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PURPOSE: The proportion of cured gastric cancer patients has drawn the attention of patients, physicians, and healthcare providers after comprehensive prevention and control measures were carried out for several years. Therefore, the relative survival and cure fraction were estimated in our study. METHODS: Population-based cancer registration data were used to estimate survival and cure fraction. A total of 7585 gastric cancer cases (ICD10:C16.0 ~ C16.9) were extracted and included in the final analysis. Cases were diagnosed in 2003-2012 and followed until the end of 2017. Relative survival was calculated as the ratio between the observed survival through the life-table method. The expected survival was estimated by the Ederer II method. The cure fraction was estimated using flexible parametric cure models stratified by age and calendar period when the cases were diagnosed. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival of cardia gastric cancer increased with the calendar period of 2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012 (27.5%, 28.3%, 33.5%, 38.2%, and 46.8%, respectively). The increasing trend along with the calendar periods was also observed in cure proportion of cardia gastric cancer (24.8%, 25.2%, 31.7%, 36.0%, and 43.1%, respectively). Notable improvement of cure proportion was observed in the period of 2011-2012, compared with the initial period of 2003-2004. There was an improvement of 79.8% among all gastric cancer subjects, and it was 74.1% and 55.7% in cardia gastric and noncardia gastric cancer subjects, respectively. The median survival of "uncured" patients showed no significant improvement along with the calendar periods in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Notable improvement of gastric cancer relative survival and cure proportion was observed in Linzhou during 2003-2012.

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OBJECTIVE: The cancer etiology in children and adolescents is largely different with that in adults, and the description in epidemiology still remains deficiency. Therefore, we described the cancer incidence and related epidemiological features in children and adolescents to provide clues for etiological studies. METHODS: Cancer incidence stratified by age, gender, and areas was calculated using data extracted from population-based cancer registries in Henan Province, China. All cancer among children aged 0-19 years were reclassified according to category criteria of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer, 3rd Edition (ICCC-3). Age-standardized rate (WSR) was calculated using Segi's world standardized population by the direct method, and it was expressed per million person-years. RESULTS: The crude cancer incidence and mortality were 87.56 and 36.32 per million person-years among children aged 0-19 years, and the WSRs slightly changed compared with crude incidence and mortality, and they were 87.36 and 35.46 per million person-years. Leukemia and central nervous system neoplasms (CNS) were the most common cancer categories both in children aged 0-14 years and in adolescents aged 15-19 years in regardless of gender and areas. Tiny difference of incidence and mortality existed in different age groups across 0-14 years; however, they were higher in adolescents aged 15-19 years than that in children aged 0-14 years. Among children aged 0-19 years, the cancer incidence and mortality were predominant in boys, and the sex ratio was 1.19; however, it was varied by diagnostic categories. CONCLUSION: This is the first study that described the cancer incidence and mortality among children aged 0-19 in Henan Province, and it would help researchers to understand the burden and epidemiological characteristics of childhood cancer, and hence suggested clues for the etiological studies.

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OBJECTIVE: Liver cancer is one of the most common types of cancer. We aimed to use the cancer registration data in 2015 to estimate the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Henan province. METHODS: The data from 37 population-based cancer registries in Henan province were collected for this study. The pooled data were stratified by area, sex, and age group. New cases of liver cancer and deaths due to the disease were estimated using age-specific rates and provincial population in 2015. All incidence and death rates were age standardized to the 2000 Chinese standard population and Segi's population, which were expressed per 100,000 populations. RESULTS: After clearance and assessment, data from 30 population-based cancer registries (5 in urban and 25 in rural areas) were included in the analysis. All 30 cancer registries encompassed a total population of 23,421,609 (3,507,984 in urban and 19,913,625 in rural areas), accounting for 21.84% of the provincial population. The proportion of morphological verification (MV%), percentage of cancer cases identified with death certification only (DCO%), and mortality-to-incidence ratio (M/I) were 38.55%, 2.34%, and 0.81, respectively. Approximately 31,639 new cases of liver cancer were diagnosed and 26,057 deaths from liver cancer occurred in Henan in 2015. The crude incidence rate of liver cancer was 27.05/100,000 (36.24/100,000 in men and 17.35/100,000 in women). Age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and world standard population were 21.10/100,000 and 20.95/100,000, respectively. Liver cancer was more common in men than in women. The incidence rates in urban (26.31/100,000) and rural (27.18/100,000) areas were similar. The crude mortality rate of liver cancer was 21.98/100,000 (29.33/100,000 in males and 14.22/100,000 in females). Age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and world standard population were 16.93/100,000 and 16.90/100,000, respectively. There was no distinct difference in mortality rates of liver cancer between urban (22.55/100,000) and rural (21.87/100,000) areas. CONCLUSIONS: Liver cancer has posed a heavy burden on people in Henan province. Comprehensive measures should be conducted to prevent the increase in the incidence of liver cancer.

