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This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients. Preliminary results show that global trade improves the food and nutrition security of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Trade also promotes a healthier and more balanced diet, as countries have access to an increased variety of food. The effect of trade in enhancing nutrition security, with an adequate supply of macro and micronutrients, is universal across nutrients and countries. As researchers call for a holistic and multifactorial approach to food security and climate change (Hammond and Dubé 2012 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 12 356-12 363. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0913003109)), the paper is one of the first to develop an integrated framework that consists of socio-economic, geopolitical, nutrition, environmental and agri-food systems to tackle these global challenges. Given the ongoing events of Brexit, the US-China trade war and the global COVID-19 pandemic, the paper will provide valuable insights on the role of trade in improving the food and nutrition security across countries.
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Resource distribution networks are the infrastructure facilitating the flow of resources in both biotic and abiotic systems. Both theoretical and empirical arguments have proposed that physical systems self-organise to maximise power production, but how this trajectory is related to network development, especially regarding the heterogeneity of resource distribution in explicitly spatial networks, is less understood. Quantifying the heterogeneity of resource distribution is necessary for understanding how phenomena such as economic inequality or energetic niches emerge across socio-ecological and environmental systems. Although qualitative discussions have been put forward on this topic, to date there has not been a quantitative analysis of the relationship between network development, maximum power, and inequality. This paper introduces a theoretical framework and applies it to simulate the power consumption and inequality in generalised, spatially explicit resource distribution networks. The networks illustrate how increasing resource flows amplify inequality in power consumption at network end points, due to the spatial heterogeneity of the distribution architecture. As increasing resource flows and the development of hierarchical branching can both be strategies for increasing power consumption, this raises important questions about the different outcomes of heterogeneous distribution in natural versus human-engineered networks, and how to prioritise equity of distribution in the latter.
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Ecosistema , Modelos Estadísticos , Asignación de Recursos/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores Socioeconómicos , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , Política , Factores SociológicosRESUMEN
A debt-based economy requires the accumulation of more and more debt to finance economic growth, while future economic growth is needed to repay the debt, and so the cycle continues. Despite global debt reaching unprecedented levels, little research has been done to understand the impacts of debt dynamics on environmental sustainability. Here, we explore the environmental impacts of the debt-growth cycle in Indonesia, the world's largest debt-based producer of palm oil. Our empirical Agent-Based Model analyses the future effects (2018-2050) of power (im)balance scenarios between debt-driven economic forces (i.e. banks, firms), and conservation forces, on two ecosystem services (food production, climate regulation) and biodiversity. The model shows the trade-offs and synergies among these indicators for Business As Usual as compared to alternative scenarios. Results show that debt-driven economic forces can partially support environmental conservation, provided the state's role in protecting the environment is reinforced. Our analysis provides a lesson for developing countries that are highly dependent on debt-based production systems: sustainable development pathways can be achievable in the short and medium terms; however, reaching long-term sustainability requires reduced dependency on external financial powers, as well as further government intervention to protect the environment from the rough edges of the market economy.
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Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ecosistema , Biodiversidad , Indonesia , Aceite de PalmaRESUMEN
This paper develops an empirical agent-based model to assess the impacts of Brexit on Scottish cattle farms. We first identify several trends and processes among Scottish cattle farms that were ongoing before Brexit: the lack of succession, the rise of leisure farming, the trend to diversify and industrialise, and, finally, the phenomenon of the "disappearing middle", characterised by the decline of medium-sized farms and the polarization of farm sizes. We then study the potential impact of Brexit amid the local context and those ongoing social processes. We find that the impact of Brexit is indeed subject to pre-Brexit conditions. For example, whether industrialization is present locally can significantly alter the impact of Brexit. The impact of Brexit also varies by location: we find a clear divide between constituencies in the north (highland and islands), the middle (the central belt) and the south. Finally, we argue that policy analysis of Brexit should consider the heterogeneous social context and the complex social processes under which Brexit occurs. Rather than fitting the world into simple system models and ignoring the evidence when it does not fit, we need to develop policy analysis frameworks that can incorporate real world complexities, so that we can assess the impacts of major events and policy changes in a more meaningful way.
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Agricultura/legislación & jurisprudencia , Agricultura/estadística & datos numéricos , Agricultura/tendencias , Unión Europea , Formulación de Políticas , Medio Social , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Agricultura/organización & administración , Animales , Bovinos , Unión Europea/organización & administración , Agricultores/legislación & jurisprudencia , Agricultores/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Propiedad/organización & administración , Propiedad/estadística & datos numéricos , Propiedad/tendencias , Sistemas Políticos/estadística & datos numéricos , Dinámica Poblacional , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Rural/tendencias , Escocia/epidemiología , Reino Unido/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201141.].
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A debt-based economy cannot survive without economic growth. However, if private debt consistently grows faster than GDP, the consequences are financial crises and the current unprecedented level of global debt. This policy dilemma is aggravated by the lack of analyses factoring the impact of debt-growth cycles on the environment. What is really the relationship between debt and natural resource sustainability, and what is the role of debt in decoupling economic growth from natural resource availability? Here we present a conceptual Agent-Based Model (ABM) that integrates an environmental system into an ABM representation of Steve Keen's debt-based economic models. Our model explores the extent to which debt-driven processes, within debt-based economies, enhance the decoupling between economic growth and the availability of natural resources. Interestingly, environmental and economic collapse in our model are not caused by debt growth, or the debt-based nature of the economic system itself (i.e. the 'what'), but rather, these are due to the inappropriate use of debt by private actors (i.e. the 'how'). Firms inappropriately use bank credits for speculative goals-rather than production-oriented ones-and for exponentially increasing rates of technological development. This context creates temporal mismatches between natural resource growth and firms' resource extraction rates, as well as between economic growth and the capacity of the government to effectively implement natural resource conservation policies. This paper discusses the extent to which economic growth and the availability of natural resources can be re-coupled through a more sustainable use of debt, for instance by shifting mainstream banking forces to partially support environmental conservation as well as economic growth.