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BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020. METHODS: The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2011, the majority - but not all - of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts. CONCLUSIONS: It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.

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Background: We analysed illicit stimulant use in Finland by comparing three separate datasets collected at the same time. Methods: The data used were wastewater analysis (2014 and 2018), population-based drug surveys (2014 and 2018) and European Web Survey on Drugs (2018, Finnish data). Proportions, prevalence levels and trends of stimulant use as well as their consumption were measured. Factors associated with stimulant use were assessed for past-year stimulant or amphetamine use as an outcome measure in regression analyses. Results: Both population-based drug survey and wastewater data showed that stimulant use has increased in Finland between 2014 and 2018. Disadvantaged socio-demographic background and other substance use were associated with past-year stimulant use, with no geographical variation in Finland. The socio-demographics of those reporting amphetamine use differed between population-based drug survey and web survey. In the web survey, infrequent and occasional users of amphetamine were quite alike, whereas frequent users were more likely to be unemployed or use injection as the route of administration. Conclusion: Analysis of three different data revealed findings that would have been missed and conclusions that could not have been made by using only one dataset. Putting findings from different methods into dialogue raises new questions and opens new interpretations. This analysis emphasises the importance of the prevention of frequent use and associated harm, as well as the impact of versatile drug treatment and harm reduction services on it.

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BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between social determinants and a broad selection of drug-related deaths in a general population. METHODS: We conducted a follow-up of an 11% random sample of working-age Finnish residents for 1996-2007 linked with an oversampling of deaths and population registration data on social characteristics. We defined total drug-related deaths as those from psychoactive substance use disorders and drug-induced poisonings (drug-induced deaths) as well as drug-related accidents, homicides, illnesses, and suicides. RESULTS: The number of drug-related deaths was three times that of drug-induced deaths. We found the highest hazard ratios (HRs) for total drug-related mortality for long-term unemployment (4.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-5.6), short-term unemployment (3.9; 95% CI, 3.5-4.4), and retirement (5.8; 95% CI, 5.1-6.8). The HRs were highest for mortality related to psychoactive substance use disorders and lowest for mortality related to drug-related suicides. The differences were large for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Drug-related mortality was associated with social disadvantage; however, the strength of the association varied by drug-related cause of death. Primary and secondary prevention of drug use should particularly target disadvantaged groups.

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BACKGROUND: The non-medical use of prescription drugs is a growing phenomenon associated with increasing health-related harms. However, little is known about the drivers of this process among illicit drug users. Our aim is to show how the qualities of pharmaceutical drugs, pharmaceutical related knowledge, online communities sharing this knowledge and medical professionals mediate and transform the consumption behaviour related to pharmaceutical drugs. METHODS: The data consist of discussion threads from an online drug use forum. Using actor network theory (ANT), we analysed translations that mediate the online user community's relationship with pharmaceutical drugs. RESULTS: Differences in experienced drug effects are explained both as a process of 'learning' and as differences in brain chemistry at the receptor level. Both science- and experience-based information are shared on best practices to optimise use, avoid adverse health effects and maximise the experience of intoxication. The expanded context of doctors' practices places stress on the medical framework for drug use. Our analysis shows how the non-medical use of psychoactive pharmaceuticals relates to joint, medicalised ideas of bodies as sites of medical experimentation, as well as to the collective process of constructing 'pharmaceutical competences' in user networks. Understandings of intoxication have increasingly been permeated with the pharmacological and scientific logic of knowledge. CONCLUSION: The forum works as a platform for harm reduction inspired exchange of knowledge. However, the user community's knowledge sharing practices can generate a shared perception of a sufficient or even superior drug use experience and knowledge. This may lead to overdoses and other risky behaviour, and thereby contribute to increased harms related to non-medical use of prescription drugs.

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INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Psychoactive prescription drug (PPD) abuse-related overdose deaths have increased in many countries in recent decades. We aimed to investigate the role of personally prescribed psychoactive drugs in abuse-related overdose mortality and explore any associations with level of social disadvantage. DESIGN AND METHODS: This register linkage study included all 243 people who had died of abuse-related drug-induced poisoning in Finland in 2000 and 2008. Data on registered purchases of psychoactive drugs within one and three years of death were linked to data on the psychoactive drug/s contributing to death in each case. Social disadvantage was measured by receipt of income support, long-term unemployment and disability pension. RESULTS: Thirty-six percent of those abusers who had died of a drug overdose had purchased a similarly acting drug within three years of death. In all overdoses, the proportion increased from 20% in 2000 to 49% in 2008 (P < 0.001). A similar increase was seen in purchases within one year of death; from one-tenth in 2000 to one-third of all cases in 2008 (P < 0.001). The majority (83%) of the deceased had received income support, while only 13-14% were long-term unemployed or on disability pension. Disability pension recipients had significantly more prescribed psychoactive drug purchases than non-recipients (P < 0.001 for three and one years within death). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Personally prescribed PPDs pose a potential threat to people who abuse drugs. Health-care services should invest greater effort in identifying people who abuse drugs and in monitoring their drug prescriptions.

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BACKGROUND: Historically substance misuse has been relatively common in western countries, but comparatively few Finns report drug use. The Drugs 2020 study aimed at foreseeing changes in the drug situation in Finland by the year 2020. METHODS: The Delphi method was used, utilizing drug experts of the EU national network in Finland. RESULTS: Marked growth was foreseen in drug use, especially in synthetic designer drugs and misuse of medicinal drugs. Significant increase was also expected in growing cannabis at home. However, the control of drug market was expected to shift more into the hands of organized crime. No consensus was reached on how drug prices will develop in the time period. Drug use is likely to remain punishable although the use and possession of cannabis may be treated less severely. It seems likely that health and social services resources will be directed towards medicinal treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Foresight can be utilized in preparing for the future; desirable developments can be fostered, and measures can be taken to curb probable but undesirable lines of development. Based on the results of this study, the experts' view is that it is highly likely that the Finnish society will have to prepare for an increase in the demand for drug-related care, both in terms of content of the care and financing the services. Also, the forecasted increase in the role of legal prescription medicine used as intoxicants will call for efforts not only in changing prescription practices but in border and police control measures, as well. Parallel developments have been foreseen in the UK and Sweden, and it is likely that similar trends will actualize also in other western countries.

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