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BACKGROUND: People approaching end of life account disproportionately for health care costs, and the majority of these costs accrue in hospitals. The economic evidence base to improve value of care to this population is thin. Natural experiment methods may be helpful in bridging evidence gaps with credible causal estimates from routine data, but these methods have seldom been applied in this field. This study aimed to evaluate the association between timely palliative care consultation and length of stay for adults with serious illness admitted to acute hospital in Ireland. METHODS: In primary analysis we evaluated if timely palliative care receipt following emergency hospital inpatient admission impacted length of stay (LOS); in secondary analysis we verified if palliative medicine service (PMS) implementation co-occurred with any changes in in-hospital mortality, and we estimated cost differences associated with any change in LOS. This was a secondary analysis on routinely collected data for acute admissions to public hospitals in Ireland. We used difference-in-differences analysis to exploit the staggered implementation of PMS teams at acute public hospitals in Ireland between 2010 and 2015. We identified palliative care receipt following PMS implementation using ICD-10 codes, and we matched admissions involving a palliative care interaction to admissions in years prior to PMS implementation using propensity score weights. RESULTS: Our primary analytic sample included 4,314 observations, of whom 608 (14%) received timely palliative care. We estimated that the intervention reduced LOS by nearly two days, with an estimated associated saving per admission of €1,820. These analyses were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses on regression specification, weighting strategy and site selection. Proportion of admissions ending in death did not change following PMS implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Prompt interaction between suitable patients and palliative care can improve the quality and efficiency of care to this population. Many patients receive palliative care later in the hospital stay, which does not yield cost-savings. Future studies can extend and strengthen our approach with better data, as well as using different methods to understand how to trigger palliative care early in a hospital admission and realise available gains.

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Background: Reliable data on health care costs in Ireland are essential to support planning and evaluation of services. New unit costs and high-quality utilisation data offer the opportunity to estimate individual-level costs for research and policy. Methods: Our main dataset was The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We used participant interviews with those aged 55+ years in Wave 5 (2018) and all end-of-life interviews (EOLI) to February 2020. We weighted observations by age, sex and last year of life at the population level. We estimated total formal health care costs by combining reported usage in TILDA with unit costs (non-acute care) and public payer reimbursement data (acute hospital admissions, medications). All costs were adjusted for inflation to 2022, the year of analysis. We examined distribution of estimates across the population, and the composition of costs across categories of care, using descriptive statistics. We identified factors associated with total costs using generalised linear models. Results: There were 5,105 Wave 5 observations, equivalent at the population level to 1,207,660 people aged 55+ years and not in the last year of life, and 763 EOLI observations, equivalent to 28,466 people aged 55+ years in the last year of life. Mean formal health care costs in the weighted sample were EUR 8,053; EUR 6,624 not in the last year of life and EUR 68,654 in the last year of life. Overall, 90% of health care costs were accounted for by 20% of users. Multiple functional limitations and proximity to death were the largest predictors of costs. Other factors that were associated with outcome included educational attainment, entitlements to subsidised care and serious chronic diseases. Conclusions: Understanding the patterns of costs, and the factors associated with very high costs for some individuals, can inform efforts to improve patient experiences and optimise resource allocation.

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Background: Demographic ageing is a population health success story but poses unprecedented policy challenges in the 21st century. Policymakers must prepare health systems, economies and societies for these challenges. Policy choices can be usefully informed by models that evaluate outcomes and trade-offs in advance under different scenarios. Methods: We developed a dynamic demographic-economic microsimulation model for the population aged 50 and over in Ireland: the Irish Future Older Adults Model (IFOAM).  Our principal dataset was The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We employed first-order Markovian competing risks models to estimate transition probabilities of TILDA participants to different outcomes: diagnosis of serious diseases, functional limitations, risk-modifying behaviours, health care use and mortality. We combined transition probabilities with the characteristics of the stock population to estimate biennial changes in outcome state.   Results: IFOAM projections estimated large annual increases in total deaths, in the number of people living and dying with serious illness and functional impairment, and in demand for hospital care between 2018 and 2040.  The most important driver of these increases is the rising absolute number of older people in Ireland as the population ages. The increasing proportion of older old and oldest old citizens is projected to increase the average prevalence of chronic conditions and functional limitations. We deemed internal validity to be good but lacked external benchmarks for validation and corroboration of most outcomes. Conclusion: We have developed and validated a microsimulation model that projects health and related outcomes among older people in Ireland.  Future research should address identified policy questions. The model enhances the capacity of researchers and policymakers to quantitatively forecast health and economic dynamics among older people in Ireland, to evaluate ex ante policy responses to these dynamics, and to collaborate internationally on global challenges associated with demographic ageing.

