RESUMEN

Theileriosis or East Coast Fever (ECF) is an important livestock disease widespread in Zambia except for some provinces such as Luapula. This freedom status has been achieved due to strict livestock movement regulations that only authorise cattle imports from commercial farms implementing strict ECF control regimens. Recent increases in both the demand and price of beef in Zambia are stimulating a policy change towards a more inclusive inter-provincial trade in live cattle. This may also encourage the introduction of breeding cattle from high production pastoral sectors such as Central Province to stimulate the beef industry in disease free low production areas such as the Luapula Province. To estimate and compare the risks linked with those potential introductions of cattle from the traditional or commercial production sectors of the Central Province, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed. This risk comparison was necessary because the traditional livestock production sector accounts for over 79% of breeding cattle trade in Central Province but is characterised by minimalistic tick-borne disease control and a higher prevalence of ECF. We estimate that should the importation of breeding cattle from Central into Luapula Province be permitted, we could expect to import ECF by the introduction of infected animals at a median rate (5th and 95th percentiles) of every 0.44 years (0.12, 2.60), from the traditional sector compared to every 3.57 years (0.37, 103.6) from the commercial sector. Infected ticks would be expected to enter every 3.46 (0.66, 43.8) years via traditional cattle imports. These risks are strongly influenced by the prevalence of infection, performance of pre-transport screening tests, and the effectiveness of pre-transport tick cleansing. This assessment is expected to provide a model for tick borne disease risk assessments in similar settings, as well as inform ECF control, cattle trade, and stock movement policies in Zambia.

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RESUMEN

A qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of introducing Peste des petits ruminants virus into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. Data was collected during a mission to Tanzania and northern Zambia and also from literature and interviews with experts. The risk of PPRV introduction was evaluated as a function of the probability of hazard (PPRV) release, exposure of susceptible hosts, and the consequences of spread using the following parameters: prevalence of infection, volume of trade, C-ELISA and quarantine screening missing an infected animal, PPRV viability (remaining infective) in transit, and the virus potential for infection. The magnitude of the consequences was derived from the probability of transmission and spread and the impact of PPRV introduction and establishment. Accordingly, the probability of occurrence of PPRV in northern Zambia from Tanzania was rated as "high" and the economic consequences were also rated as "high." Finally, the overall risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania at the time of the assessment was rated "high." It was concluded that import of goats and sheep be prohibited until efficient and adequate measures to reduce the risk have been put in place.

RESUMEN

This paper presents the results of an economic simulation model evaluating the costs and benefits of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) control in a wildlife-livestock interface area of Southern Zambia over a 10 year period, using test and slaughter in livestock and promotion of milk pasteurization amongst livestock keeping communities to reduce the zoonotic transmission of bTB through milk. Expected benefits included increased productivity and health in village resident and transhumant cattle, and averted human bTB treatment costs after the fourth year of the project. In monetary terms, at different bTB prevalence estimates in cattle, the simulation outcome showed that the costs of control never exceeded the few benefits considered over the simulated period. However, the benefits are likely to outweigh the costs if wider implications of bTB in humans (infirmity-related productivity losses), livestock and wildlife (reduced productivity and herd value in cattle and diminished tourism potential from bTB-related wildlife mortalities) are taken into account.

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