RESUMEN
Time series analysis of overwintering cereals in snowy areas has revealed several phenological patterns associated with climate changes in winter. Herein, to investigate the recent effect of climatic variations on overwintering cereals, we investigated the phenology over multiple decades at three snowy region sites with an air temperature (Tair) increase trend of 0.48-1.09 °C/decade. Our findings were as follows: heading trends differed within the same cultivar at different sites; phenology was promoted with increasing temperatures in cooler regions and decreasing snow duration in regions with heavy snow; crown temperature (Tcrown) was a more direct determinant than Tair in phenology estimation model in regions with heavy snow. A thermal gap of more than a few degrees Celsius between Tair and Tcrown, owing to the insulation effect of snowpack, affected the phenology of overwintering cereals. A shorter snow cover period promoted phenology in locations with temperatures >0 °C. Subsequently, we found that when the thermal gap was >0 °C of the growing temperature range, Tcrown directly helped determine the phenology of overwintering cereals, and irrespective of the warming trend, the periodic inflow of cold air into the northern mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and associated snow cover changes dominated Tcrown, resulting in annual phenological anomalies with a range of fluctuations of approximately 1 month. The trend of increasing Tair during spring in northern Japan is consistent with the global trend, with a pronounced trend of advancing phenology reaching >4 days/decade in a typical cooler location experiencing snowmelt in March.
RESUMEN
Human activities have had the strongest impacts on natural ecosystems since the last glacial period, including the alteration of interspecific relationships such as food webs. In this paper, we present a historical record of major alterations of trophic structure by revealing millennium-scale dietary shifts of brown bears (Ursus arctos) on the Hokkaido islands, Japan, using carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur stable isotope analysis. Dietary analysis of brown bears revealed that salmon consumption by bears in the eastern region of Hokkaido significantly decreased from 19% to 8%. In addition, consumption of terrestrial animals decreased from 56% to 5% in western region, and 64% to 8% in eastern region. These dietary shifts are likely to have occurred in the last approximately 100-200 years, which coincides with the beginning of modernisation in this region. Our results suggest that human activities have caused an alteration in the trophic structure of brown bears in the Hokkaido islands. This alteration includes a major decline in the marine-terrestrial linkage in eastern region, and a loss of indirect-interactions between bears and wolves, because the interactions potentially enhanced deer predation by brown bears.