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Although a number of studies have investigated the association between human papillomavirus (HPV) and lung cancer prognosis, the results remain inconsistent. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies to address this issue. Searches of the MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases from their inception until June 30, 2016 yielded nine studies involving a total of 1,205 lung cancer cases that were used to conduct the meta-analysis. Study-specific risk estimates were pooled using a random-effects model. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) comparing HPV-positive to HPV-negative cancers 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-1.28) was not significantly correlated with overall survival. However, lung adenocarcinoma patients with HPV infections exhibited a survival benefit compared to those without HPV infection (HR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.50-0.96). This meta-analysis suggests HPV infection is a prognostic marker in lung adenocarcinoma. To further elucidate the epidemiology and pathogenesis of HPV infections in lung cancer, future large prospective studies are encouraged to stratify survival analysis based on the pathological type and clinical stage of the cancer.

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Objective:To describe the cancer incidences and mortalities in Henan cancer registries in 2013.Methods:Registration data were evaluated according to the criteria of quality control of cancer registry,and the qualified data were analyzed based on areas(urban/rural), gender,age and cancer sites.The age-standardized rates were applied according to Segi's population and the fifth Chinese population census in 2000.Results:The total coverage of population from 19 qualified cancer registries data was 16,225,815(15.13%),Among which,8,370, 772(51.59%)were males and 7,855,043(48.41%)were females;and 2,819,817(17.38%)live in urban areas and 13,405,998(82.62%) live in rural areas.The crude incidence rate in Henan was 250.34/105(males:264.35/105,females:235.42/105),whereas the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and by world standard population were 208.66/105and 207.25/105,respectively.The cumulative incidence rate(0-74 years old)was 24.31%.The cancer mortality in Henan was 161.05/105(males:185.50/105,females:134.98/105),whereas the age-standardized mortality by Chinese standard population and by world standard population were 131.18/105and 131.52/105,respectively.The cumulative mortality rate(0-74 years old)was 15.05%.Cancer incidence and mortality rates were increasing by age, reaching the peak values at 80 age group and 85 plus age group,respectively.Lung cancer,gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer and colorectal cancer were the most common cancers ranked by the incidence rate,and the most common cause of cancer death was lung cancer,followed by gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer and colorectal cancer.Incidence rate and mortality rate of breast cancer ranked the first and the fifth among the females,respectively.Conclusion:Cancer incidence and mortality rates were higher in the rural areas and in males than in the urban areas and in females.Lung cancer,digestive system cancers,and female breast cancer are the major cancer types that require attention for the prevention and control in Henan.