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International evidence shows that people approaching end of life (EOL) have high prevalence of polypharmacy, including overprescribing. Overprescribing may have adverse side effects for mental and physical health and represents wasteful spending. Little is known about prescribing near EOL in Ireland. We aimed to describe the prevalence of two undesirable outcomes, and to identify factors associated with these outcomes: potentially questionable prescribing, and potentially inadequate prescribing, in the last year of life (LYOL). We used The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a biennial nationally representative dataset on people aged 50+ in Ireland. We analysed a sub-sample of participants with high mortality risk and categorised their self-reported medication use as potentially questionable or potentially inadequate based on previous research. We identified mortality through the national death registry (died in <365 days versus not). We used descriptive statistics to quantify prevalence of our outcomes, and we used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with these outcomes. Of 525 observations, 401 (76%) had potentially inadequate and 294 (56%) potentially questionable medications. Of the 401 participants with potentially inadequate medications, 42 were in their LYOL. OF the 294 participants with potentially questionable medications, 26 were in their LYOL. One factor was significantly associated with potentially inadequate medications in LYOL: male (odds ratio (OR) 4.40, p = .004) Three factors were associated with potentially questionable medications in LYOL: male (OR 3.37, p = .002); three or more activities of daily living (ADLs) (OR 3.97, p = .003); and outpatient hospital visits (OR 1.03, p = .02). Thousands of older people die annually in Ireland with potentially inappropriate or questionable prescribing patterns. Gender differences for these outcomes are very large. Further work is needed to identify and reduce overprescribing near EOL in Ireland, particularly among men.

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OBJECTIVES: Policymakers want to better identify in advance the 10% of people who account for approximately 75% of health care costs. We evaluated how well Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) predicted high costs in Ireland. METHODS/DESIGN: We used five waves from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a biennial population-representative survey of people aged 50+ (2010-2018). We used competing risks analysis where our outcome of interest was "high costs" (top 10% at any wave) and the competing outcome was dying or loss to follow-up without first having the high-cost outcome. Our binary predictors of interest were a 'low score' (bottom 10% in the sample) in MMSE (≤25 pts) and MoCA (≤19 pts) at baseline, and we calculated sub-hazard ratios after controlling for sociodemographic, clinical and functional factors. RESULTS: Of 5856 participants, 1427 (24%) had the 'high cost' outcome; 1463 (25%) had a competing outcome; and 2966 (51%) completed eight years of follow-up without either outcome. In multivariable regressions a low MoCA score was associated with high costs (SHR: 1.38 (95% CI: 1.2-1.6) but a low MMSE score was not. Low MoCA score at baseline had a higher true positive rate (40%) than did low MMSE score (35%). The scores had similar association with exit from the study. CONCLUSIONS: MoCA had superior predictive accuracy for high costs than MMSE but the two scores identify somewhat different types of high-cost user. Combining the approaches may improve efforts to identify in advance high-cost users.

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OBJECTIVES: We aimed to replicate existing international (US and UK) mortality indices using Irish data. We developed and validated a four-year mortality index for adults aged 50 + in Ireland and compared performance with these international indices. We then extended this model by including additional predictors (self-report and healthcare utilization) and compared its performance to our replication model. METHODS: Eight thousand one hundred seventy-four participants in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were split for development (n = 4,121) and validation (n = 4,053). Six baseline predictor categories were examined (67 variables total): demographics; cardiovascular-related illness; non-cardiovascular illness; health and lifestyle variables; functional variables; self-report (wellbeing and social connectedness) and healthcare utilization. We identified variables independently associated with four-year mortality in the development cohort and attached these variables a weight according to strength of association. We summed the weights to calculate a single index score for each participant and evaluated predicted accuracy in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Our final 14-predictor (extended) model assigned risk points for: male (1pt); age (65-69: 2pts; 70-74: 4 pts; 75-79: 4pts; 80-84: 6pts; 85 + : 7pts); heart attack (1pt); cancer (3pts); smoked past age 30 (2pts); difficulty walking 100 m (2pts); difficulty using the toilet (3pts); difficulty lifting 10lbs (1pts); poor self-reported health (1pt); and hospital admission in previous year (1pt). Index discrimination was strong (ROC area = 0.78). DISCUSSION: Our index is predictive of four-year mortality in community-dwelling older Irish adults. Comparisons with the international indices show that our 12-predictor (replication) model performed well and suggests that generalisability is high. Our 14-predictor (extended) model showed modest improvements compared to the 12-predictor model.

