RESUMEN
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 there was a drastic reduction in the number of dengue cases in Sri Lanka, with an increase towards the end of 2021. We sought to study the contribution of virological factors, human mobility, school closure and mosquito factors in affecting these changes in dengue transmission in Sri Lanka during this time. To understand the reasons for the differences in the dengue case numbers in 2020 to 2021 compared to previous years, we determined the association between the case numbers in Colombo (which has continuously reported the highest number of cases) with school closures, stringency index, changes in dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and vector densities. There was a 79.4% drop in dengue cases from 2019 to 2020 in Colombo. A significant negative correlation was seen with the number of cases and school closures (Spearman's r = -0.4732, p <0.0001) and a negative correlation, which was not significant, between the stringency index and case numbers (Spearman's r = -0.3755 p = 0.0587). There was no change in the circulating DENV serotypes with DENV2 remaining the most prevalent serotype by early 2022 (65%), similar to the frequencies observed by end of 2019. The Aedes aegypti premise and container indices showed positive but insignificant correlations with dengue case numbers (Spearman r = 0.8827, p = 0.93). Lockdown measures, especially school closures seemed to have had a significant impact on the number of dengue cases, while the vector indices had a limited effect.
RESUMEN
Dengue is a leading public health problem in Sri Lanka. All 26 districts and all age groups are affected, with high disease transmission; the estimated average annual incidence is 175/100 000 population. Harnessing the World Health Organization Global strategy for dengue prevention and control, 2012-2020, Sri Lanka has pledged in its National Strategic Framework to achieve a mortality from dengue below 0.1% and to reduce morbidity by 50% (from the average of the last 5 years) by 2020. Turning points in the country's dengue-control programme have been the restructuring and restrategizing of the core functions; this has involved establishment of a separate dengue-control unit to coordinate integrated vector management, and creation of a presidential task force. There has been great progress in disease surveillance, clinical management and vector control. Enhanced real-time surveillance for early warning allows ample preparedness for an outbreak. National guidelines with enhanced diagnostics have significantly improved clinical management of dengue, reducing the case-fatality rate to 0.2%. Proactive integrated vector management, with multisector partnership, has created a positive vector-control environment; however, sustaining this momentum is a challenge. Robust surveillance, evidence-based clinical management, sustainable vector control and effective communication are key strategies that will be implemented to achieve set targets. Improved early detection and a standardized treatment protocol with enhanced diagnostics at all medical care institutions will lead to further reduction in mortality. Making the maximum effort to minimize outbreaks through sustainable vector control in the three dimensions of risk mapping, innovation and risk modification will enable a reduction in morbidity.