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OBJECTIVE: To describe the 6-year probability of survival for older adults after their first hospitalization for heart failure. SETTING: National Medicare hospital claims records for 1984 through 1986 and Medicare enrollment records from 1986 through 1992. DESIGN: We identified a national cohort of 170 239 (9% black patients) Medicare patients, 67 years or older, with no evidence of heart failure in 1984 or 1985, who were hospitalized and discharged for the first time in 1986 with a principal diagnosis of heart failure. For groups defined by race, sex, age, Medicaid eligibility, and comorbid conditions, we compared the probability of survival with Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Only 19% of black men, 16% of white men, 25% of black women, and 23% of white women survived 6 years. One third died within the first year. Men had lower median survival and 38% greater risk of mortality than did women (P<.05). White men had 10% greater risk of mortality than did black men (P<.05). Medicaid eligibility (white adults only) and diabetes were associated with increased mortality (P<.05). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis for older adults with heart failure underscores the importance of prevention strategies and early detection and treatment modalities that can prevent, improve, or reverse myocardial dysfunction, particularly for the growing number of adults who are at increased risk for developing heart failure because of hypertension, diabetes, or myocardial infarction.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the associations between place of residence and sex-specific prevalence rates of radiographic hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: We used data from the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I), 1971-1975, to calculate and compare sex-specific prevalence rates for radiographic hip and knee OA in urban and rural areas; standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) and non-SMSAs; other urban-rural subtypes that we defined; and major geographic regions of the United States. We used logistic regression to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios for the associations between place of residence and radiographic hip and knee OA. RESULTS: We found no significant differences in the prevalence rates of hip or knee OA by place of residence for either men or women. After adjusting for age, race, and body mass index, we found a nonsignificant 40-50% increase in the odds of radiographic hip OA among men living in rural areas and non-SMSAs; no such increase was seen among women. No increased odds of knee OA were noted for subjects of either sex living in rural areas or non-SMSAs. CONCLUSION: In the NHANES I population, rural and non-SMSAs residence may be modestly associated with radiographic hip OA for men. Place of residence does not appear to be associated with radiographic hip OA among women or with radiographic knee OA in either sex.

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OBJECTIVES: Heart failure is a major health care burden among older adults, but information on recent trends has not been available. We compare rates, sociodemographic characteristics, and discharge outcomes of the initial hospitalization for heart failure in the Medicare populations of 1986 and 1993. DESIGN: Information reported on the Medicare hospital claims record during initial hospitalization for heart failure was compared for patients aged 65 and older hospitalized in 1986 (N = 631,306) and those aged 65 and older hospitalized in 1993 (N = 803,506). RESULTS: Age-standardized hospitalization rates (per 1000 person-years) for any diagnosis of heart failure were higher in 1993 than in 1986 (white: 24.6 vs 22.4, black: 26.1 vs 22.4, respectively). Age-specific results suggested an earlier onset of heart failure in black adults. In 1993, compared with 1986, higher proportions of heart failure patients were discharged to another care facility (white: 23.9% vs 16.8%, black: 17.6% vs 10.5%, respectively) or to health service care at home (white: 11.3% vs 6.0%, black: 12.4% vs 6.5%, respectively). In contrast, in-hospital mortality was lower in 1993 than in 1986 (white: 10.4% vs 13.3%, black: 8.9% vs 11.1%, respectively). CONCLUSION: The increased numbers of hospitalizations for heart failure and the likelihood that these patients will require advanced nursing care after discharge have important implications for future national health care expenditures and resources.

