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The aim of this analysis was to estimate the effect sizes and consistency of products evaluated for fire blight control in the eastern United States over the last decade. Because only 3% of the 69 studies published from 2000 to 2008 explicitly presented a measure of within-study variability, a method for estimating the least significant difference (LSD) and, hence the sampling variance, for studies with at least two significant mean separations in the presented mean multiple comparisons was developed. Lin's concordance analysis indicated that the estimated LSD was an accurate predictor of the actual LSD based on 35 studies in a calibration evaluation (ρ(c) = 0.997). Separate multi-treatment random-effects meta-analyses were performed for three control categories: antibiotics, biological control, and plant defense-activating products and mean log response ratios relative to the nontreated controls ([Formula: see text]) were computed for each treatment and then back-transformed to obtain the mean percent disease control. None of the products evaluated performed as well as streptomycin, the standard product for fire blight control, for which the mean disease control was 68.6%. As a group, experimental antibiotics provided the best fire blight control with mean effect sizes ranging from 59.7 to 61.7%. Among the biological controls, the best control was noted for treatments combining the antibiotic streptomycin with a product based on Pantoea agglomerans (55.0% mean disease reduction) or Bacillus subtilis (53.9%). Mean disease control was 31.9, 25.7, and 22.6%, respectively, for products based on B. subtilis, Pantoea agglomerans, and Pseudomonas fluorescens without an antibiotic, suggesting that the higher efficacy of the combination treatments was due to the antibiotic. Among the plant defense-activating products, prohexadione calcium had the highest and most consistent effect size (50.7% control), while other products provided modest mean disease control of between 6.1 and 25.8%. Percent control values were significantly moderated by study location and cultivar used in the study, and were smaller, but more variable, when products were tested under high disease intensity compared with low disease intensity. Results indicate that wide-scale use of biological control and plant defense-activating products in the eastern United States is likely to remain low.

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Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

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Aflatoxin contamination of peanuts poses a risk to human health and has been identified as a major constraint to trade in eastern Africa. A survey was carried out to obtain baseline data on levels of aflatoxin in peanuts from major production regions in western Kenya. A total of 384 and 385 samples from Busia and Homabay districts, respectively, were obtained and analyzed for aflatoxin content with an indirect competitive ELISA protocol. Levels of aflatoxin ranged from 0 to 2688 and 7525 microg/kg in samples from Busia and Homa Bay, respectively. Of 769 samples, 87.01% contained <4 microg/kg of aflatoxin, 5.45% were in the range > or =4 and 20 microg/kg, while 7.54% exceeded the Kenya's regulatory limit of 20 microg/kg. There was a highly significant (chi(2)=14.17; P<0.0002) association between district of origin and sample aflatoxin levels. This observation was supported by a significant (chi(2)=11.98; P=0.0005) association between levels of aflatoxin and agro ecological zones. Only 3.26% of the samples from the dryer LM3 zone had >20 microg/kg compared with 10.28% of the samples from the wetter and humid LM1 zone. There was also a highly significant (chi(2)=9.73; P=0.0018) association between cultivar improvement status and aflatoxin levels. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the odds for peanuts from Busia being contaminated were 2.6 times greater than those for peanuts from Homabay. Planting improved cultivars would lower the odds of contamination to a half (odds ratio=0.552) those for local landraces. These results are discussed in relation to the risk of human exposure to aflatoxins and the need for proper sampling procedures for regulatory purposes.

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To assess the prevalence and severity of sorghum diseases in western Kenya, a 2-year survey was conducted (July 1995 and 1996), in 91 and 109 farmers' fields, respectively. Fields were generally <0.5 ha and production environment ranged from warm-humid to warm-semi-arid. Fourteen foliar and six panicle diseases were observed, with limited variation in disease prevalence and severity between the 2 years. The most common foliar diseases observed were (in decreasing order of prevalence) oval leaf spot (Ramulispora sorghicola), rust (Puccinia purpurea), ladder leaf spot (Cercospora fusimaculans), zonate leaf spot (Gloeocercospora sorghi), gray leaf spot (Cercospora sorghi), leaf blight (Exserohilum turcicum), and anthracnose (Colletotrichum sublineolum); with prevalence ranging from 95 to 97% of fields for oval leaf spot, and 44 to 65% of fields for anthracnose. Head smut (Sporisorium reilianum), was observed in 73 to 75% of fields, covered kernel smut (S. sorghi) 42 to 43% of fields, and loose smut (S. cruenta) 14 to 24% of fields. Head smut incidence was >25% in 3% of fields surveyed. Grain yield reduction from smut diseases alone was estimated to be 5%. Out of eight probability distribution functions compared, the double Gaussian model best described the frequency of disease severity levels for most diseases. Based on the best-fitting model, the proportion of fields with disease severity level thought to cause yield loss (severity rating >5 on a 1 to 9 scale, where 1 = no disease) was calculated as 26.6% for oval leaf spot, 15.3% for rust, 14.8% for anthracnose, 4.8% for ladder leaf spot, and 1.5% for leaf blight. The production environment influenced the prevalence of disease severity. Severe anthracnose, leaf blight, and ladder leaf spot were confined to fields in the humid LM1 and LM2 agro-ecological zones, rust was ubiquitous, and severe gray leaf spot was more prevalent in the dryer LM4 zone.