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Objective:To describe the cancer incidences and mortalities in Henan cancer registries in 2013.Methods:Registration data were evaluated according to the criteria of quality control of cancer registry,and the qualified data were analyzed based on areas(urban/rural), gender,age and cancer sites.The age-standardized rates were applied according to Segi's population and the fifth Chinese population census in 2000.Results:The total coverage of population from 19 qualified cancer registries data was 16,225,815(15.13%),Among which,8,370, 772(51.59%)were males and 7,855,043(48.41%)were females;and 2,819,817(17.38%)live in urban areas and 13,405,998(82.62%) live in rural areas.The crude incidence rate in Henan was 250.34/105(males:264.35/105,females:235.42/105),whereas the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and by world standard population were 208.66/105and 207.25/105,respectively.The cumulative incidence rate(0-74 years old)was 24.31%.The cancer mortality in Henan was 161.05/105(males:185.50/105,females:134.98/105),whereas the age-standardized mortality by Chinese standard population and by world standard population were 131.18/105and 131.52/105,respectively.The cumulative mortality rate(0-74 years old)was 15.05%.Cancer incidence and mortality rates were increasing by age, reaching the peak values at 80 age group and 85 plus age group,respectively.Lung cancer,gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer and colorectal cancer were the most common cancers ranked by the incidence rate,and the most common cause of cancer death was lung cancer,followed by gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer and colorectal cancer.Incidence rate and mortality rate of breast cancer ranked the first and the fifth among the females,respectively.Conclusion:Cancer incidence and mortality rates were higher in the rural areas and in males than in the urban areas and in females.Lung cancer,digestive system cancers,and female breast cancer are the major cancer types that require attention for the prevention and control in Henan.

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BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been identified to be related to progression of esophageal cancer. However, the results remain controversial. A meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was therefore conducted to address this issue. METHODS: The electronic databases of MEDLINE and Excerpta Medica database were searched till April 30, 2016. Study-specific risk estimates were pooled using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Ten studies involving a total of 1184 esophageal cancer cases were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled hazard ratio comparing HPV-positive to HPV-negative esophageal cancers was 1.03 (95% confidence interval 0.78-1.37), which was not significantly correlated with improved survival. However, HPV-16-positive patients might have a significantly favorable survival (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.44-1.21). CONCLUSION: The meta-analysis indicated that HPV infection may not be of prognostic utility in the evaluation of factors contributing to esophageal cancer. Further large prospective studies are encouraged to stratify survival analysis by HPV type.

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In China, esophageal cancer has remained a large burden, and endoscopic screening is expected to reduce esophageal cancer mortality. Therefore, a population-based case-control study was conducted to evaluate the effect of screening. Cases were defined as individuals who had died of esophageal cancer, and controls were residents from the same area (three per case) who had not died of esophageal cancer, matched by gender and birth year. The exposure status (whether cases and controls had ever attended the screening or not) was acquired by inspecting the well documented screening records. A conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). There were 253 cases and 759 controls. The reduction in risk of esophageal cancer mortality in individuals who had ever attended screening was 47% (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.37-0.77). Compared with never-screened subjects, the ORs for screened subjects within 36 and 48 months before the reference date were 0.59(0.39-0.89) and 0.59(0.40-0.87); the ORs for 50-59 year old subjects were 0.48(0.28-0.85). The results suggest a 47% reduction in esophageal cancer mortality risk due to endoscopic screening, which may have significant implications for esophageal cancer screening in China, especially in rural areas.

