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The directive from Congress in the Endangered Species Act obliging the US Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service along with other federal agencies to use the best available scientific information in their determinations-and calls from stakeholder communities to show that they have done so-have led the federal wildlife agencies to seek external, expert review of their determinations with increasing frequency over time. In the present article, we survey the agency determinations that may be subject to independent science review and the technical tasks embedded in those determinations that can benefit from such review. We go on to identify common failures in scientific review that compromise the quality and reliability of agency determinations and then describe the attributes of independent scientific reviews that enable the agencies to discharge their statutory duties while seeking to conserve threatened and endangered species and the ecosystems on which they depend.

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We developed a mechanistic life-cycle model derived from the elicitation of multiple factors influencing the success of individual life-stages of the imperiled delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). We discuss the relevance of limiting factors in population ecology and problems with additive models in detecting them. We identify limiting factors and assess their significance using a non-linear optimization routine, combined with traditional metrics to assess the value of covariates and model performance. After reviewing previous conceptual models and multivariate analyses, we identified a set of factors that were consistent with conceptual models and useful in explaining the erratic fluctuations in a common abundance index: food at certain times in certain locations, predation by introduced species primarily in the spring, and entrainment. The analytical approach provides a transparent and intuitive framework in which to consider the contribution of covariates and consequences for population trends, and has the potential to assist with the evaluation of proposed recovery measures.

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The Endangered Species Act's best available science mandate has been widely emulated and reflects a Congressional directive to ensure that decisions made under the Act are informed by reliable knowledge applied using a structured approach. We build on a standing literature by describing the role of the best science directive in the Act's implementation and best practices that can be employed to realize the directive. Next we describe recurring impediments to realizing determinations by the federal wildlife agencies that are based on the best available science. We then identify the types of data, analyses, and modeling efforts that can serve as best science. Finally, we consider the role and application of best available science in effects analysis and adaptive management. We contend that more rigorous adherence by the wildlife agencies to the best available science directive and more assiduous judicial oversight of agency determinations and actions is essential for effective implementation of the Act, particularly where it has substantial ramifications for listed species, stakeholder segments of society, or both.

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Conservation biology has provided wildlife managers with a wealth of concepts and tools for use in conservation planning; among them is the surrogate species concept. Over the past 20 years, a growing body of empirical literature has demonstrated the limited effectiveness of surrogates as management tools, unless it is first established that the target species and surrogate will respond similarly to a given set of environmental conditions. Wildlife managers and policy makers have adopted the surrogate species concept, reflecting the limited information available on most species at risk of extirpation or extinction and constraints on resources available to support conservation efforts. We examined the use of surrogate species, in the form of cross-taxon response-indicator species (that is, one species from which data are used to guide management planning for another, distinct species) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California (U.S.A.). In that system there has been increasing reliance on surrogates in conservation planning for species listed under federal or state endangered species acts, although the agencies applying the surrogate species concept did not first validate that the surrogate and target species respond similarly to relevant environmental conditions. During the same period, conservation biologists demonstrated that the surrogate concept is generally unsupported by ecological theory and empirical evidence. Recently developed validation procedures may allow for the productive use of surrogates in conservation planning, but, used without validation, the surrogate species concept is not a reliable planning tool.

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The Endangered Species Act is intended to conserve at-risk species and the ecosystems upon which they depend, and it is premised on the notion that if the wildlife agencies that are charged with implementing the statute use the best available scientific information, they can successfully carry out this intention. We assess effects analysis as a tool for using best science to guide agency decisions under the Act. After introducing effects analysis, we propose a framework that facilitates identification and use of the best available information in the development of agency determinations. The framework includes three essential steps--the collection of reliable scientific information, the critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses derived from those data, and the analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. We warn of likely obstacles to rigorous, structured effect analyses and describe the extent to which independent scientific review may assist in overcoming these obstacles. We conclude by describing eight essential elements that are required for a successful effects analysis.

