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Environmental management often requires making decisions despite system uncertainty. One such example is mudflat mediation in flood control reservoirs. Reservoir mudflats limit development of diverse fish assemblages due to the lack of structural habitat provided by plants. Seeding mudflats with agricultural plants may mimic floodplain wetlands once inundated and provide fish habitat and achieve habitat management objectives. However, planting success is uncertain because of unpredictable water level fluctuations that affect plant survival and growth. Decision support tools can account for uncertainty that influences decision outcomes and reduce the risk in reservoir mudflat planting decisions. We used Bayesian decision networks and sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainty surrounding mudflat plantings as supplemental fish habitat in four northwest Mississippi reservoirs. When averaged across all uncertainty, planting was the optimal decision only in Enid Lake. Response profiles indicated planting decisions depended on elevation contours within Enid, Sardis, and Grenada reservoirs. No planting was optimal at all elevations for Arkabutla Lake. These results provide a quantified basis for establishing best management practices and identify key system states that influence decision outcomes. The process used in this study to evaluate planting decisions can be applied to any reservoir by modifying reservoir dependent inputs to evaluate planting decisions to provide supplemental fish habitat.

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Populations show spatial-temporal fluctuations in abundance, partly due to random processes and partly due to self-regulatory processes. We evaluated the effects of various external factors on the population numerical abundance of curimba Prochilodus lineatus in the upper Paraná River floodplain, Brazil, over a 19-year period. Panel data analysis was applied to examine the structure of temporal and spatial abundance while controlling auto-regressive processes and spatial non-homogeneity variances that often obscure relationships. As sources of population variation, we considered predation, competition, selected abiotic variables, construction of a dam upstream of the study area, water level and flood intensity during the spawning period. We found that biological interactions (predation and competition) were not significantly related to variations in curimba abundance; specific conductance was a space indicator of abundance, apparently linked to the biology of the species; intensity of floods determined inter-annual variation in abundances; Porto Primavera Dam negatively impacted the abundances at sites in the floodplain directly affected by discharges from the dam. Panel data analysis was a powerful tool that identified the need for intense flooding to maintain high abundances of curimba in the upper Paraná River. We believe our results apply to other species with similar life strategy.(AU)

As populações apresentam flutuações espaço-temporais em abundância devido a processos aleatórios e auto-regulatórios. Nesse trabalho avaliamos efeitos de vários fatores sobre a abundância da curimba, Prochilodus lineatus, em cinco ambientes da planície de inundação do alto rio Paraná, Brasil, durante 19 anos. A análise de dados em painel foi utilizada por examinar variações espaço-temporais na abundância considerando processos auto-regressivos e variâncias espacialmente heterogêneas, que por vezes dificultam a identificação das relações. Como fontes de variação na abundância da curimba foram consideradas: predação, competição, variáveis abióticas selecionadas, construção da barragem de Porto Primavera, nível da água do rio Paraná e intensidade de cheia no período reprodutivo. Foi identificado que predação e competição não foram significativamente associadas às abundâncias da curimba; condutividade específica foi indicadora espacial da abundância; intensidade das cheias foi determinante de variações interanuais na abundância; barragem de Porto Primavera influenciou, negativamente, a abundância em corpos d'água diretamente afetados. A análise de dados em painel mostrou ser uma poderosa ferramenta preditiva, que possibilitou identificar a necessidade de cheias intensas para manutenção de elevadas abundâncias de curimba no alto rio Paraná. Acreditamos que o mesmo seja válido espécies de peixes que apresentam estratégia de vida similar.(AU)

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Fish habitat impairment resulting from natural and anthropogenic watershed and in-lake processes has in many cases reduced the ability of reservoirs to sustain native fish assemblages and fisheries quality. Rehabilitation of impaired reservoirs is hindered by the lack of a method suitable for scoring impairment status. To address this limitation, an index of reservoir habitat impairment (IRHI) was developed by merging 14 metrics descriptive of common impairment sources, with each metric scored from 0 (no impairment) to 5 (high impairment) by fisheries scientists with local knowledge. With a plausible range of 5 to 25, distribution of the IRHI scores ranged from 5 to 23 over 482 randomly selected reservoirs dispersed throughout the USA. The IRHI reflected five impairment factors including siltation, structural habitat, eutrophication, water regime, and aquatic plants. The factors were weakly related to key reservoir characteristics including reservoir area, depth, age, and use type, suggesting that common reservoir descriptors are poor predictors of fish habitat impairment. The IRHI is rapid and inexpensive to calculate, provides an easily understood measure of the overall habitat impairment, allows comparison of reservoirs and therefore prioritization of restoration activities, and may be used to track restoration progress. The major limitation of the IRHI is its reliance on unstandardized professional judgment rather than standardized empirical measurements.

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