RESUMEN
Crude oil is an essential source of energy. Without access to energy, output growth is impossible. As a result of this link, volatility in oil prices has the ability to induce fluctuations in the output of both developed and developing economies. Moreover, factors such as business cycles and policy changes often introduce nonlinearity into the transmission mechanism of oil price shocks. This study therefore examines not only the interconnectedness of oil price volatility and output growth, but also the nonlinear, asymmetric impact of oil price volatility on output growth in the countries making up the Group of Seven. To this end, monthly data on West Texas Intermediate oil price and industrial production indices of the Group of Seven countries over the period 1990:01 to 2019:08 is used for empirical analysis. The study employs the DCC and cDCC-GARCH techniques for symmetric empirical analysis. The asymmetric empirical analysis is also conducted via GJR-GARCH, FIEGARCH, HYGARCH and cDCC-GARCH techniques. The findings reveal disparities in the magnitudes of the positive and negative (asymmetric) effects of oil price shocks on output growth. The results also reveal that past news and lagged volatility have a significant impact on the current conditional volatility of the output growth of the Group of Seven countries. The study concludes that the impact of oil price volatility on output growth in the selected economies is asymmetric, the volatility is highly persistent and clustered, and the asymmetric GARCH models outperform the symmetric GARCH models.
RESUMEN
This study investigates the effects of energy consumption, democracy and globalization on environmental degradation in the context of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for South Africa between 1971 and 2014. To this end, the study applies the combined Bayer-Hanck cointegration test and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) estimation approach. The empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables, and thus validate the EKC hypothesis for South Africa. In addition, while energy consumption increases environmental degradation, the effect of democracy is positively insignificant. The finding also suggests that globalization condenses environmental degradation. The results of the long-run causal relationship divulge that economic growth, energy consumption, democracy and globalization Granger-cause environmental degradation. The results also find causality running from CO2 emissions, economic growth, democracy and globalization to energy consumption. In the short run, a causality is found running from globalization to CO2 emissions, energy consumption to CO2 emissions and globalization to energy consumption. In addition, economic growth is said to Granger-cause democracy while democracy Granger-causes CO2 emissions. These results are validated by the innovation accounting tests.
Asunto(s)
Dióxido de Carbono , Democracia , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Dióxido de Carbono/química , Desarrollo Económico , Internacionalidad , SudáfricaRESUMEN
The interconnectivity between environmental degradation, poverty and agriculture is an issue of great concern, especially in developing countries. This paper studies the effect of agriculture on the environment, conditional upon the level of income in a panel of eleven Central and West African countries for the period 1996 to 2015, using Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) techniques. Our findings indicate that individually, income and agriculture aggravate environmental degradation. The interaction effect confirms that rising income levels dampen the negative impact of agriculture on the environment. Also, while increased use of renewable energy and improved regulations lower environmental degradation, population growth does more damage to the environment. This study concludes that unsustainable agricultural practices degrade the environment and poverty alleviation can mitigate the effect. To solve the problem of environmental degradation, poverty must be addressed and income levels must be raised in an ecofriendly manner.
RESUMEN
The study revisits the position of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in India by incorporating the role of energy consumption and democratic regime in the environmental degradation function for the period 1971-2014. Employing Zivot-Andrews nonstationarity test, Bayer-Hanck cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and vector autoregressive model (VECM) Granger causality test, the results found the integration order of I(1) and a stable cointegration among the series. The result validates the EKC hypothesis for India and further divulges that while energy consumption increases environmental degradation both in the long run and short run; the effect of democracy in reducing environmental degradation is weak (statistically insignificant) in the long run but strong (statistically significant) in the short run. The finding from the VECM Granger causality test indicates a long-run causality between the fundamental variables and environmental degradation. Furthermore, the results of the short run show a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to environmental degradation, energy consumption to real income, and energy consumption to square of real income. Therefore, our findings suggest that energy conservation policy should be prioritized towards harnessing energy from clean sources to mitigate environmental degradation and spur economic growth.