RESUMEN
This paper investigates the validity of uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) which establishes a proportional relationship between interest rate and expected nominal exchange rate differentials. This paper takes a different perspective by using a gravity panel as the methodological approach and modeling the interest rate differential as a function of the expected nominal exchange rate change. Thus, we use all possible nominal exchange rates in our sample to study the validity of the UIRP. We provide evidence in favor of UIRP which holds for a sample of high-income economies; however, this hypothesis is rejected for medium-income countries.
RESUMEN
When prediction intervals are constructed using unobserved component models (UCM), problems can arise due to the possible existence of components that may or may not be conditionally heteroscedastic. Accurate coverage depends on correctly identifying the source of the heteroscedasticity. Different proposals for testing heteroscedasticity have been applied to UCM; however, in most cases, these procedures are unable to identify the heteroscedastic component correctly. The main issue is that test statistics are affected by the presence of serial correlation, causing the distribution of the statistic under conditional homoscedasticity to remain unknown. We propose a nonparametric statistic for testing heteroscedasticity based on the well-known Wilcoxon's rank statistic. We study the asymptotic validation of the statistic and examine bootstrap procedures for approximating its finite sample distribution. Simulation results show an improvement in the size of the homoscedasticity tests and a power that is clearly comparable with the best alternative in the literature. We also apply the test on real inflation data. Looking for the presence of a conditionally heteroscedastic effect on the error terms, we arrive at conclusions that almost all cases are different than those given by the alternative test statistics presented in the literature.
RESUMEN
RESUMEN Este trabajo se ha centrado en identificar y describir los principales factores sociales que explican el no retiro de alimentos del Programa de Alimentación Complementaria de la Persona mayor (PACAM), según los datos entregados por la encuesta CASEN 2015, dimensión salud. Se usó un modelo lineal no probabilístico, cuyo regresor se refiere a un modelo logit, de respuesta dicotómica, con dos alternativas; la persona mayor no retira los alimentos, la persona mayor si retira los alimentos, del Programa PACAM. El modelo clasifica correctamente el 65,1% de los casos, con sensibilidad de 59,6% y especificidad de 70,3%. Los resultados indicaron que el no retiro de alimentos es preferentemente femenino y se explicó principalmente por el rol de jefe de hogar de la persona mayor, su escasa participación social, habitar en zonas urbanas y cerca de un centro de salud, adicionalmente, la persona mayor presenta problemas de salud, una condición permanente o de larga duración. En conclusión, los resultados indican que las personas mayores que no retiran los alimentos del Programa PACAM, presentan un alto nivel de vulnerabilidad y el tener acceso a dicho Programa impactaría en mejorar su calidad de vida, satisfaciendo sus necesidades nutricionales acorde a su edad.
ABSTRACT We focused on identifying and describing the main factors explaining non-withdrawal of food provided by the Complementary Food for Elderly People Program in Chile (PACAM). We used the information contained in the health section of the 2015 Casen survey. Methodologically, we used a binomial probabilistic logit model whose alternatives were whether an elderly person withdraws food (YES/NO) provided by the PACAM program. The model correctly classified 65.1% of cases with 59.6% sensitivity and 70.3% specificity. Results indicated that non-withdrawal occurs mainly by females and related to being the head of household, low social participation, living in urban areas, living near a health center, and the existence a long-term or permanent health problem. In conclusion, main findings show that elderly people who do not withdraw food provided by the PACAM program presented a high level of vulnerability. Therefore, access to the PACAM program is important to improve the quality of life by satisfying nutrition needs of elderly people.