RESUMEN
UNLABELLED: The UK FRAX model was evaluated retrospectively in Polish women assessed 11 years previously for fracture risk. Results were compared with fracture risk observed during follow-up. The UK model can be used to stratify risk, but caution is required in interpretation of absolute fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: In the absence of a FRAX® model for Poland, the UK FRAX tool has been widely used. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of the surrogate model in a Polish setting. METHODS: We studied a convenience sample of 501 women who had been referred for the assessment of bone mineral density and clinical risk factors 9-12 years previously. Incident fractures in the intervening period were self-reported by telephone interview. Fracture probabilities, calculated using the UK FRAX tool, were compared to the incidence of new fractures during follow-up. RESULTS: Incident fractures were reported in 106 women. Incident fractures of the major osteoporotic fractures were reported in 89 women. The observed incidence of fractures rose progressively in women according to percentile of fracture probability. Between the 10th and 90th percentiles, hip fracture probability computed with bone mineral density (BMD) differed 49-fold. The range was fivefold in the case of a major osteoporotic fracture. The observed/expected ratio for fracture was significantly greater than unity when the expected number was calculated without BMD (1.79; 95% confidence interval = 1.44-2.21) and when BMD was included in the FRAX calculation (1.94; 95% confidence interval = 1.45-2.54). CONCLUSION: The UK FRAX tool categorised fracture risk well in this Polish cohort but significantly overestimated fracture risk. The UK model can be used to stratify risk in the population, but caution is required in interpretation of absolute risk.
Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Modelos Estadísticos , Fracturas Osteoporóticas/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Anciano , Densidad Ósea , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Traumatismos del Antebrazo/epidemiología , Fracturas de Cadera/epidemiología , Humanos , Fracturas del Húmero/epidemiología , Modelos Logísticos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Polonia/epidemiología , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Fracturas de la Columna Vertebral/epidemiología , Reino UnidoAsunto(s)
Fracturas Óseas/prevención & control , Osteoartritis/diagnóstico , Osteoartritis/terapia , Osteoporosis/diagnóstico , Osteoporosis/terapia , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Capacitación en Servicio/normas , Cooperación Internacional , Polonia , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina , Sociedades Médicas/normasRESUMEN
SUMMARY: This study determined the incidence and probability of hip fractures in Poland based on verified hospital discharge notes from all of Poland. In the over-50-year-old population, hip fracture incidence was found to be 89/100,000 for men and 156/100,000 for women. Poland is among the countries with the lowest hip fracture risk in Europe. INTRODUCTION: It is recommended that intervention thresholds should be based on an assessment of absolute fracture risk. Probability of hip fracture is calculated from the incidence of hip fracture in a given population and the incidence of death. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and the absolute risk of hip fracture for men and women in Poland. METHODS: The study was based on National Health Fund data from all of Poland for the year 2005. Hospital discharge notes reporting an incident fracture were identified from among all those containing a matching ICD code. Lifetime and 10-year fracture probabilities were calculated taking into account the mortality risk and BMD. RESULTS: In 2005, there were 17,625 hip fractures diagnosed in Poland which was 30.2% less than the number of hospital discharge notes containing such a diagnosis in that year. In the over-50-year-old population, hip fracture incidence was found to be 89/100,000 for men and 165/100,000 for women. In the 50-65-year band, hip fracture incidence was higher in men than in women. The remaining lifetime probability of hip fracture at the age of 50 years was 2.0% for men and 4.5% for women which are among the lowest in Europe. CONCLUSION: Hip fracture incidence and thus the probability of hip fracture risk in Poland is amongst the lowest in Europe. The authors recommend establishing a standard method for determining hip fracture incidence in a given country in order to standardize data.