RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality and exerts an increasingly significant burden on global healthcare resources, with its prevalence rising with an ageing population. Despite a substantial thromboembolic risk, particularly in the period immediately following diagnosis, oral anti-coagulation is frequently not initiated or is delayed. The aim of this study was to evaluate healthcare costs in people with AF, comparing those who were commenced on oral anti-coagulation in the immediate period following the index diagnosis date with those in whom initiation was late and those who never started anti-coagulation. METHODS: This retrospective cost analysis used linked Scottish health data to identify adults newly diagnosed with AF between January 1st 2012 and April 30th 2019 with a baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥ 2. This AF population was sub-divided according to timing of the first prescription of oral anti-coagulant (OAC) during a 2-year follow-up period: never started (OAC never initiated), immediate OAC (OAC prescribed within 60 days of incident AF diagnosis), and delayed OAC (OAC prescribed more than 60 days after incident AF diagnosis). A two-part model was developed, adjusted for key covariates, including age, sex, and frailty, to estimate costs for inpatient admissions, outpatient care, prescriptions, and care home admissions, and overall costs. RESULTS: Of an overall AF population of 54,385, 26,805 (49.3%) never commenced OAC, 7654 (14.1%) initiated an OAC late, and 19,926 (36.6%) were prescribed anti-coagulation immediately. The mean adjusted cost for the overall AF population was £7807 per person per year (unadjusted: £8491). Delayed OAC initiation was associated with the greatest adjusted estimated mean annual cost (unadjusted: £13,983; adjusted: £9763), compared to those that never started (unadjusted: £10,433; adjusted: £7981) and those that received an immediate OAC prescription (unadjusted: £3976; adjusted: £6621). Increasing frailty, mortality, and female sex were associated with greater healthcare costs. CONCLUSION: AF is associated with significant healthcare resource utilisation and costs, particularly in the context of delayed or non-initiation of anti-coagulation. Indeed, there exists substantial opportunity to improve the utilisation and prompt initiation in people newly diagnosed with AF in Scotland. Interventions to mitigate against the growing economic burden of AF should focus on reducing admissions to hospitals and care homes, which are the principal drivers of costs; prescriptions and outpatient appointments account for a relatively small proportion of overall costs for AF.
RESUMEN
Aims: Whilst anti-coagulation is typically recommended for thromboprophylaxis in atrial fibrillation (AF), it is often never prescribed or prematurely discontinued. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of inequalities in anti-coagulant prescribing by assessing stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding risk in people with AF who continue anti-coagulation compared with those who stop transiently, permanently, or never start. Methods and results: This retrospective cohort study utilized linked Scottish healthcare data to identify adults diagnosed with AF between January 2010 and April 2016, with a CHA2DS2-VASC score of ≥2. They were sub-categorized based on anti-coagulant exposure: never started, continuous, discontinuous, and cessation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression and competing risk regression was utilized to compare SSE and bleeding risks between cohorts during 5-year follow-up. Of an overall cohort of 47 427 people, 26 277 (55.41%) were never anti-coagulated, 7934 (16.72%) received continuous anti-coagulation, 9107 (19.2%) temporarily discontinued, and 4109 (8.66%) permanently discontinued. Lower socio-economic status, elevated frailty score, and age ≥ 75 were associated with a reduced likelihood of initiation and continuation of anti-coagulation. Stroke/systemic embolism risk was significantly greater in those with discontinuous anti-coagulation, compared with continuous [subhazard ratio (SHR): 2.65; 2.39-2.94]. In the context of a major bleeding event, there was no significant difference in bleeding risk between the cessation and continuous cohorts (SHR 0.94; 0.42-2.14). Conclusion: Our data suggest significant inequalities in anti-coagulation prescribing, with substantial opportunity to improve initiation and continuation. Decision-making should be patient-centred and must recognize that discontinuation or cessation is associated with considerable thromboembolic risk not offset by mitigated bleeding risk.