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OBJECTIVE: We present national and state estimates for 1990 and projections for the year 2020 of the prevalence of self-reported arthritis and other rheumatic diseases and related activity limitations. We further suggest a research and policy agenda to address this important and growing public health problem. METHODS: Estimates and projections were derived from household interviews conducted for the 1989-1991 National Health Interview Survey, and were applied to United States census population estimates for 1990 and projections for 2020. RESULTS: The prevalence rate of self-reported arthritis and other rheumatic conditions in the United States is projected to increase from 15.0% (37.9 million) of the 1990 population to 18.2% (59.4 million) of the estimated 2020 population. Activity limitation attributed to these conditions is projected to increase from 2.8% (7.0 million) of the 1990 population to 3.6% (11.6 million) of the 2020 population. Prevalence rates were higher for older persons, women, residents of nonmetropolitan areas, and those with less education or lower income. CONCLUSIONS: Arthritis and other rheumatic conditions are frequent and disabling public health problems now, and are projected to become even more so by 2020. Implementing the suggested research and public health agenda could reduce the occurrence and impact of these conditions.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The factors that contribute to the Stroke Belt--a concentration of high stroke mortality rates in the southeastern United States--remain unidentified. Previous hypotheses that focused on physical properties of the area have not been confirmed. This study describes changes in the locations of areas with the highest rates of stroke mortality and the implications for new hypotheses regarding the Stroke Belt. METHODS: We calculated annual, age-adjusted stroke mortality rates for black women, black men, white women, and white men for the years 1962 to 1988 using a three-piece log-linear regression model. Maps were produced with the state economic area (SEA) as the unit of analysis. The baseline Stroke Belt was defined as the area with the largest concentration of high-quintile SEAs in 1962. RESULTS: The concentration of high-rate SEAs tended to shift away from the Piedmont region of the Southeast and toward the Mississippi River valley. For example, whereas among black women in 1962, 72% of SEAs in the baseline Stroke Belt were in the highest quintile, by 1988 this percentage had dropped to 48%. Similar patterns were observed for the other race/sex groups. CONCLUSIONS: Temporal changes in the location of areas with the highest stroke mortality rates suggest that new hypotheses for understanding the geographic pattern of stroke mortality should consider temporal trends in a variety of medical, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors.

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The 1991-1992 Directors of Medical Student Education in Psychiatry were surveyed to investigate the exposure of undergraduate medical students in the United States to child and adolescent psychiatry during the psychiatry clinical clerkship. The response rate was 100% (N = 122). Forty-four (36.1%) medical schools provided no exposure to child and adolescent psychiatry patients during the psychiatry clerkship. Sixty-one (50%) medical schools provided inpatient experience for their students in child and adolescent psychiatry, although only 24.2% of students in the clerkships were assigned to these units. Seventeen (13.9%) medical schools provided outpatient or consultation-liaison experience in child and adolescent psychiatry for students. These results demonstrate the lack of exposure to child and adolescent psychiatry for the majority of medical students during psychiatry clerkships. The medical school curriculum has a significant effect on specialty selection. The introduction of an undergraduate medical education curriculum that includes child and adolescent psychiatry may address the severe shortage of child and adolescent psychiatrists to provide for patient care, academic, and research needs. Proposals are made to facilitate implementation of child and adolescent psychiatry into the undergraduate medical curriculum.

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The 1985 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Questionnaire provides information regarding the status of 4 of the 11 physical fitness and exercise objectives for 1990. A specially developed scoring algorithm was used to determine the percentage of persons participating in appropriate physical activity (that is, "exercise which involves large muscle groups in dynamic movement for periods of 20 minutes or longer, 3 or more days per week, and which is performed at an intensity of 60 percent or greater of an individual's cardiorespiratory capacity" and three other categories: regular activity, but not appropriate physical activity; irregular activity; and those who were sedentary. Results revealed that the young and persons of relatively high socioeconomic status are more likely to perform appropriate physical activity in their leisure time. When rigid criteria were used, only 5.1 percent of those surveyed knew the appropriate duration, frequency, and intensity of physical activity needed to strengthen the heart and lungs. It was not possible to determine if exercise prevalence has increased in recent years; however, it will be possible to detect trends in the future when this survey is repeated in 1990.

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An outbreak of Giardia lamblia gastroenteritis occurred in Reno, Nevada, in 1982, during which 324 laboratory-confirmed infections were reported. During the outbreak, Reno was supplied in part by surface water that was chemically coagulated, settled, and chlorinated, but was not filtered. Giardia cysts were recovered from the water supply, and a beaver infected with Giardia was found in one of the reservoirs. A case-control study indicated that, during the outbreak but not afterwards, persons with giardiasis drank more municipal water than did controls. Corrective measures, which included removing the infected beaver and increasing the chlorine concentration, were followed by a rapid decrease in reports of giardiasis.

