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IntroductionHospitalisations relating to acute respiratory deteriorations (ARD) in Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) have poor outcomes. Factors predicting adverse outcomes are not fully understood and data addressing the use of illness severity scores in prognostication are limited. ObjectiveTo validate the use of CURB-65 and NEWS-2 severity scores to predict mortality following ARD-ILD hospitalisation. MethodsA dual-centre prospective observational cohort study of all adults ([≥]18y) hospitalised with ARD-ILD in Bristol, UK (n=179). Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP), CURB-65 and NEWS-2 scores were calculated for each eligible admission. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to quantify the strength of discrimination for NEWS-2 and CURB-65 scores. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the relationship between baseline severity scores and mortality. ResultsGAP showed some merit at predicting 30-day mortality (AUC=0.64, P=0.015); whereas CURB-65 showed modest predictive value for in-hospital (AUC=0.72, P<0.001) and 90-day mortality (AUC=0.67, P<0.001). NEWS-2 showed higher predictive value for in-hospital (AUC=0.80, P<0.001) and 90-day mortality (AUC=0.75, P<0.001), with an optimal derived cut-off [≥]6.5 found to be sensitive and specific for predicting in-hospital (83% and 63%) and 90-day (73% and 72%) mortality. In exploratory analyses, GAP score addition improved the predictive ability of NEWS-2 against 30-day mortality and CURB-65 across all time-periods. ConclusionNEWS-2 has good discriminatory value for predicting in-hospital mortality and moderate discriminatory value for predicting 90-day mortality. The optimal NEWS-2 cut-off value determined was the same as in a previous retrospective cohort, confirming the NEWS-2 score shows promise in predicting mortality following ARD-ILD hospitalisation. KEY MESSAGESO_ST_ABSWhat is the key question?C_ST_ABS- Can NEWS-2 and CURB-65 be used to predict inpatient mortality in a cohort of patients with acute respiratory deterioration on a background of known interstitial lung disease? What is the bottom line?- The NEWS-2 score shows high sensitivity and specificity in predicting both 90-day and in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised with ARD-ILD - Whilst the CURB-65 score showed high sensitivity for predicting mortality, there was a low specificity, and did not add value to the predictive ability of the NEWS-2 score. Why read on?- This analysis included 179 patients from two study sites and provides, for the first time, prospective evidence for utilising NEWS-2 and CURB-65 as tools to predict in-hospital and post hospitalisation morbidity.
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BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed the respiratory isolation capacity in hospitals; many wards lacking high-frequency air changes have been repurposed for managing patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 requiring either standard or intensive care. Hospital-acquired COVID-19 is a recognised problem amongst both patients and staff, with growing evidence for the relevance of airborne transmission. This study examined the effect of air filtration and ultra-violet (UV) light sterilisation on detectable airborne SARS-CoV-2 and other microbial bioaerosols. MethodsWe conducted a crossover study of portable air filtration and sterilisation devices in a repurposed surge COVID ward and surge ICU. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) cyclonic aerosol samplers and PCR assays were used to detect the presence of airborne SARS-CoV-2 and other microbial bioaerosol with and without air/UV filtration. ResultsAirborne SARS-CoV-2 was detected in the ward on all five days before activation of air/UV filtration, but on none of the five days when the air/UV filter was operational; SARS-CoV-2 was again detected on four out of five days when the filter was off. Airborne SARS-CoV-2 was infrequently detected in the ICU. Filtration significantly reduced the burden of other microbial bioaerosols in both the ward (48 pathogens detected before filtration, two after, p=0.05) and the ICU (45 pathogens detected before filtration, five after p=0.05). ConclusionsThese data demonstrate the feasibility of removing SARS-CoV-2 from the air of repurposed surge wards and suggest that air filtration devices may help reduce the risk of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2. FundingWellcome Trust, MRC, NIHR
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@#Data collected through routine syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness in the Micronesian United States-affiliated Pacific Islands highlighted out-of-season influenza outbreaks in the spring of 2019. This report describes the data collected through the World Health Organization’s Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Guam, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Compared with historical data, more cases of influenza-like illness were observed in all four islands described here, with the highest number reported in Guam in week 9, CNMI and FSM in week 15, and RMI in week 19. The outbreaks predominantly affected those aged <20 years, with evidence from CNMI and RMI suggesting higher attack rates among those who were unvaccinated. Cases confirmed by laboratory testing suggested that influenza B was predominant, with 83% (99/120) of subtyped specimens classified as influenza B/Victoria during January–May 2019. These outbreaks occurred after the usual influenza season and were consistent with transmission patterns in Eastern Asia rather than those in Oceania or the United States of America, the areas typically associated with the United States-affiliated Pacific Islands due to their geographical proximity to Oceania and political affiliation with the United States of America. A plausible epidemiological route of introduction may be the high levels of international tourism from Eastern Asian countries recorded during these periods of increased influenza B/Victoria circulation. This report demonstrates the value of year-round surveillance for communicable diseases and underscores the importance of seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly among younger age groups.