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OBJECTIVE: Population-based cancer registration data in 2012 from all available cancer registries in Henan province were collected by Henan Office for Cancer Research and Control. The numbers of new cancer cases and cancer deaths in Henan province with compiled cancer incidence and mortality rates were estimated. METHODS: In 2015, all registries' data in Henan province were qualified for the national cancer registry annual report in 2012. The pooled data were stratified by area (urban/rural), gender, age group (0, 1.4, 5.9, 10.14, …, 85+) and cancer type. New cancer cases and deaths were estimated using age-specific rates and corresponding population of Henan province in 2012. The Chinese census data in 2000 and Segi's population were applied for age-standardized rates. All the rates were expressed per 100,000 person-years. RESULTS: Qualified 19 cancer registries (4 urban and 15 rural registries) covered 16,082,688 populations of Henan province in 2012. The percentage of cases with morphologically verified (MV%) and death certificateonly cases (DCO%) were 69.84% and 2.30%, respectively, and the mortality to incidence rate ratio (M/I) was 0.64. It was estimated that there were 248,510 new cancer cases and 158,630 cancer deaths in Henan province in 2012. The incidence rate was 266.17/100,000 (288.61/100,000 in males and 241.86/100,000 in females), the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 208.95/100,000 and 206.41/100,000 with the cumulative incidence rate (0.74 years old) of 24.30%. The crude incidence rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas. However, after adjusted by age, the cancer incidence rate in rural was higher than that in urban areas. The crude mortality of all cancers in Henan province was 169.90/100,000 (201.23/100,000 in males and 135.95/100,000 in females). The age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) and by world standard population (ASMRW) were 131.20/100,000 and 130.80/100,000, respectively. Among the patients aged 0.74 years, the cumulative mortality rate was 15.03%. The crude cancer mortality rate in urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. However, the age-standardized rate in rural areas was higher than that of urban areas. Cancers of lung, stomach, esophagus, liver, female breast, colorectum, cervix, brain, uterus and ovary were the most common cancers, accounting for about 82.80% of all cancer new cases. Lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer, brain cancer, leukemia, pancreatic cancer and cervix cancer were the leading causes of cancer deaths, accounting for about 88.50% of all cancer deaths. The burden between urban and rural, males and females were different. CONCLUSIONS: Registration data of Henan province was qualified to provide basic information on population-based cancer incidence, mortality for cancer prevention and control. The upper digestive tract cancer burden in Henan province, especially for males in rural areas, was higher. The incidence rate of female breast cancer was higher in urban areas. Targeted prevention, early detection and treatment programs should be carried out by health department to control the cancer burden.

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In China, a large burden of gastric cancer has remained, and endoscopic screening was expected to reduce gastric cancer mortality. Therefore, a population-based case-control study was conducted to evaluate the screening effect. The gastric cancer screening program was initiated in Linzhou in the year 2005, and endoscopic examination with indicative biopsy, for residents aged 40-69 years, was used to detect early cancer and precancerous lesion. In this study, cases were defined as individuals who had died of gastric cancer, which were selected from Linzhou Cancer Registry database. Controls were residents (six per case), who had not died of gastric cancer, from the same area as the case, and matched by gender and age (±2 years). The exposure status, whether cases and controls ever attended the screening or not, was acquired by inspecting the well-documented screening records. Conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). A total of 313 cases and 1876 controls were included in our analysis. Compared with subjects who never participated in screening, the overall OR for individuals who ever participated in screening was 0.72(95% CI: 0.54-0.97). The OR for lag time 4 years or longer was 0.68(95% CI: 0.47-0.98) and the OR for those who were aged 50-59 years were 0.56 (0.37-0.85). The results suggest a 28% reduction in risk of gastric cancer mortality by endoscopic screening, which may have significant implications for gastric cancer screening in rural areas of China.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between obesity and the risk of lung cancer and evaluate a dose-response relationship between body mass index (BMI) and incidence risk of lung cancer in the Chinese population. METHODS: A systematic literature search for BMI and incidence risk of lung cancer in the Chinese population, as well as through the reference lists of retrieved articles. The literature databases including Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, PubMed, Embase and Google Scholar. Time range was from the founding of each database to September 2014 and a total of 93 research papers were collected. Meta-analysis was conducted to calculate pooled odds ratio and corresponding 95% CI. Generalized least-squares regression methods were used to make a dose-response meta-analysis between BMI and incidence risk of lung cancer. RESULTS: Seven studies were included in the meta-analysis, with a number of 2 351 lung cancer cases. Results showed that obesity was inversely associated with lung cancer incidence (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.59-0.79) (heterogeneity test: I² = 0, P = 0.594). The association did not change with stratification by study design, sex, smoking status, BMI measurement method and study population. A linear dose-response association between BMI and risk of lung cancer was visually significant, and lung cancer risk would be reduced 21% for per 5 kg/m² BMI increase (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.71-0.89) (heterogeneity test: q = 22.43, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: The results of this meta-analysis indicated that higher BMI was a protective factor against lung cancer, but smoking may play a stronger role as a confounding factor for the most important role with lung cancer incidence.