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A standardized microtest plate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was developed using the microsomal fraction of adult worms of Schistosoma mansoni (MAMA) as antigen. The standard reference serum pool was prepared from acutely and chronically infected rhesus monkeys and was shown to be appropriate as a standard for measuring the levels of reactivity of the unknowns. The standard serum pool was arbitrarily designated as having 100 activity units per microliter. The levels of reactivity of the unknowns were expressed as activity units per microliter. Serum specimens were obtained from 190 patients infected with S. mansoni in the Caribbean, South America, and Africa. Serum was obtained from small numbers of patients infected with S. haematobium, S. japonicum, or S. mekongi. Controls were 136 patients with other helminthic infections, 142 patients with protozoal or other diseases with liver involvement, and 81 healthy serum donors. The J index (or predictability) of the assay was calculated to determine the significant level of reactivity. The assay has a predictability of 95% for both patients with S. mansoni infections and those with other infections. The sensitivity of the assay for S. mansoni infections was 96%, and the specificity (in terms of cross-reactions with infections with other parasite genera or with other liver diseases) was 99%. The heterologous Schistosoma species showed a markedly lower level of reactivity, with an overall sensitivity of 55%. This is in accord with the species-specificity previously recognized in MAMA, and emphasizes the need for standard reference pools of human sera prepared from patients infected with single species of each of the Schistosoma. Use of these pools in assays with antigens of the respective schistosome species would allow optimum serologic evaluation.

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During the seven-year period 1974-1980, 93,516 Shigella isolates from humans were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, through a nationwide surveillance system. Over the past 30 years, the reported incidence of shigellosis has been declining in contrast to that reported for salmonellosis. Shigella sonnei (group D) now accounts for approximately 70% of the Shigella isolates reported, since most of the decline has been due to the increasingly less frequent infections caused by Shigella flexneri (group B); Shigella dysenteriae infections are now uncommon. The highest reported rates of shigellosis are from the western states and among children from one to five years of age. Among the total population of the United States, the ratio of S. flexneri to S. sonnei isolates was 0.28 among persons from one to 19 years of age and 0.45 among persons greater than or equal to 20 years of age; among American Indians the proportion of S. flexneri was much greater, the corresponding ratios being 2.1 and 2.9, respectively; in both groups the ratios for children younger than one year of age resembled those obtaining for adults. Age-related acquisition of immunity to S. sonnei may explain these observations.

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During a 15-month study, 8097 fecal specimens submitted to clinical microbiology laboratories at eight hospitals in different parts of the United States were examined. Campylobacter jejuni was isolated from 4.6%, Salmonella from 2.3%, and Shigella from 1.0%. Isolation rates for each pathogen were highest from stool specimens that were watery, bloody, or contained leukocytes. The peak isolation rate for C. jejuni was in persons ages 10 to 29 years; for Salmonella, in children younger than age 10 years; and for Shigella, in children ages 5 to 9 years. The clinical features of the three infections were nearly identical. In contrast, abdominal pain, bloody diarrhea, fever, tenesmus, and abnormal sigmoidoscopy findings were present significantly more often in patients infected with C. jejuni than in a control group of patients with diarrhea. Of patients with leukocytes in their stools and a history of fever, 45.9% were infected with one of the three pathogens. Use of laboratory and clinical findings defined groups with high or low risk of these three infections but could not accurately predict isolation. Fecal cultures had the highest yields when obtained from patients within 7 days from the onset of symptoms.

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A biphasic outbreaks of salmonellosis affected customers and employees of a restaurant in Maine, in October and November, 1979. Salmonella typhimurium was isolated from 27 customers and nine employees. Ten other individuals were ill but did not have specimens taken for culture, and there were four secondary cases including one affecting a laboratory technician. Fourteen individuals (28%) were hospitalized for up to 45 days, and a total of 416 days of work were lost as a result of the outbreak. Two different food items served at the restaurant at separate times were identified as vehicles. In the first part of the outbreak, 37 persons who consumed either egg-based foods (p = 0.003) or salad (p = 0.006) became ill. In the second phase of the outbreak, in late October and November, nine cases were associated with consumption of inadequately refrigerated salad (p = 0.008), but not with egg-based foods. An infected symptomatic food handler prepared the incriminated salad for some members of this latter group. Use of antacids was also associated with illness (p = 0.03). The occurrence of illness over a seven-week period, the implication of several vehicles, and the demonstration of secondary cases suggest that "sporadic" cases of salmonellosis in the community may be linked.