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Charismatic groups of animals and plants often are proposed as sentinels of environmental status and trends. Nevertheless, many claims that a certain taxonomic group can provide more-general information on environmental quality are not evaluated critically. To address several of the many definitions of indicator species, we used butterflies to explore in some detail the attributes that affect implementation of indicators generically. There probably are few individual species, or sets of species, that can serve as scientifically valid, cost-effective measures of the status or trend of an environmental phenomenon that is difficult to measure directly. Nevertheless, there are species with distributions, abundances, or demographic characteristics that are responsive to known environmental changes. In this context, single or multiple species can serve as indicators when targets are defined explicitly, ecological relationships between the target and the putative indicators are well understood, and data are sufficient to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic responses. Although these situations exist, they are less common than might be apparent from an extensive and often confounded literature on indicators. Instead, the public appeal of charismatic groups may be driving much of their acclaim as indicators. The same taxon may not be appropriate for marketing a general conservation mission and for drawing strong inference about specific environmental changes. To provide insights into the progress of conservation efforts, it is essential to identify scientific and practical criteria for selection and application of indicators and then to examine whether a given taxonomic group meets those criteria.

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Research that connects the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem services is lacking. Ants perform multifarious ecological functions that stabilize ecosystems and contribute to a number of ecosystem services. We studied responses of ant communities to urbanization in the Lake Tahoe basin by sampling sites along a gradient of urban land development. We sampled ant communities, measured vegetation characteristics, quantified human activities, and evaluated ant-community responses by grouping ants into service-providing units (SPUs), defined as a group of organisms and their populations that perform specific ecosystem services, to provide an understanding of urbanization impacts on biodiversity and their delivery of ecosystem services. Species richness and abundance peaked at intermediate levels of urban development, as did the richness of 3 types of ant SPUs (aerators, decomposers, and compilers). With increasing land development aerator and decomposer ants significantly declined in abundance, whereas compiler ants significantly increased in abundance. Competing models demonstrated that precipitation was frequently among the strongest influences on ant community structure; however, urban development and human activities also had a strong, negative influence on ants, appearing in most models with DeltaAIC(c) < 2 for species richness and abundance patterns of SPUs and generalists. Response diversity was observed within SPUs, which suggests that the corresponding ecosystem services were maintained until development reached 30-40%. Our data provide evidence that ecosystem functions, such as water infiltration and soil productivity, may be diminished at sites subject to greater levels of urbanization and that conserving ant communities and the ecosystem services they provide could be an important target in land-use planning and conservation efforts.

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We used nested subsets analysis to examine distribution patterns of birds and butterflies in the same set of 83 locations in canyons of three mountain ranges in the Great Basin of western North America. We tested whether the same environmental variables influenced nestedness among taxonomic groups and among mountain ranges within taxonomic groups. We also examined whether nestedness of birds and butterflies appeared to be sensitive to human use of riparian areas in the ecoregion. Site area and topography did not appear to differ in their influence on nestedness of birds. By contrast, area and topography differed in how strongly they affected nestedness of butterflies, but their respective influence varied among mountain ranges. Riparian dependence had little discernible effect on nested distribution patterns of either taxonomic group. Because processes influencing distribution patterns can differ among taxonomic groups, and the relative importance of those processes may vary spatially even within a taxonomic group, we urge restraint in using birds and butterflies as surrogates of other taxa for conservation planning.

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We examined nestedness and potential mechanisms causing that distributional pattern in resident butterfly communities of the Toiyabe Range, a mountain range in the central Great Basin of western North America. We tested whether life history characteristics, including habitat use and vagility, affected the relative degree of nestedness or mean species incidence. We also tested whether nestedness at the level of individual species was independent of life history. Relationships between distributional patterns and habitat use, particularly in ecologically sensitive riparian areas, are relevant to ongoing conservation planning in the Great Basin. The distributional pattern of the 68 resident butterfly species in 19 Toiyabe Range canyons was significantly nested, as was the distribution of all functional subgroups that we tested. Life history affected neither relative nestedness of species groups nor mean species incidence. More than 80% of the individual butterfly species that inhabit the Toiyabe Range had distributions that were more nested than expected. Colonization does not appear to have played an important role in determining the composition of butterfly communities in Toiyabe Range canyons. Likewise, selective dispersal has probably played a minor role in producing nested distributions of Toiyabe Range butterflies. Our results suggest either that impacts to riparian areas are not jeopardizing species viability, or that highly sensitive butterfly species have already been extirpated from the Toiyabe Range.

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We estimated lifetime reproductive success of Euphydryas editha bayensis (Nymphalidae), a federally listed threatened butterfly, based on age-specific fecundity and both adult and offspring survival. Our results indicate that the relative timing of adult emergence and larval hosplant senescence strongly influenced reproductive success of females. For 1992, we estimated that only 8-21% of the eggs laid by females emerging on the 1st day of the 4-week flight season would produce larvae that reach diapause. This figure dropped to 1-5% for females emerging 7 days into the flight season. Within our entire sample, we estimated that 64-88% of the females produced offspring with less than a 2% probability of reaching diapause. These estimates are particularly striking given that they are based on only one source of larval mortality - prediapause starvation due to hostplant senescence. This dependence of reproductive success on the relative timing of female emergence and hostplant senescence may reduce effective population size and render E. editha bayensis especially vulnerable to local extinction events.

