RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Fiscal policies are used to promote a healthier diet; however, there is still a call for real-world evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages. We aimed to evaluate the effect of an abrupt increase, of respectively 80 and 40%, in the excising Norwegian taxes on candy and beverages on volume sales of candy and soda. We expected sales to fall. METHODS: We analyzed electronic point of sale data covering approximately 98% of volume sales of grocery stores in Norway. In two pre-registered models with weekly (log-)sales of taxed candy and soda from 3884 individual stores, we modeled the difference between the jump (discontinuity) in the trend around the time of the increase in taxes and the corresponding jump in the trend in a control season from the previous years (Model 1). In addition, we modeled the difference between the intervention and the control season in their changes in average sales (Model 2). RESULTS: Model 1 showed a 6.1% (one-sided 95% CI: not applicable (NA), 23.4, p-value = 0.26) increase and a - 3.9% (95% CI: NA, 4.9, p-value = 0.23) reduction in the differences in the jump in the trends, for candy and soda, respectively. The second model showed a relative decrease of - 4.9% (95% CI: NA, 1.0, p-value = 0.08) in the average sales of candy and an increase of 1.5% (95% CI: NA, 5.0, p-value = 0.24) in sales of soda. Supplementary analyses suggested that the results were sensitive to clustering on the time dimension. CONCLUSIONS: When using two different quasi-experimental designs to model changes in volume sales of taxed candy and soda, we were not able to detect reductions in sales that coincided with an increase in the taxes. Variation across time makes it difficult to detect potentially small changes in sales even when using an entire country's worth of sales data on the level of individual stores. We speculate that the tax increases were too modest to affect the prices to alter sales sufficiently.
Asunto(s)
Dulces/economía , Bebidas Gaseosas/economía , Comercio/tendencias , Impuestos/estadística & datos numéricos , Política Fiscal , NoruegaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI) was established more than 10 years ago to estimate prevalence and monitor changes in overweight and obesity in children aged 6-9 years. Since then, there have been five rounds of data collection in more than 40 countries involving more than half a million children. To date, no comparative studies with data on severe childhood obesity from European countries have been published. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this work was to present the prevalence of severe obesity in school-aged children from 21 countries participating in COSI. METHOD: The data are from cross-sectional studies in 21 European WHO member states that took part in the first three COSI rounds of data collection (2007/2008, 2009/2010, 2012/2013). School-aged children were measured using standardized instruments and methodology. Children were classified as severely obese using the definitions provided by WHO and the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). Analyses overtime, by child's age and mother's educational level, were performed in a select group of countries. RESULTS: A total of 636,933 children were included in the analysis (323,648 boys and 313,285 girls). The prevalence of severe obesity varied greatly among countries, with higher values in Southern Europe. According to the WHO definition, severe obesity ranged from 1.0% in Swedish and Moldovan children (95% CI 0.7-1.3 and 0.7-1.5, respectively) to 5.5% (95% CI 4.9-6.1) in Maltese children. The prevalence was generally higher among boys compared to girls. The IOTF cut-offs lead to lower estimates, but confirm the differences among countries, and were more similar for both boys and girls. In many countries 1 in 4 obese children were severely obese. Applying the estimates of prevalence based on the WHO definition to the whole population of children aged 6-9 years in each country, around 398,000 children would be expected to be severely obese in the 21 European countries. The trend between 2007 and 2013 and the analysis by child's age did not show a clear pattern. Severe obesity was more common among children whose mother's educational level was lower. CONCLUSIONS: Severe obesity is a serious public health issue which affects a large number of children in Europe. Because of the impact on educational, health, social care, and economic systems, obesity needs to be addressed via a range of approaches from early prevention of overweight and obesity to treatment of those who need it.
Asunto(s)
Obesidad Mórbida/epidemiología , Obesidad Infantil/epidemiología , Instituciones Académicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Niño , Estudios Transversales , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Sobrepeso/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Estudiantes/estadística & datos numéricos , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
The goal was to find out whether much of the variation in mortality between the 430 Norwegian municipalities could be attributed to socio-demographic characteristics of the population - operating through individual- or aggregate-level mechanisms. Two-level discrete-time hazard models were estimated for women and men at age 60-89 in 2000-2008, using registers covering the entire population. Year, age and a municipality-level random term were included in the first step. When socio-demographic characteristics of the individual and others in the municipality were added, the variance of the random term was reduced by 73-80% almost exclusively because of aggregate-level effects. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.
Asunto(s)
Mortalidad , Factores Socioeconómicos , Salud Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Ciudades , Femenino , Geografía , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Noruega/epidemiología , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The basis for this study is the fact that instrument error increases the variance of the distribution of body mass index (BMI). Combined with a defined cut-off value this may impact upon the estimated proportion of overweight and obesity. It is important to ensure high quality surveillance data in order to follow trends of estimated prevalence of overweight and obesity. The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of instrument error, due to uncalibrated scales and stadiometers, on prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity. METHODS: Anthropometric measurements from a nationally representative sample were used; the Norwegian Child Growth study (NCG) of 3474 children. Each of the 127 participating schools received a reference weight and a reference length to determine the correction value. Correction value corresponds to instrument error and is the difference between the true value and the measured, uncorrected weight and height at local scales and stadiometers. Simulations were used to determine the expected implications of instrument errors. To systematically investigate this, the coefficient of variation (CV) of instrument error was used in the simulations and was increased successively. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the estimated prevalence of overweight and obesity increased systematically with the size of instrument error when the mean instrument error was zero. The estimated prevalence was 16.4% with no instrument error and was, on average, overestimated by 0.5 percentage points based on observed variance of instrument error from the NCG-study. Further, the estimated prevalence was 16.7% with 1% CV of instrument error, and increased to 17.8%, 19.5% and 21.6% with 2%, 3% and 4% CV of instrument error, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Failure to calibrate measuring instruments is likely to lead to overestimation of the prevalence of overweight and obesity in population-based surveys.