RESUMEN
Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Predicción , Alemania/epidemiología , Humanos , Modelos Estadísticos , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Polonia/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2/fisiología , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
The goal of this survey was to evaluate the patients and their relatives' satisfaction with a home-based crisis intervention provided by a psychiatric mobile crisis team (Equipe Rapide d'Intervention de Crise, hôpital Charcot, Plaisir). We were particularly interested in measuring satisfaction with telephone response time, team mobility, patient welcome, family consultations, information given to patients and the number of caregivers. We designed a questionnaire that included 24 closed questions and 2 open-ended questions. Replies were collected over the telephone by an outside psychologist with no prior knowledge of the patients. The inclusion criteria were the following: the patient had to have received a home-based crisis intervention from the mobile crisis team and to have received at least two follow-up consultations. The response rate was 95%, from 81 relatives and 73 patients. The results show a high level of overall satisfaction, with satisfaction levels at over 90% for some of the questions. High satisfaction was due to the human and professional approach of staff - their listening skills and competence - the 24-hour availability of the telephone service, the fast intervention of the team, the team mobility, and the systematic involvement of relatives as part of the program. Low satisfaction was due to the high number of caregivers, the short length of programs, the patient referral process to outpatient services, the lack of information on medication and patients' illness and the sad appearance of the building. These results lead us to improve some aspects of our service or at least to explain our services more fully to clients. More generally, these results encourage us to listen more attentively to patients' opinions on how they experience their psychiatric care.