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Associations between elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) and breast cancer risk have been reported for many years, but the results remain controversial. To address this issue, a meta-analysis was therefore conducted. Eligible studies were identified by searching the PubMed and EMBASE up to December 2014. Study-specific risk estimates were combined using a random-effects model. Altogether fifteen cohort and case-control studies were included in this meta-analysis, involving a total of 5,286 breast cancer cases. The combined OR per natural log unit change in CRP for breast cancer was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06-1.27). There was moderate heterogeneity among studies (I(2) = 45.9%). The association was stronger in Asian population (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.25-1.96) compared to European (OR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02-1.23) and American (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.16). Prediagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations (OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10-1.35) was superior to common CRP (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.15) in predicting breast cancer risk. The meta-analysis indicated that elevated CRP levels was associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Further research effort should be performed to identify whether CRP, as a marker of inflammation, plays a direct role in breast carcinogenesis.

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BACKGROUND: The role of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the development of esophageal cancer remains controversial. Our study aims to test the association between HPV 16 infection and esophageal cancer in China, providing useful information on this unclear association in Chinese population. METHODS: Studies on HPV infection and esophageal cancer were identified. A random-effects model was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing cases with controls. RESULTS: A total of 1442 esophageal cancer cases and 1602 controls from 10 included studies were evaluated to estimate the association between HPV 16 infection and esophageal cancer risk. The ORs for each case-control studies ranged from 3.65 (95% CI: 2.17, 6.13) to 15.44 (95% CI: 3.42, 69.70). The pooled estimates for OR was 6.36 (95% CI: 4.46, 9.07). In sensitivity analysis, the estimates for OR ranged from 5.92 (95% CI: 4.08, 8.60) to 6.97 (95% CI: 4.89, 9.93). CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that HPV-16 infection may be a risk factor for esophageal cancer among Chinese population, supporting an etiological role of HPV16 in this malignancy. Results in this study may have important implications for esophageal cancer prevention and treatment in China.

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OBJECTIVE: To summarize the results of endoscopic screening of esophageal, gastric cardiac and gastric cancers in the high-risk population, and analyze the influencing factors such as age, gender and biopsy rate on their detection and early diagnosis rates. METHODS: Nine high incidence cities and counties of esophageal cancer in Henan province were included in this study. People aged 40-69 years were set to the target population. Excluding contraindications for gastroscopy, in accordance with the national technical scheme of early cancer diagnosis and treatment, gastroscopic screening and biopsy pathology for human esophageal, cardiac and gastric cancers were carried out. RESULTS: During the 3-year period, a total of 40 156 subjects were screened. Among them, 18 459 cases of various precancerous lesions (46.0%) were detected. The cancer detection rate was 2.3% (916 cases), including 763 cases of early cancers. The diagnosis rate of early cancers was 83.3%. Precancerous lesions were detected in 9297 cases (23.2%) for esophagus and 9162 cases (22.8%) for gastric cardia as well as stomach, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate that endoscopic screening is feasible for early detection, diagnosis and treatment of esophageal, gastric cardia and gastric cancers among high risk population in high incidence area. Exploration analysis of relevant affecting factors may help to further improve the screening project for early diagnosis and treatment of those cancers.