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The prediction of adult emergence times in insect populations can be greatly complicated by microclimatic gradients, especially in circumstances where distributions of juveniles along those gradients vary from year to year. To investigate adult emergence patterns in topographically heterogeneous habitats, we built a model of postdiapause development of the Bay checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis. The model uses slope-specific insolation as the rate-controlling variable, and accounts for both solar exposure of the habitat and cloud cover. Instar-specific larval mass gains per unit of insolation were determined from mark-recapture experiments. A small correction for daily low temperatures was used to calibrate the model to five years of field data on larval mass. The model predicted mean mass of 90% of larval samples within 4 clear days over a 70-120 day growing season. The magnitude of spatial variation in emergence times across habitat slopes is greater than annual variation in emergence times due to yearly weather conditions. Historical variation (yearly shifts in larval distributions across slopes) is an important determinant of mean population emergence dates. All of these factors need to be considered in understanding adult emergence phenology in this butterfly and in other insects inhabiting heterogeneous thermal environments. Such an understanding can be useful in managing insect populations for both pest control and conservation.

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To meet the requirements of Congressional legislation mandating the production of a "scientifically credible" conservation strategy for the threatened Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), the Interagency Spotted Owl Scientific Committee employed scientific methods to design a habitat reserve system. Information on the current and historical distributions of the owl and its habitats was reviewed in light of economic, political, and legal constraints; results were used to develop a preliminary reserve system of habitat "polygons." A map representing these polygons and their attendant properties served as a set of hypotheses that were tested. Statistical analyses of empirical data, predictions from ecological theory, predictions from population dynamics models, and inferences drawn from studies of related species were used to test properties of the preliminary map, including the number and sizes of habitat conservation areas (HCAs), their distribution, configuration, and spacing, and the nature of the landscape matrix between HCAs. Conclusions that failed to confirm specific map properties were used to refine the reserve system, a process that continued iteratively until all relevant data had been examined and all map properties had been tested. This conservation planning process has proven to be credible, repeatable, and scientifically defendable, and should serve as a model for wildlife management, endangered species recovery, and national forest planning.

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Butterfly species lists were assembled for 18 Great Basin mountain ranges for which distributional data on mammals and birds have been analysed previously by other workers. The ranges represent remnant islands of the boreal habitat that once was continuous across the Great Basin but is now restricted to higher elevations as a result of climatic change at the close of the Pleistocene. The effects of biogeographic factors (area, distance, elevation) and habitat diversity on butterfly species number were examined. The Great Basin boreal butterfly faunas were found to be depauperate overall relative that of the principal mainland source, the Rocky Mountains, and were found to have fewer species than predicted by the mainland species-area data. However, only a weak area effect, and no distance effect, was detected by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Furthermore, the habitat diversity score found to explain virtually all the variation in bird species number in the same ranges in previous studies is only marginally significantly correlated with butterflies. When the butterflies are subdivided according to their vagility, the relative differences in the species-area correlation and slope (z-value) between the vagility categories were consistent with those found previously for mammals and birds, and, as predicted by theory, less vagile taxa exhibit higher species-area correlations and z-values. Overall, differences in the insular biogeography of buttterflies and vertebrates seem to reflect fundamental ecological differences between the taxa.

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The distribution of nectar sources is shown to affect both the distribution of adult Euphydryas chalcedona and their offspring. We suggest that nectar sources thereby influence the selection of oviposition host plant species in habitats where those species are spacially separated.

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Carbohydrate intake increases longevity, body weight maintenance and egg production in female Euphydryas editha. Amino acid intake leads to heavier eggs, larvae from which are more likely to survive. Females fed nectar produce more eggs in later masses than females which are not fed. During years of normal and below normal precipitation, larvae emerging from these later eggs are unlikely to reach obligatory size for diapause before their food dries up. On Jasper Ridge, where mortality is density-independent, nectar plays an important role increasing production of late egg masses during years of greater than normal rainfall when larvae from these masses are likely to reach diapause. The resulting large population increases, though infrequent, are probably important in maintaining population sizes large enough to reduce the chances of extinction during dry years.