RESUMEN
Although several studies have evaluated the role of body weight as a risk factor for mortality, most studies have been conducted in Western populations and the findings remain controversial. We performed a prospective study to examine the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality in Yinzhou District, Ningbo, China. At baseline, 384,533 subjects were recruited through the Yinzhou Health Information System between 2004 and 2009. The final analysis was restricted to 372,793 participants (178,333 men and 194,460 women) aged 18 years and older. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios(HRs) and 95% confidence intervals(CIs). We found an increased risk of all-cause mortality among individuals with BMI levels <22.5-24.9, although several groups were not statistically significant-adjusted HRs for persons with BMIs of <15.0, 15.0-17.4, 17.5-19.9, and 20.0-22.4 were 1.61(95% CI: 1.17-2.23), 1.07(0.94-1.20), 1.04(0.98-1.10), 1.06(1.02-1.11), respectively. In the upper BMI range, subjects with BMIs of 25.0-34.9 had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluding smokers, those with prevalent chronic disease or those with less than four years of follow-up did not materially alter these results. Our findings provide evidence for an inverse association of BMI and mortality in this population.
Asunto(s)
Índice de Masa Corporal , Mortalidad , Adulto , Anciano , China/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum. METHODS: This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020. RESULTS: After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend. CONCLUSIONS: The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.