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Most developed countries provide publicly-financed insurance for many health services for their populations although there is considerable variation across countries in the types of services covered, eligible population groups and whether co-payments are levied. The Irish healthcare system, with a complex mix of public and private financing of healthcare services, offers a useful case study for an examination of the impact of type of health insurance cover on population health. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which type of health insurance cover is associated with all-cause, cause-specific, and amenable mortality using data on a representative survey of the population aged 50+ from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) matched to administrative data on death registrations. The results show that those without public or private health insurance have a higher risk of all-cause and cancer mortality. However, there is no evidence that type of health insurance cover affects mortality risk from causes that are considered amenable to healthcare intervention, although this analysis was based on a much smaller sample size. This analysis provides important evidence for a country that is implementing reforms to its financing and delivery structures in order to move towards a system of universal healthcare.

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Women with a pathogenic variant in BRCA1/2 genes have up to an 87% lifetime risk of breast cancer and up to a 68% lifetime risk for ovarian cancer. Common risk-reducing measures include prophylactic surgeries or pharmacological approaches, such as chemoprevention. Psycho-social issues can arise due to this increased risk, often resulting in heightened distress or anxiety. This review examines the efficacy of interventions aimed at improving psychological adjustment in individuals with a pathogenic variant in BRCA1/2. A Public and Patient Involvement (PPI) Panel of six individuals with a BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant provided input on the terminology used and dissemination of the review. Interventions assessing psychological measures in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers, published in English, were considered eligible for inclusion. A systematic search strategy was carried out on OVID, EBSCO, Cochrane Library, PubMed, Web of Science Core Collections, and Scopus. Two independent reviewers conducted screening, data extraction, risk of bias assessments, and theory coding. Findings were reported through narrative synthesis. Of the 1,024 results from searches, fifteen interventions were eligible. Nine of these were randomized controlled trials, six were quasi-experimental. There was heterogeneity in intervention design, with limited evidence of improvement upon psychological outcome measures. No study was rated as being low risk for bias. Five studies obtained the highest level of risk for bias, the majority of issues arising from problematic outcome measurement. No single study met all criteria on the Theory Coding Scheme, with five studies mentioning a theoretical aspect to intervention design, of which three employed a middle-range theory only. Some studies demonstrated a longitudinal impact on outcomes, however, there is insufficient evidence to draw broad conclusions from this. Further research is needed to better develop interventions to support those with a pathogenic variant in BRCA1/2 throughout their coping experience.

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Objective: Adherence to inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) is an essential part of asthma management throughout the lifespan; however, this may be particularly challenging during the transition into adulthood. This systematic review aimed to determine the prevalence and predictors of adherence to ICS in emerging adulthood.Data sources: MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Scopus, and CINAHL were searched with search terms for asthma, ICS, adherence, young adults, and predictors combined.Study selection: Studies with participants with diagnosed asthma, currently prescribed ICS, a mean age between 15 and 30 years and reporting the prevalence and/or assessing predictor(s) of adherence using quantitative methods were included.Results: Twenty-nine studies were identified for inclusion (K = 29, N = 187 401). A random effect meta-analysis revealed the pooled prevalence of adherence was 28% (95% CI = 20-38%, k = 16) in studies that provided quantitative information on adherence. Adherence was higher in studies with a mean age <18 years (36%; 95% CI = 36-37%, k = 4). Studies using self-report measures provided higher estimates of adherence (35%; 95% CI = 28-42%, k = 10) than studies using pharmacy refill data (20%; 95% CI = 9-38%, k = 6). A narrative review identified personality, illness perceptions, and treatment beliefs as potentially important predictors of adherence.Conclusion: Adherence is sub-optimal during emerging adulthood, particularly after age 18. More reliable and objective measures are needed to precisely characterize adherence. Greater research and practice attention to emerging adulthood are needed to guide self-management support in those living with asthma at this important lifespan stage.Systematic review registration number: CRD42018092401.

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