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BACKGROUND AND AIM: No firm evidence of HPV infection in esophageal cancer has been established to date. The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the prevalence of HPV 16 in esophageal cancer in China, which had a high burden of the disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Studies on HPV infection and esophageal cancer were identified and a random-effects model was used to pool the summary prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: A total of 3,429 esophageal cancer cases were evaluated from 26 eligible studies in this meta-analysis. The summary estimate for HPV16 prevalence was 0.381 (95% CI: 0.283, 0.479). The prevalence varied by geographical areas of the study, publication year, HPV detection method and types of specimen. In sensitivity analysis, HPV 16 prevalence ranged from 0.368 (95% CI: 0.276, 0.460) to 0.397 (95% CI: 0.286, 0.508). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate a relatively high level of HPV 16 prevalence in esophageal cancer among Chinese population, although there was variation between different variables. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role of HPV in esophageal carcinogenesis with careful consideration of study design and laboratory detection method, providing more accurate assessment of the HPV status in esophageal cancer.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the cancer incidence and mortality of Henan province in 2009. METHODS: On basis of the criteria of data quality from the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR), data from 6 registries in Henan province were evaluated, covering 6 061 564 people, accounting for 6.45% of the total population in Henan in 2009. There were 3 104 991 people of males, and 2 956 573 people of females. The incidence, mortality, 10 most common cancers, constitution and cumulative rate (0-74 years old) were then calculated. The age-standardized rate was calculated and adjusted by the Chinese standard population in 1982 as well as the Segi's world standard population. RESULTS: There were 12 091 new diagnosed cancer and 8040 death cases registered in Henan province in 2009. The rate of pathological diagnosis was 68.2% (8246/12 901) and only 1.75% (2116/12 901) had death certificates. The ratio of mortality and incidence was 0.66 (8040/12 091). The incidence rate was 199.47/100 000 (12 091/6 061 564) in total, and it was 216.36/100 000(6718/3 104 991) in males and 181.73/100 000(5373/2 956 573) among females. The standardized incidence by Chinese population was 126.50/100 000 and it was 166.08/100 000 by world's population. The cumulative rate was 19.95% between 0 and 74 years old. The incidence was the highest in Linzhou city, whose standardized incidence was 156.87/100 000 by Chinese population and the incidence was the lowest in Shenqiu city, whose standardized incidence was 104.82/100 000 by Chinese population. The morphology verified cases accounted for 68.2% (8246/12 091), death certification cases only accounted for 1.75% (2116/12 091), and mortality to incidence ratio was 0.66 (8040/12 091). The crude incidence in cancer registration areas of Henan province was 199.47/10 000 (12 091/6 061 564), 216.36/10 000(6718/3 104 991) for males, 181.73/10 000 (5373/2 956 573) for females, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and by world standard population were 126.50/10 000 and 166.08/10 000 with cumulative incidence rate (0-74 age years old) of 19.95%. The crude mortality in cancer registration areas of Henan province was 132.64/100 000 (8040/6 061 564), separately 160.58/100 000 (4986/3 104 991) for males and 103.30/10 000 (3054/2 956 573) for females. The age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and by world's standard population were 78.41/10 000 and 107.49/10 000. The cumulative mortality rate (0-74 age years old) was 12.18%. The mortality rate was the highest in Linzhou city, whose standardized rate was 93.35/100 000 by Chinese population, and the lowest mortality rate was in Yuzhou city, whose standardized rate was 67.95/100 000. The most common cancers were lung cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer, rectum cancer, brain nervous system cancer, colon cancer, cervical cancer and uterus cancer, all of which accounted for 82.23% (9943/12 091) of the registered cancers.Lung cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer, rectum cancer, brain nervous system cancer, pancreas cancer, colon cancer and gallbladder carcinoma were the major causes for the death, accounting for 86.30% (6938/8040) of all cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: Both incidence and mortality of cancer in Henan province were lower than the level in China, prevention and control should be implemented based on practical situation.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze and predict the incidence trends and burden of pancreatic cancer from 2008 to 2015. METHODS: Registration data on pancreatic cancer of cancer registration in 1998 - 2007, were retrieved and utilized for analyzing the annual incidence of pancreatic cancer. Age-standardized rate by Chinese population (ASR) was calculated, using the direct method. JoinPoint software was applied for trend analysis. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Prediction Package was used to estimate age, period and cohort effects as well as to predict the incidence rates. RESULTS: From 1998 to 2007, the annual incidence for men and women in urban areas showed an increase of 1.86% and 2.1% per year, but the increasing trend on the age-standardized rate was not obvious in both men and women. However, the incidence rates for men and women in rural areas increased by 7.54% and 7.83% and the age-standardized rates increased by 4.82% and 5.48% per year. RESULTS: from the projection model showed that the trends were mainly caused by age, period and cohort effects. Based on the analysis, up to 2015, the annual new cases of pancreatic cancer would be 103 428 (60 500 for males and 42 928 for females), with 15 277 cases more than that of 2008. CONCLUSION: There appeared an increasing trend of pancreatic cancer incidence which was more significant in the rural areas than the slowly increasing trend in the urban areas. The increasing trend of pancreatic cancer would be slow until the year 2015. However, in the short term pancreatic cancer is still a major cancer.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal trends in the mortality rate of gastric cancer during the period of 1988 and 2010, and to predict the gastric cancer mortality between 2016 - 2020. METHODS: The data of gastric cancer mortality in Linzhou city between 1988 and 2010 was extracted from the cancer registry, including a total of 11 714 cases, covering 22 447 073 person-years. The mortality rate of gastric cancer of each 5-year period was calculated by sub-site and gender. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated using the Chinese standard population in 1982. Intrinsic estimator (IE) model was used to fit the mortality trend by sub-site and gender, and to predict the mortality of gastric cancer in Linzhou city between 2016 and 2020. RESULTS: From 1988 to 2010, the gastric cancer mortality in Linzhou city was 52.18/100 000 (11 714/22 447 073) with the ASR at 49.23/100 000; the mortality in male was 67.02/100 000 (7678/11 455 512) with ASR at 68.68/100 000 while the mortality in female was 36.72/100 000 (4036/10 991 561) with ASR at 32.12/100 000. The mortality of cardia carcinoma was 27.87/100 000 (6257/22 447 073) with the ASR at 26.37/100 000; while the mortality of non-cardia carcinoma was 24.31/100 000 (5457/22 447 073) with the ASR at 22.86/100 000. The ASR of gastric cancer during 1988 - 1990 was 63.37/100 000 (1653 cases) and decreased by 28.34%, to 45.41/100 000 (2622 cases) during 2006 - 2010. The IE model showed that the birth cohort effect decreased greatly. The mortality risk of cardia carcinoma in population born after 1950s, decreased significantly; and the mortality risk of non-cardia carcinoma in population born in 20 century continually decreased. The death of gastric cancer among the population over 30 years old was predicted to be 3626 cases, increasing by 40.60% compared with the number between 2006 and 2010 (2579 cases). Among them, the mortality of cardia carcinoma increased by 51.89% (predicted number between 2016 and 2020 was 2456 cases, and 1617 cases between 2006 and 2010), and the mortality of non-cardia carcinoma increased by 21.62% (predicted number between 2016 and 2020 was 1170 cases, and 962 cases between 2006 and 2010). CONCLUSION: The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Linzhou city showed a decreasing trend during the period of 1988-2010, being mainly attributed to the cohort effect. However, the mortality will still increase in the future, between 2016 and 2020.