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Hibernation, the use of prolonged torpor to depress metabolism, is employed by mammals to conserve resources during extended periods of extreme temperatures and/or resource limitation. Mammalian hibernators arouse to euthermy periodically during torpor for reasons that are not well understood, and these arousals may facilitate immune processes. To determine whether arousals enable host responses to pathogens, we used dual RNA-Seq and a paired sampling approach to examine gene expression in a hibernating bat, the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus). During torpor, transcript levels differed in only a few genes between uninfected wing tissue and adjacent tissue infected with Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome. Within 70-80 min after emergence from torpor, large changes in gene expression were observed due to local infection, particularly in genes involved in pro-inflammatory host responses to fungal pathogens, but also in many genes involved in immune responses and metabolism. These results support the hypothesis that torpor is a period of relative immune dormancy and arousals allow for local immune responses in infected tissues during hibernation. Host-pathogen interactions were also found to regulate gene expression in the pathogen differently depending on the torpor state of the host. Hibernating species must balance the benefits of energy and water conservation achieved during torpor with the costs of decreased immune competence. Interbout arousals allow hibernators to optimize these, and other, trade-offs during prolonged hibernation by enabling host responses to pathogens within brief, periodic episodes of euthermy.
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Pohnpei State’s Division of Primary Health Care implemented enhanced surveillance for early warning and detection of disease to support the 8th Micronesian Games (the Games) in July 2014. The surveillance comprised 11 point-of-care sentinel sites around Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, collecting data daily for eight syndromes using standard case definitions. Each sentinel site reported total acute care encounters, total syndrome cases and the total for each syndrome. A public health response, including epidemiological investigation and laboratory testing, followed when syndrome counts reached predetermined threshold levels. The surveillance was implemented using the web-based Suite for Automated Global Electronic bioSurveillance Open-ESSENCE (SAGES-OE) application that was customized for the Games. Data were summarized in daily situation reports (SitReps) issued to key stakeholders and posted on PacNet, a Pacific public health e-mail network. Influenza-like illness (ILI) was the most common syndrome reported (55%, n = 225). Most syndrome cases (75%) were among people from Pohnpei. Only 30 cases out of a total of 408 syndrome cases (7%) presented with acute fever and rash, despite the large and ongoing measles outbreak at the time. No new infectious disease outbreak was recorded during the Games. Peaks in diarrhoeal and ILI cases were followed up and did not result in widespread transmission. The technology was a key feature of the enhanced surveillance. The introduction of the web-based tool greatly improved the timeliness of data entry, analysis and SitRep dissemination, providing assurance to the Games organizers that communicable diseases would not adversely impact the Games.
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Objective: To assess the prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among women who board foreign fishing vessels for sex work in Kiribati. Methods: A cross-sectional study was designed to collect data on behavioural risk factors for STIs and knowledge of and attitudes towards HIV and STIs during 2007. Urine and blood samples were collected to test for HIV and select STIs. Descriptive statistics were performed for sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics, and χ2 tests were used to assess associations between potential key determinants and the presence of genital Chlamydia infection. Results: Women who boarded foreign fishing vessels for transactional sex were younger, had less education, were less likely to live with a partner and were less likely to be otherwise employed. Although no HIV infections were detected, more than half (57.5%) of the women were diagnosed with an STI. One quarter of the women tested positive for chlamydia, and 40% tested positive for mycoplasma. The presence of chlamydia was strongly associated with age at first sexual intercourse (P = 0.02) and number of sexual partners during the prior seven days (P = 0.02). Conclusion: The high rate of STIs in this population of sex workers is concerning given the potential of severe pregnancy-related and chronic health problems and the increased risk of transmission within the general population of Kiribati. We identified a specific sex worker population as a priority group for targeted public health efforts to prevent and control the spread of STIs in Kiribati.
