RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease. Complications due to progression of liver disease may deteriorate the liver function and worsen prognosis. Previous studies have shown that patients with liver cirrhosis are at increased risk of death within 90-day after hospitalization. It is necessary to identify patients who are at higher risk of early mortality. This study aims to develop a scoring system to predict the 90-day mortality among hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis that could be used for modification of treatment plan according to the scores that have been obtained. By using this scoring system, crucial care of plans can be taken to reduce the risk of mortality. METHOD: This prospective cohort study was conducted on hospitalized cirrhotic patients at Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded. Patients were monitored for up to 90-day after hospitalization to determine their condition. Cox regression analysis was performed to obtain predictor factors contributing to mortality in liver cirrhosis patients. The scoring system that resulted from this study categorized patients into low, moderate, and high-risk categories based on their predicted mortality rates. The sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system were evaluated using the AUC (area under the curve) metric. RESULT: The study revealed that liver cirrhosis patients who were hospitalized had a 90-day mortality rate of 42.2%, with contributing factors including Child-Pugh, MELD, and leukocyte levels. The combination of these variables had a good discriminative value with an AUC of 0.921 (95% CI: 0.876-0.967). The scoring system resulted in three risk categories: low risk (score of 0-3) with a 4.1-18.4% probability of death, moderate risk (score of 5-6) with a 40.5-54.2% probability of death, and high risk (score of 8-11) with a 78.1-94.9% probability of death. CONCLUSION: The scoring system has shown great accuracy in predicting 90-day mortality in hospitalized cirrhosis patients, making it a valuable tool for identifying the necessary care and interventions needed for these patients upon admission.
Asunto(s)
Hospitales , Cirrosis Hepática , Humanos , Estudios Prospectivos , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Pronóstico , Estudios Retrospectivos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Curva ROCRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Sofosbuvir (SOF) and daclatasvir (DCV) regimens are recommended for all genotypes of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, DCV accessibility is still low in several low- and middle-income countries. Ribavirin (RBV) is more affordable and has been known for chronic HCV treatment along with SOF or interferon. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of SOF + RBV and SOF + DCV regimens for treatment of chronic HCV in Indonesia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study among patients with chronic HCV who were treated with SOF. Data on SOV + RBV were collected from 2015 to 2016, while those on SOF + DCV were collected from 2016 to 2017. The baseline characteristics were recorded from the medical record unit in Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. The primary outcome was the achievement of sustained virological response at 12 weeks (SVR12). RESULTS: Of 309 patients, 64.4% (199/309) had genotype 1 infections, 29.8% (92/309) had cirrhosis, and 4.9% (15/309) had co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). At the end of treatment (EOT), 99.3% (136/137) patients in the SOF + RBV group and 99.4% (164/165) in SOF + DCV group had no detectable viral load. The criterion for SVR12 was met in 90.8% (109/120) patients in SOF + RBV regimen and 98.2% (108/110) in SOF + DCV regimen. Among patients with cirrhosis, 84.4% (38/45) patients and 100% (27/27) achieved SVR12 in the SOF + RBV and SOF + DCV groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: SOF + DCV regimen had higher SVR rates compared to SOF + RBV regimen (p = 0.034). However, both the regimens showed an impressive outcome, with overall SVR12 rates above 90%, irrespective of presence of cirrhosis and HCV genotype. In non-structural protein 5A inhibitor limited setting, SOF + RBV regimen still can be used as treatment for HCV infection, particularly in non-cirrhotic patients.