RESUMEN
Since the 1970s, the northern part of Côte d'Ivoire has experienced considerable fluctuation in its meteorology including a general decrease of rainfall and increase of temperature from 1970 to 2000, a slight increase of rainfall since 2000, a severe drought in 2004-2005 and flooding in 2006-2007. Such changing climate patterns might affect the transmission of malaria. The purpose of this study was to analyze climate and environmental parameters associated with malaria transmission in Korhogo, a city in northern Côte d'Ivoire. All data were collected over a 10-year period (2004-2013). Rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were the climate and environmental variables considered. Association between these variables and clinical malaria data was determined, using negative binomial regression models. From 2004 to 2013, there was an increase in the annual average precipitation (1100.3-1376.5 mm) and the average temperature (27.2°C-27.5°C). The NDVI decreased from 0.42 to 0.40. We observed a strong seasonality in these climatic variables, which resembled the seasonality in clinical malaria. An incremental increase of 10 mm of monthly precipitation was, on average, associated with a 1% (95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.7 to 1.2%) and a 1.2% (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.5%) increase in the number of clinical malaria episodes one and two months later respectively. A 1°C increase in average monthly temperature was, on average, associated with a decline of a 3.5% (95% CI: 0.1 to 6.7%) in clinical malaria episodes. A 0.1 unit increase in monthly NDVI was associated with a 7.3% (95% CI: 0.8 to 14.1%) increase in the monthly malaria count. There was a similar increase for the preceding-month lag (6.7% (95% CI: 2.3% to 11.2%)). The study results can be used to establish a malaria early warning system in Korhogo to prepare for outbreaks of malaria, which would increase community resilience no matter the magnitude and pattern of climate change.
Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Brotes de Enfermedades , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/transmisión , Côte d'Ivoire/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , MasculinoRESUMEN
We assessed the association between childhood diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors in rural and urban settings in the health district of Mbour in western Senegal. We used monthly diarrhoeal case records among children under five years registered in 24 health facilities over a four-year period (2011-2014). Climatic data (i.e., daily temperature, night temperature and rainfall) for the same four-year period were obtained. We performed a negative binomial regression model to establish the relationship between monthly diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors of the same and the previous month. There were two annual peaks in diarrhoeal incidence: one during the cold dry season and one during the rainy season. We observed a positive association between diarrhoeal incidence and high average temperature of 36 °C and above and high cumulative monthly rainfall at 57 mm and above. The association between diarrhoeal incidence and temperature was stronger in rural compared to urban settings, while higher rainfall was associated with higher diarrhoeal incidence in the urban settings. Concluding, this study identified significant health-climate interactions and calls for effective preventive measures in the health district of Mbour. Particular attention should be paid to urban settings where diarrhoea was most common in order to reduce the high incidence in the context of climatic variability, which is expected to increase in urban areas in the face of global warming.
Asunto(s)
Clima , Diarrea/epidemiología , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Masculino , Modelos Estadísticos , Lluvia , Población Rural , Senegal/epidemiología , Temperatura , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases remain an important cause of mortality and morbidity among children, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. In Senegal, diarrhoea is responsible for 15% of all deaths in children under the age of five and is the third leading cause of childhood deaths. For targeted planning and implementation of prevention strategies, a context-specific understanding of the determinants of diarrhoeal diseases is needed. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of diarrhoeal diseases in children under the age of five in Mbour, Senegal. METHODS: Between February and March 2014, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in four zones of Mbour to estimate the burden of diarrhoeal diseases (i.e. diarrhoea episodes in the 2 weeks preceding the survey) and associated risk factors. The zones covered urban central, peri-central, north peripheral and south peripheral areas. Overall, 596 households were surveyed by a questionnaire, yielding information on sociodemographic, environmental and hygiene behavioural factors. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of diarrhoea. RESULTS: The reported prevalence of diarrhoea among children under the age of five during the 2 weeks preceding the survey was 26%. Without adjustment, the highest diarrhoea prevalence rates were observed in the peri-central (44.8%) and urban central zones (36.3%). Multivariable regression revealed significant associations between diarrhoeal diseases and unemployment of mothers (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-2.23), use of open bags for storing household waste (aOR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.00-3.02), evacuation of household waste in public streets (aOR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.20-3.55), no treatment of stored drinking water (aOR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.11-2.56) and use of shared toilets (aOR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.11-2.56). CONCLUSION: We found a high prevalence of diarrhoea in children under the age of five in Mbour, with the highest prevalence occurring in the central and peri-central areas. These findings underscore the need for public health interventions to alleviate the burden of diarrhoea among vulnerable groups. Promotion of solid waste disposal and reduction of wastewater exposure should be implemented without delay.
Asunto(s)
Diarrea/epidemiología , Ambiente , Higiene , Factores Socioeconómicos , Preescolar , Estudios Transversales , Diarrea/etiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Oportunidad Relativa , Prevalencia , Factores de Riesgo , Senegal/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Four large outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) occurred in Mauritania in 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2012 which caused lots of animal and several human deaths. We investigated rainfall and vegetation conditions that might have impacted on RVF transmission over the affected regions. Our results corroborate that RVF transmission generally occurs during the months of September and October in Mauritania, similarly to Senegal. The four outbreaks were preceded by a rainless period lasting at least a week followed by heavy precipitation that took place during the second half of the rainy season. First human infections were generally reported three to five weeks later. By bridging the gap between meteorological forecasting centers and veterinary services, an early warning system might be developed in Senegal and Mauritania to warn decision makers and health services about the upcoming RVF risk.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Fiebre del Valle del Rift/epidemiología , Animales , Bovinos , Cabras , Humanos , Mauritania , Lluvia , OvinosRESUMEN
After 8 years of silence, dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) reemerged in southeastern Senegal in 1999. Sixty-four DENV-2 strains were isolated in 1999 and 9 strains in 2000 from mosquitoes captured in the forest gallery and surrounding villages. Isolates were obtained from previously described vectors, Aedes furcifer, Ae. taylori, Ae. luteocephalus, and--for the first time in Senegal--from Ae. aegypti and Ae. vittatus. A retrospective analysis of sylvatic DENV-2 outbreaks in Senegal during the last 28 years of entomologic investigations shows that amplifications are periodic, with intervening, silent intervals of 5-8 years. No correlation was found between sylvatic DENV-2 emergence and rainfall amount. For sylvatic DENV-2 vectors, rainfall seems to particularly affect virus amplification that occurs at the end of the rainy season, from October to November. Data obtained from investigation of preimaginal (i.e., nonadult) mosquitoes suggest a secondary transmission cycle involving mosquitoes other than those identified previously as vectors.