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In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of social- economic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends in mortality of esophageal cancer and explore the effects of age, period and cohort on esophageal cancer mortality rate in Linzhou city in 1986 - 2010, and predict the mortality of esophageal cancer in 2016 - 2020. METHODS: All of the esophageal cancer-attributed deaths in 1986 - 2010 were drawn from the database in Center of Cancer and Vita Statistics in Henan Province. The numbers of the death cases and population were tabulated into 5-year age groups and 5-year period groups for each sex and linked each other. The age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization to the Chinese population structure in 1982. Intrinsic estimator model (IE model)was used to perform the age-period-cohort analysis and estimate the corresponding parameters. Age effect, period effect and cohort effect on esophageal cancer mortality rate was plotted separately. The mortality of esophageal cancer during 2016 - 2020 was predicted according to the parameters by that model. RESULTS: A total of 15432 cases died from esophageal cancer in Linzhou city in1986 - 2010. The overall crude mortality rate was 63.89 per 100, 000. Among men, the age-adjusted mortality rate was 109.66 per 100, 000 during 1986-1990 and decreased to 60.59 per 100, 000 during 2006 - 2010. For women, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 74.72 per 100, 000 to 39.05 per 100, 000 at the same two calendar periods. The IE model showed that age effect was remarkable, the period effect was stable and the cohort effect decreased greatly. The predicted mortality of over 30-years old population during 2016 - 2020 is 1501 for men and 1083 for women. Compared with 2006 - 2010 period the mortality will be decreased by 6.71% and 11.08%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city shows a decreasing trend during the period of 1986 - 2010. This trend is mainly attributed to the cohort effect. The predicted mortality in the future will decrease continually.

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