RESUMEN
Geostatistics is used in this work to make inferences about the presence of the species of Biomphalaria (B. glabrata, B. tenagophila and/or B. straminea), intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni, at the São Francisco River Basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. One of these geostatistical procedures, known as indicator kriging, allows the classification of categorical data, in areas where the data are not available, using a punctual sample set. The result is a map of species and risk area definition. More than a single map of the categorical attribute, the procedure also permits the association of uncertainties of the stochastic model, which can be used to qualify the inferences. In order to validate the estimated data of the risk map, a fieldwork in five municipalities was carried out. The obtained results showed that indicator kriging is a rather robust tool since it presented a very good agreement with the field findings. The obtained risk map can be thought as an auxiliary tool to formulate proper public health strategies, and to guide other fieldwork, considering the places with higher occurrence probability of the most important snail species. Also, the risk map will enable better resource distribution and adequate policies for the mollusk control. This methodology will be applied to other river basins to generate a predictive map for Biomphalaria species distribution for the entire state of Minas Gerais.
Asunto(s)
Biomphalaria , Reservorios de Enfermedades , Animales , Brasil , DemografíaRESUMEN
The influence of climate and environmental variables to the distribution of schistosomiasis has been assessed in several previous studies. Also Geographical Information System (GIS), is a tool that has been recently tested for better understanding the spatial disease distribution. The objective of this paper is to further develop the GIS technology for modeling and control of schistosomiasis using meteorological and social variables and introducing new potential environmental-related variables, particularly those produced by recently launched orbital sensors like the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Three different scenarios have been analyzed, and despite of not quite large determination factor, the standard deviation of risk estimates was considered adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected as important for modeling purposes was topographic elevation, summer minimum temperature, the NDVI vegetation index, and the social index HDI91.
Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Esquistosomiasis/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Clima , Sistemas de Información Geográfica , Geografía , Humanos , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.
Asunto(s)
Animales , Humanos , Esquistosomiasis/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Sistemas de Información Geográfica , Prevalencia , Análisis de Regresión , Estaciones del Año , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.