RESUMEN
This study aims to predict the potential for secondary lead recovery from motorcycle batteries in Brazil, since this is considered the second largest category of automobiles in the country. To achieve this objective, a forecasting model based on the ARIMA methodology was applied, with input data taken from Brazilian sectorial platforms. Furthermore, an analysis of the data, of the residuals, autocorrelation tests, as well as Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Dickey-Fuller tests, were performed. The SARIMA model (3,1,0) (2,0,0)12 presented a better adaptation to the behavior of the series. The results showed that the amount of secondary lead obtained based on the forecast model will be 89,972,842.08 million tons between 2021 and 2030 (14 million tons of lead originated only from motorcycle LABs in 2021). These results show a possible insufficiency of the installed capacity to supply the amount of lead to be processed in the country, not to mention the LABs from other vehicles (light and heavy) and other emerging battery technologies from electric vehicles. In addition, an analysis was conducted on the importance of secondary lead for the economy and the dangers of illegal recycling in Brazil. In general, this study contributes to the understanding of the importance of secondary production of lead in Brazil, an important asset for a country that does not have sufficient primary production for its domestic demand. The findings may assist in several alternatives for the proper planning and management of the collection, disposal and recycling of lead, providing the Brazilian government with directions for the development of new policies related to lead recycling.
Asunto(s)
Motocicletas , Administración de Residuos , Brasil , Plomo , Suministros de Energía Eléctrica , Reciclaje/métodos , Predicción , Administración de Residuos/métodosRESUMEN
Lead acid battery (LAB) scrap management is an important issue both environmentally and economically. The recovery of lead from battery scrap leads to a reduction in negative impacts of lead mining, as well as making the battery production cycle environmentally friendly. This work aims to propose a forecasting model for lead generation from LAB scrap based on time series modeling that uses data regarding after-market of batteries and new batteries produced for new cars. In order to illustrate the applicability of the new proposal, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. The main results show that at least 1% of LAB scrap from light vehicles have unknown or improper destinations; the efficiency of the recycling process in Brazil is still low, resulting in lead losses close to 4.5%; the lack of a sectorial agreement between the official battery market and the government concerning the reverse logistics of LAB scrap leads to a lack of precise data on the amount of LAB scrap generated and its final destination. Moreover, the economic importance of lead recycling and logistics of the secondary market are also discussed, with a focus on the dangers of illegal recycling.