RESUMEN
PIP: This paper presents a detailed discussion of the impact of World War II on subsequent fertility behavior a generation later in Italy. The changes in fertility were delayed and induced by a transgenerational process precipitated by war. War anomie and anomie in the rules of family formation are "symptoms" and not effects of the broad structural changes and historical upheavals during the 30 years of war. Fertility behavior is not construed to be an inevitable outcome of causal processes, but as alternative responses to life situations. The author bases this explanatory model of macrodemographic processes on a variant of Brown and Harris' etiological model that explains the occurrence of depression. It is argued that demographic models of European fertility are needed that acknowledge "a radical form of war that acts on reciprocity systems susceptible to change" and "intervenes to modify the subsequent transgenerational (family) relations." A research design is not now available that relies on the tools of history and anthropology. Thus, the demography of fertility may be reduced to a "mere bookkeeping of vital statistical data or simple economics of resources." The author's new pattern of family formation in Italy considers the "regional family culture and structure to be symptom-formation factors relating to the war and transformations in systems of family relations and exchange." These family changes are linked to war anomie and "changes in the logic of transition strategies from suppression to disconfirmation." War anomie is linked with a generational impact that intervenes in the relationship between changes in the logic of transition strategies and the decline in births. The decline in births is the response to background factors, precipitating events, and symptom-formation or structural factors. The author states that the second demographic transition does not represent a break with prior urban lifestyles and does not modify general trends continuing from the first demographic transition.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Composición Familiar , Familia , Fertilidad , Estilo de Vida , Modelos Teóricos , Dinámica Poblacional , Psicología , Ajuste Social , Cambio Social , Valores Sociales , Guerra , Conducta , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Italia , Política , Población , Investigación , Conducta SocialRESUMEN
"Using anomalies of the Italian case as the basis, the aim of this article is to verify how the theoretical framework [of demographic transition] put forward by Lesthaeghe can be interpreted.... While the changes in mores in the Italy of the economic boom were a component of the large-scale processes of secularization, rationalization and modernization specific to the [first demographic transition], the practices, values and models of the collective imagination characterizing the second phase of Lesthaeghe's [second demographic transition] are marked by a state of mind that cannot be put down to the 'spirit of the age' during the years of large-scale modernization, but to the emancipatory and 'rational' falling away of many of the barriers to the unfolding of individual life destiny over and above that based on class, gender and age."
Asunto(s)
Economía , Modelos Teóricos , Dinámica Poblacional , Cambio Social , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Italia , Población , Ciencias SocialesRESUMEN
"This paper investigates the logical consistency of the mathematical models used in the analysis of fertility fluctuations since the end of [the] demographic transition. Two main families of models may be distinguished: those related to demographic 'cinematics', including the well known Easterlin model; and those related to the 'dynamics' of the reproduction system, among which Volterra's prey-predator model takes a particular place. The possibilities of operationalizing the latter model are also discussed." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)
Asunto(s)
Economía , Fertilidad , Análisis de Fourier , Modelos Teóricos , Demografía , Población , Dinámica Poblacional , InvestigaciónRESUMEN
PIP: The Easterlin theory, popular during the 1970s, explained population fluctuations in terms of maximization of choice, based on the evaluation of previously acquired information. Fluctuations in procreational patterns were seen as responses to conflict between 2 consecutive generations in which the propensity to procreate is inversely related to cohort size. However, the number of demographic trends not directly explainable by the hypothesis imply that either the model must be extended over a longer time frame or that there has been a drastic change of regime, i.e., a basic change in popular attitudes which determine decision making behavior. 4 strategic principles underlie reproductive decisions: primary adaptation, economic utility, norm internalization, and identity reinforcement. The decision-making process is determined by the relative importance of these 4 principles. Primary adaptation implies inertia, i.e., nondecision. Economic utility implies the use of rational choice to maximize economic gain. Norm internalization implies conforming to the behavior of one's sociocultural peers as if it were one's own choice. Identity reinforcement implies that one decides to reproduce because procreation is a way of extending one's identity forward in time. The 2 active decision-making attitudes, economic rationality and identity reinforcement, are strategically both antagonistic and complementary. This polarity of behavior lends itself to analysis in terms of the predator-prey model, in which population is seen as the predator and resources as the prey. However, in applying the model, one must keep in mind that the real demographic picture is not static and that it is subject to deformation by external forces.^ieng