RESUMEN
Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide, particularly affecting over 60 million people living below 10 m above sea level along the African coast. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of sea level anomaly (SLA) and its components (thermosteric, halosteric and ocean mass) in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (ETAO) from 1993 to 2022. The SLA trend for the ETAO, derived from satellite altimetry, is 3.52 ± 0.47 mm/year, similar to the global average of 3.56 ± 0.67 mm/year. Of the three upwelling regions, the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) shows the highest regional trend of 3.42 ± 0.12 mm/year. Using the ARMORD3D dataset, a positive thermosteric sea level trend of 0.88 ± 0.04 mm/year is observed, particularly in the equatorial and southern Atlantic regions. The steric component drives the interannual SLA variability, while the ocean mass component dominates the long-term trends, as confirmed by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions for 2002-2022. For those two decades, the total SLR from altimetry amounts to 3.80 ± 0.8 mm/year, whilst the steric component is reduced to only 0.19 ± 0.05 mm/year, leaving a residual increase in the ETAO of 3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year. The independent mass change from GRACE amounts to 2.78 ± 0.6 mm/year for this region, which just closes the sea level budget within present uncertainty levels. Spatial analysis of the steric components indicates a warming along the equatorial African coast including the GoG and a freshening near Angola. Strong correlations with regional climate factors, particularly the Tropical South Atlantic Index, highlight the influence of persistent climate modes. These findings underscore the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to SLR in the ETAO, especially for densely populated coastal communities.
RESUMEN
Tropical Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, most notably sea-level rise. The current sea-level rise in the Caribbean is 3.40 ± 0.3 mm/year (1993-2019), which is similar to the 3.25 ± 0.4 mm/year global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise (1993-2018). Throughout the year, Caribbean seasonal sea-level variability is found to respond to sea surface temperature variability. Over the past few decades, the trend in Caribbean Sea-level rise is also found to be variable. Satellite altimetry and steric sea-level records of the Caribbean region reveal a shift in the late 2003-early 2004, which separates two distinct periods of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion dominates the sea-level trend from 1993-2003. Following this period, there is an increased trend in sea-level rise, with a dominance of mass changes from 2004-2019, as confirmed by GRACE data. During this period, the sea-level trend is 6.15 ± 0.5 mm/year, which is 67% faster than the most recent estimates of global mean sea-level rise provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year for the period 2006-2018). Despite its reduced importance, increasing temperatures contribute greatly to sea-level rise in the Caribbean region through thermal expansion of ocean water, hence there is a need to limit the current trend of global warming.
RESUMEN
Coastal zones with dense populations, low elevations and/or inadequate adaptive capacity are on the frontline of unprecedented impacts from climate change. The Gulf of Guinea (GoG), stretching from Liberia to Gabon, is in particular vulnerable to coastal flooding caused by local and/or climate-induced sea level rise. In this region, interannual to decadal coastal sea level changes remain poorly understood, mainly due to a lack of tide gauge stations. Here we use nearly three decades (1993-2021) of satellite altimetry data to study the link between the Equatorial Atlantic and coastal GoG sea level variability. The rate of mean sea level rise increased from 3.47 to 3.89 ± 0.10 mm/yr from the Equatorial oceanic domain to the GoG coastal area, with an acceleration of 0.094 ± 0.050 mm/yr2. This corresponds to a mean sea level rise of about 8.9 cm over the entire altimetry period, 1993-2021. We focus on the (extreme) warm/cold events that occur in both the GoG during Atlantic Niños, and along the Angola-Namibia coast during Benguela Niños. Both events are driven by remote forcing via equatorial Kelvin waves and local forcing by local winds, freshwater fluxes and currents intensifications. Analysis of altimetry-based sea level, sea surface temperature anomalies, 20 °C isotherm based PIRATA moorings, and the Argo-based steric and thermometric sea level allows us to follow the coastal trapped waves (CTWs) along the GoG, and its link with major events observed along the strong Equatorial Atlantic warmings in 2010, 2012, 2019 and 2021. Both 2019 and 2021 warming have been identified as the warmest event ever reported in this region during the last 40 years. A lag of 1 month is observed between equatorial and West African coastal trapped wave propagation. This observation may help to better anticipate and manage the effects of extreme events on local ecosystems, fisheries, and socio-economic activities along the affected coastlines. In order to enable informed decision-making and guarantee the resilience of coastal communities in the face of climate change, it emphasises the significance of ongoing study in this field.