RESUMEN
Background: During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of India implemented a nationwide lockdown, sealing borders across states and districts. The northeastern region of India, surrounded by three international borders and connected to mainland India by a narrow passage, faced particular isolation. This isolation resulted in these states forming a relatively closed population. Consequently, the availability of population-based data from Indian Council of Medical Research, tracked through national identification cards, offered a distinctive opportunity to understand the spread of the virus among non-vaccinated and non-exposed populations. This research leverages this dataset to comprehend the repercussions within isolated populations. Methods: The inter-district variability was visualized using geospatial analysis. The patterns do not follow any established grounded theories on disease spread. Out of 7.1 million total data weekly 0.35 million COVID-19-positive northeast data was taken from April 2020 to February 2021 including "date, test result, population density, area, latitude, longitude, district, and state" to identify the spread pattern using a modified reaction-diffusion model (MRD-Model) and Geographic Information System. Findings: The analysis of the closed population group revealed an initial uneven yet rapidly expanding geographical spread characterized by a high diffusion rate α approximately 0.4503 and a lower reaction rate ß approximately 0.0256, which indicated a slower growth trajectory of case numbers rather than exponential escalation. In the latter stages, COVID-19 incidence reached zero in numerous districts, while in others, the reported cases did not exceed 100. Interpretation: The MRD-Model effectively captured the disease transmission dynamics in the abovementioned setting. This enhanced understanding of COVID-19 spread in remote, isolated regions provided by the MRD modelling framework can guide targeted public health strategies for similar isolated areas. Funding: This study is Funded by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).
RESUMEN
Spatiotemporal analysis is a critical tool for understanding COVID-19 spread. This study examines the pattern of spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases across India, based on data provided by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The research investigates temporal patterns during the first, second, and third waves in India for an informed policy response in case of any present or future pandemics. Given the colossal size of the dataset encompassing the entire nation's data during the pandemic, a time-bound convenience sampling approach was employed. This approach was carefully designed to ensure a representative sample from advancing timeframes to observe time-based patterns in data. Data were captured from March 2020 to December 2022, with a 5-day interval considered for downloading the data. We employ robust spatial analysis techniques, including the Moran's I index for spatial correlation assessment and the Getis Ord Gi* statistic for cluster identification. It was observed that positive COVID-19 cases in India showed a positive auto-correlation from May 2020 till December 2022. Moran's I index values ranged from 0.11 to 0.39. It signifies a strong trend over the last 3 years with [Formula: see text] of 0.74 on order 3 polynomial regression. It is expected that high-risk zones can have a higher number of cases in future COVID-19 waves. Monthly clusters of positive cases were mapped through ArcGIS software. Through cluster maps, high-risk zones were identified namely Kerala, Maharashtra, New Delhi, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat. The observation is: high-risk zones mostly fall near coastal areas and hotter climatic zones, contrary to the cold Himalayan region with Montanne climate zone. Our aggregate analysis of 3 years of COVID-19 cases suggests significant patterns of interconnectedness between the Indian Railway network, climatic zones, and geographical location with COVID-19 spread. This study thereby underscores the vital role of spatiotemporal analysis in predicting and managing future COVID-19 waves as well as future pandemics for an informed policy response.