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ABSTRACT Pseudosclerotia (infected, mummified fruit) of Monilinia vacciniicorymbosi overwinter on the orchard floor and germinate to produce apothecia in early spring, providing the only source of primary inoculum for mummy berry disease of blueberry. Three experiments were carried out to develop a model for the relative efficacy of mechanical cultivation in reducing the risk associated with primary inoculum. In the first experiment, apothecial emergence from pseudosclerotia buried 0, 1.5, 3, 6, and 10 cm below the soil surface was monitored to determine the critical depth necessary to inhibit emergence. No apothecia emerged from pseudosclerotia buried at depths of >/=3 cm, and the critical depth of burial was determined at 2.6 cm by regression analysis. In the second experiment, pseudosclerotia or plastic beads (used as surrogates for pseudosclerotia) were placed on the soil surface of experimental plots before cultivation with an in-row rotary cultivator, a disc harrow, or a rotary cultivator with each implement operated in a single pass. Vertical distribution profiles of pseudosclerotia or beads in the topsoil were characterized after excavation with a custom-built sampling device. The proportion of pseudosclerotia placed below the critical depth of 2.6 cm was 20.9, 52.6, and 78.6% for the in-row rotary cultivator, the disc harrow, and the rotary cultivator, respectively. For all three implements, vertical distribution profiles of pseudosclerotia and plastic beads were very similar, allowing the latter to be used in subsequent experiments in commercial fields. In the third experiment, two blueberry plantings were surveyed to determine the horizontal distribution of pseudosclerotia on the orchard floor with distance from the crowns of the plants. The greatest frequency of pseudosclerotia occurred between 30 and 40 cm from the plants. Based on measurements of the distance from plants within which different implements can operate, the proportion of pseudosclerotia accessible by cultivation ranged from 58.7% for the disc harrow to 87.2% for the in-row rotary cultivator. Taken together, results from the three experiments indicated that cultivation with a single implement can reduce risk of apothecial emergence by about 50%. More effective risk reductions may be obtained by combining implements that result in deep burial of pseudosclerotia with those that have access to pseudosclerotia near the plants. This was demonstrated by a commercial cultivation method that utilized three passes of different implements and resulted in extensive reshaping of plant beds, placing 88.2% of beads below the critical depth of 2.6 cm.

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ABSTRACT Monilinia vaccinii-corymbosi infects open blueberry flowers via the gynoecial pathway, leading to mummification of the developing fruit. To determine the effect of flower age on infection, stigmata were inoculated with conidia of M. vaccinii-corymbosi between 0 and 5 days after anthesis, fungal growth rates through the stylar canal were measured in detached flowers in the laboratory, and fruit disease incidence was determined in plants grown in the greenhouse. Hyphal growth rates were greatest in flowers inoculated on the day of anthesis, declined linearly with increasing flower age at inoculation (r = 0.921; P < 0.0001; n = 12), and were unaffected by the presence or absence of pollen applied at the time of inoculation. In greenhouse-grown plants, the percentage of infected fruit decreased exponentially with increasing flower age at inoculation (R = 0.878; P = 0.0057; n = 10), with disease incidence ranging from 76.4% for flowers inoculated on the day of anthesis to 15.5% for those inoculated 4 days later. Fruit disease incidence in the greenhouse was linearly correlated with hyphal growth rates in detached flowers (r = 0.985; P < 0.0001; n = 9), justifying the use of detached flowers when investigating gynoecial infection by M. vaccinii-corymbosi. In separate experiments, the effects of timing and sequence of pollination and inoculation on hyphal growth rates through the stylar canal and on disease incidence were investigated. Application of pollen to detached flowers 1 or 2 days before inoculation reduced hyphal growth rates by between 14.0 and 42.9% compared with flowers that received pollen and conidia simultaneously. Similarly, reductions in fruit disease incidence by between 9.5 and 18.3% were observed on greenhouse-grown plants for pollination-to-inoculation intervals ranging from 1 to 4 days. These results document that newly opened flowers are most susceptible to infection by M. vaccinii-corymbosi and that fruit disease incidence is reduced if pollination occurs at least 1 day before inoculation. Strategies that lead to early pollination of newly opened flowers may be useful for managing mummy berry disease in the field.

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Field studies were conducted at Alupe in western Kenya in 1995 and 1996 to evaluate the efficacy of crop and species mixtures for the management of sorghum anthracnose (caused by Colletotrichum sublineolum) and leaf blight (caused by Exserohilum turcicum). The progress of these diseases developing simultaneously on a susceptible sorghum cultivar planted in inter- or intra-row mixtures of varying proportions with either maize or resistant sorghum was monitored. The effects of host type and mixture patterns on disease progress were compared by parameter estimates derived from fitted Lotka-Volterra competition equations and nonlinear logistic models. Competition coefficients were not significant and their confidence intervals included zero in most cases, suggesting that interactions between C. sublineolum and E. turcicum did not occur. Mixtures of the susceptible sorghum with either the nonhost maize or the resistant sorghum delayed the time when disease is first observed and reduced the rate of disease progress and carrying capacity for both anthracnose and leaf blight, with a more pronounced effect on the latter disease. The lower efficacy of mixtures in reducing anthracnose was attributed to an aggregated spatial pattern, coupled with higher rates of progress for this disease. Intra-row mixtures were more efficient than inter-row mixtures in reducing disease development in all years. The implications of these observations for the management of sorghum diseases under small-scale farming systems are discussed.