengue in the department of Valle del Cauca showed a positive tendency, indicating that the number of cases had increased in the last five years. An important variation was observed that could be explained by a three-year cycle beginning in the first epidemiological period of the year. Conclusion: The development of the dengue endemic channel for Valle del Cauca illustrates the importance of applying these monitoring methodologies to events of public health interest. As can be seen from the results, there were some years in which the number of cases was very low and others in which the epidemic reached very high levels.
Asunto(s)
Dengue/epidemiología , Notificación de Enfermedades , Aedes , Colombia , Virus del Dengue , Enfermedades Endémicas , Salud PúblicaRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Dengue is the fastest spreading disease in the world and a permanent threat to global public health. It is a viral illness for which approximately 2.5 million people are at high risk of infection. Given the severity of the disease at national and global levels, new predictive methodologies need to be generated to facilitate decision-making in public health. OBJECTIVE: To characterize cases of dengue reported from 2009 to 2013 in Valle del Cauca department, Colombia, and to establish a methodology to develop endemic channels that can be applied to this event. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective descriptive study. Notification forms were used as a secondary database to characterize dengue cases from 2009 to 2013. Two endemic channels were developed, one using running means and the other through exponential smoothing. RESULTS: Dengue in the department of Valle del Cauca showed a positive tendency, indicating that the number of cases had increased in the last five years. An important variation was observed that could be explained by a three-year cycle beginning in the first epidemiological period of the year. CONCLUSION: The development of the dengue endemic channel for Valle del Cauca illustrates the importance of applying these monitoring methodologies to events of public health interest. As can be seen from the results, there were some years in which the number of cases was very low and others in which the epidemic reached very high levels.