RESUMEN
Since 2014, the stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) has been decimating corals in the Caribbean. Although the trigger of this outbreak remains elusive, evidence suggests waterborne sediment-mediated disease transmission. The outbreak reportedly initiated in September 2014 at a reef site off Virginia Key (VKR), during extensive dredging operations at the Port of Miami. Here we use a high-resolution ocean model to identify the potential driver of the outbreak by simulating the dispersal of dredged sediments, wastewater plumes and disease agents. Our results suggest that VKR could have been impacted by fine sediments produced by dredging operations, especially those involving non-conventional rock-chopping techniques. Wastewater contamination was unlikely. Additionally, our connectivity analysis indicates potential disease transmission from other affected reefs to VKR. Our results therefore suggest that dredging operations might be responsible for the onset of the epidemics. This underscores the need for stricter operational guidelines in future dredging projects.