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Fourteen sporadic cases of non-O group 1 Vibrio cholerae gastroenteritis were identified through isolates submitted to the Centers for Disease Control in 1979. All the ill persons had diarrhea, 13 had abdominal cramps, 10 had fever, and three had vomiting; in four cases the patients had bloody diarrhea. Five patients had traveled outside the United States before they became ill. All nine domestically acquired cases were in patients who had eaten raw oysters within 72 hours of onset of illness; in a matched case-control study, illness in these patients was strongly associated with eating raw seafood (p less than 0.0001). Only one isolate produced heat-labile toxin by a Y-1 adrenal cell assay. All isolates were susceptible to tetracycline, chloramphenicol, kanamycin, and cephalothin.

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To study temporal changes in the antibiotic resistance of Salmonella in the United States, a study design similar to that of a 1967 study was used to determine the antibiotic sensitivity of 754 human nontyphoid Salmonella isolates sent to the Center for Disease Control, Atlanta, Georgia, in 1975. The frequency of resistance to one or more of the same nine antibiotics used in both studies increased significantly during the eight years in Salmonella typhimurium (40%-59%; P = 0.004), other serotypes (14%-23%; P = 0.001), and all serotypes combined (21%-31%; P < 0.001). The increase in frequency of resistance was significant for streptomycin (P = 0.022), sulfonamides (P < 0.001), ampicillin (P < 0.001), and kanamycin (P < 0.001). No chloramphenicol-resistant isolates were found in the 1967 study, whereas six isolates (0.8%) were resistant in 1975. The frequency of strains resistant to six or more antibiotics increased greatly (0.8%-5.0%; P < 0.001). These data document a continuing increase in antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella isolates.

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There is little information on the risk of acquiring hepatitis A from drinking sewage-contaminated water. In a large outbreak of gastrointestinal illness at Crater Lake National Park, Oregon, a US national park, in June-July, 1975, approximately 100,000 persons were exposed to sewage-contaminated water. State health departments reported three cases of Crater Lake-associated hepatitis A for a rate of 12/100,000 per year, comparable to the reported US incidence of non-B hepatitis 10/100,000 per year. Questionnaire survey of 3997 overnight park visitors revealed five cases of hepatitis A, occurring in 2206 persons who drank water but did not receive immune serum globulin (ISG) within two weeks of exposure, an attack rate of 0.23%. The association between drinking park water and subsequently developing hepatitis was not statistically significant. No cases of hepatitis occurred in 320 park staff and family members, repeatedly exposed to contaminated water. The authors do not recommend routine use of prophylactic ISG for similar outbreaks of gastroenteritis caused by sewage-contaminated water but suggest close surveillance of the exposed group, and careful consideration of risk factors and costs.

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An outbreak of diarrheal illness caused by Shigella flexneri 1b and associated with 11 deaths occurred in the Marshall Islands during June and July 1977. A house-to-house survey on Majuro indicated an attack rate of 6.2%. Neither the survey nor a case-control study uncovered a common source of exposure on Majuro, and it is believed that transmission was mainly person-to-person. Socioeconomic factors, type of water supply, distance to municipal water supply, and type of sanitary facility could not be related to the occurrence of illness, but a poor sanitary rating was associated with increased rate of household transmission. Absence of stool culturing for bacteria and false-positive identifications of amebae in stool specimens led to the outbreak's being attributed to Entamoeba histolytica. Subsequent parasitologic examinations and serologic studies indicated that E. histolytica played no role in the outbreak, and suggested that fecal leukocytes were being mistaken for amebae. Improved bacteriologic capabilities will be important in improving the approach to diarrheal illness in the Marshall Islands.

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During a severe drought Port-au-Prince, Haiti, lost hydroelectric power for 10 weeks. This led to water shortages in areas of the city dependent on water supplied from electrically driven pumps. In a study of the impact of water restriction on disease, 400 families were randomly selected from two urban areas differentially affected by the water shortage. Disease in children was found to be related to quantity of water used, socioeconomic status, employment of head of household, and family size. The methods used in this study are recommended for the investigation of the relationship between water quantity and health.

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