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The Ministry of Health in Samoa, in partnership with the Pacific Community, successfully implemented enhanced surveillance for the high-profile Third United Nations Conference on Small Island Developing States held concurrently with the popular local Teuila festival during a widespread chikungunya outbreak in September 2014. Samoa’s weekly syndromic surveillance system was expanded to 12 syndromes and 10 sentinel sites from four syndromes and seven sentinel sites; sites included the national hospital, four private health clinics and three national health service clinics. Daily situation reports were produced and were disseminated through PacNet (the email alert and communication tool of the Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network) together with daily prioritized line lists of syndrome activity to facilitate rapid response and investigation by the Samoan EpiNet team. Standard operating procedures for surveillance and response were introduced, together with a sustainability plan, including a monitoring and evaluation framework, to facilitate the transition of the mass gathering surveillance improvements to routine surveillance. The enhanced surveillance performed well, providing vital disease early warning and health security assurance. A total of 2386 encounters and 708 syndrome cases were reported. Influenza-like illness was the most frequently seen syndrome (17%). No new infectious disease outbreaks were recorded. The experience emphasized: (1) the need for a long lead time to pilot the surveillance enhancements and to maximize their sustainability; (2) the importance of good communication between key stakeholders; and (3) having sufficient staff dedicated to both surveillance and response.
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Problem: The Pacific region has widely dispersed populations, limited financial and human resources and a high burden of disease. There is an urgent need to improve the availability, reliability and timeliness of useable health data. Context: The purpose of this paper is to share lessons learnt from a three-year pilot field epidemiology training programme that was designed to respond to these Pacific health challenges. The pilot programme built on and further developed an existing field epidemiology training programme for Pacific health staff. Action: The programme was delivered in country by epidemiologists working for Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network partners. The programme consisted of five courses: four one-week classroom-based courses and one field epidemiology project. Sessions were structured so that theoretical understanding was achieved through interaction and reinforced through practical hands-on group activities, case studies and other interactive practical learning methods. Outcome: As of September 2016, 258 students had commenced the programme. Twenty-six course workshops were delivered and one cohort of students had completed the full five-course programme. The programme proved popular and gained a high level of student engagement. Discussion: Face-to-face delivery, a low student-to-facilitator ratio, substantial group work and practical exercises were identified as key factors that contributed to the students developing skills and confidence. Close engagement of leaders and the need to quickly evaluate and adapt the curriculum were important lessons, and the collaboration between external partners was considered important for promoting a harmonized approach to health needs in the Pacific.
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Mass gatherings pose public health challenges to host countries, as they can cause or exacerbate disease outbreaks within the host location or elsewhere. In July 2012, the 11th Festival of Pacific Arts (FOPA), a mass gathering event involving 22 Pacific island states and territories, was hosted by Solomon Islands. An enhanced syndromic surveillance (ESS) system was implemented for the event. Throughout the capital city, Honiara, 15 sentinel sites were established and successfully took part in the ESS system, which commenced one week before the FOPA (25 June) and concluded eight days after the event (22 July). The ESS involved expanding on the existing syndromic surveillance parameters: from one to 15 sentinel sites, from four to eight syndromes, from aggregated to case-based reporting and from weekly to daily reporting. A web-based system was developed to enable data entry, data storage and data analysis. Towards the end of the ESS period, a focus group discussion and series of key informant interviews were conducted. The ESS was considered a success and played an important role in the early detection of possible outbreaks. For the period of the ESS, 1668 patients with syndrome presentations were received across the 15 sentinel sites. There were no major events of public health significance. Several lessons were learnt that are relevant to ESS in mass gathering scenarios, including the importance of having adequate lead in time for engagement and preparation to ensure appropriate policy and institutional frameworks are put in place.