RESUMEN
Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir hosts and affects host-pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at the regional and local scale. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.
Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ecosistema , Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno , Factores Socioeconómicos , Zoonosis/epidemiología , Animales , Interacciones Huésped-Parásitos , Humanos , Enfermedades de los Roedores/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Hantaviruses, causal agents of the potentially lethal hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, have widely distributed rodent hosts. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we tested blood from 398 wild rodents captured in eastern New Mexico, US in 2015-17 and found 42 antibody-positive samples representing six genera.
Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Infecciones por Hantavirus/veterinaria , Orthohantavirus/inmunología , Enfermedades de los Roedores/virología , Roedores/sangre , Animales , Infecciones por Hantavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Hantavirus/virología , New Mexico/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Enfermedades de los Roedores/sangre , Enfermedades de los Roedores/epidemiología , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
Recent models suggest a relationship exists between community diversity and pathogen prevalence, the proportion of individuals in a population that are infected by a pathogen, with most inferences tied to assemblage structure. Two contrasting outcomes of this relationship have been proposed: the "dilution effect" and the "amplification effect." Small mammal assemblage structure in disturbed habitats often differs from assemblages in sylvan environments, and hantavirus prevalence is often negatively correlated with habitats containing high species diversity via dilution effect dynamics. As species richness increases, prevalence of infection often is decreased. However, anthropogenic changes to sylvan landscapes have been shown to decrease species richness and/or increase phylogenetic similarities within assemblages. Between January 2011 and January 2016, we captured and tested 2406 individual small mammals for hantavirus antibodies at 20 sites across Texas and México and compared differences in hantavirus seroprevalence, species composition, and assemblage structure between sylvan and disturbed habitats. We found 313 small mammals positive for antibodies against hantaviruses, evincing an overall prevalence of 9.7% across all sites. In total, 40 species of small mammals were identified comprising 2 taxonomic orders (Rodentia and Eulipotyphla). By sampling both habitat types concurrently, we were able to make real-world inferences into the efficacy of dilution effect theory in terms of hantavirus ecology. Our hypothesis predicting greater species richness higher in sylvan habitats compared to disturbed areas was not supported, suggesting the characteristics of assemblage structure do not adhere to current conceptions of species richness negatively influencing prevalence via a dilution effect.