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Importance: Advancing precision psychiatry, where treatments are based on an individual's biology rather than solely their clinical presentation, requires attention to several key attributes for any candidate biomarker. These include test-retest reliability, sensitivity to relevant neurophysiology, cost-effectiveness, and scalability. Unfortunately, these issues have not been systematically addressed by biomarker development efforts that use common neuroimaging tools like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and electroencephalography (EEG). Here, the critical barriers that neuroimaging methods will need to overcome to achieve clinical relevance in the near to intermediate term are examined. Observations: Reliability is often overlooked, which together with sensitivity to key aspects of neurophysiology and replicated predictive utility, favors EEG-based methods. The principal barrier for EEG has been the lack of large-scale data collection among multisite psychiatric consortia. By contrast, despite its high reliability, structural MRI has not demonstrated clinical utility in psychiatry, which may be due to its limited sensitivity to psychiatry-relevant neurophysiology. Given the prevalence of structural MRIs, establishment of a compelling clinical use case remains its principal barrier. By contrast, low reliability and difficulty in standardizing collection are the principal barriers for functional MRI, along with the need for demonstration that its superior spatial resolution over EEG and ability to directly image subcortical regions in fact provide unique clinical value. Often missing, moreover, is consideration of how these various scientific issues can be balanced against practical economic realities of psychiatric health care delivery today, for which embedding economic modeling into biomarker development efforts may help direct research efforts. Conclusions and Relevance: EEG seems most ripe for near- to intermediate-term clinical impact, especially considering its scalability and cost-effectiveness. Recent efforts to broaden its collection, as well as development of low-cost turnkey systems, suggest a promising pathway by which neuroimaging can impact clinical care. Continued MRI research focused on its key barriers may hold promise for longer-horizon utility.

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BACKGROUND: Although the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) criteria are widely used to ascertain individuals at heightened risk for imminent onset of psychosis, it remains controversial whether CHR-P status define a diagnostic construct in its own right. In a prior study, CHR-P non-converters were observed to follow three distinct trajectories in symptoms and functioning: remission, partial remission, and maintenance of symptoms and functional impairments at subthreshold levels of intensity. METHODS: Here, we utilized the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study Phase 3 (NAPLS3) sample (N = 806) to determine whether: 1) the same trajectory groups can be detected when assessing symptoms at 2-month intervals over an 8-month period and 2) the resulting trajectory groups differ from each other and from healthy controls and converting CHR-P cases in terms of risk factors, comorbidities, and functional outcomes. RESULTS: Three distinctive subgroups within the CHR non-converters were identified, largely paralleling those previously observed. Importantly, these extracted groups, along with non-CHR controls and CHR converters, differ from each other significantly with respect to putative etiological risk factors (e.g., predicted risk scores, physiological and self-report measures of stress), affective comorbidities, as well as functional outcomes, providing converging evidence supporting the validity of the identified trajectory groups. CONCLUSIONS: This pattern, along with the fact that even the subgroup of CHR-P nonconverters showing a remission trajectory deviated from healthy controls, supports treating the CHR-P syndrome not just as a status that denotes risk for onset of full psychosis, but also as a marker of ongoing distress for a population in need of interventions.

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Insomnia and suicidal ideation (SI) are common in schizophrenia, including in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Previous studies have found associations between sleep disturbance, SI, and psychopathology in schizophrenia. We explored these associations in a CHR-P cohort. We leveraged data from CHR-P individuals in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies (NAPLS-3) (n = 688) cohort. We investigated relationships between sleep disturbance (Scale of Prodromal Symptoms [SOPS]; Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia [CDSS], and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index [PSQI]), suicidal ideation (CDSS), and psychosis-risk symptoms. The prevalence of terminal insomnia, sleep disturbance, and SI in NAPLS3 was 25 %, 69 %, and 29 %, respectively. After controlling for potential confounders, multiple indices of sleep disturbance (SOPS, PSQI: OR = 1.05-1.40) were significant indicators of concurrent SI. Terminal insomnia was not associated with conversion to psychosis. Multiple indices of sleep problems were associated with higher total and subscale psychosis-risk symptom scores (ß = 0.09-0.39). Sleep problems are prevalent and associated with SI and more severe psychosis-risk symptoms in CHR-P individuals. These findings underscore the importance of designing longitudinal intervention studies to investigate whether the treatment of sleep disturbances may reduce suicidality and symptoms in this population.

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Introduction: Schizophrenia is a mental health condition that severely impacts well-being. Cognitive impairment is among its core features, often presenting well before the onset of overt psychosis, underscoring a critical need to study it in the psychosis proneness (clinical high risk; CHR) stage, to maximize the benefits of interventions and to improve clinical outcomes. However, given the heterogeneity of cognitive impairment in this population, a one-size-fits-all approach to therapeutic interventions would likely be insufficient. Thus, identifying cognitive subtypes in this population is crucial for tailored and successful therapeutic interventions. Here we identify, validate, and characterize cognitive subtypes in large CHR samples and delineate their baseline and longitudinal cognitive and functional trajectories. Methods: Using machine learning, we performed cluster analysis on cognitive measures in a large sample of CHR youth (n = 764), and demographically comparable controls (HC; n = 280) from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) 2, and independently validated our findings with an equally large sample (NAPLS 3; n = 628 CHR, 84 HC). By utilizing several statistical approaches, we compared the clusters on cognition and functioning at baseline, and over 24 months of followup. We further delineate the conversion status within those clusters. Results: Two main cognitive clusters were identified, "impaired" and "intact" across all cognitive domains in CHR compared to HC. Baseline differences between the cognitively intact cluster and HC were found in the verbal abilities and attention and working memory domains. Longitudinally, those in the cognitively impaired cluster group demonstrated an overall floor effect and did not deteriorate further over time. However, a "catch up" trajectory was observed in the attention and working memory domain. This group had higher instances of conversion overall, with these converters having significantly more non-affective psychotic disorder diagnosis versus bipolar disorder, than those with intact cognition. In the cognitively intact group, we observed differences in trajectory based on conversion status, where those who start with intact cognition and later convert demonstrate a sharp decline in attention and functioning. Functioning was significantly better in the cognitively intact than in the impaired group at baseline. Most of the cognitive trajectories demonstrate a positive relationship with functional ones. Conclusion: Our findings provide evidence for intact and impaired cognitive subtypes in youth at CHR, independent of conversion status. They further indicate that attention and working memory are important to distinguish between the CHR with intact cognition and controls. The cognitively intact CHR group becomes less attentive after conversion, while the cognitively impaired one demonstrates a catch up trajectory on both attention and working memory. Overall, early evaluation, covering several cognitive domains, is crucial for identifying trajectories of improvement and deterioration for the purpose of tailoring intervention for improving outcomes in individuals at CHR for psychosis.

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Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) are characterized by substantial clinical and genetic heterogeneity. Multiple recurrent copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for SSDs; however, how known risk CNVs and broader genome-wide CNVs influence clinical variability is unclear. The current study examined associations between borderline intellectual functioning or childhood-onset psychosis, known risk CNVs, and burden of deletions affecting genes in 18 previously validated neurodevelopmental gene-sets in 618 SSD individuals. CNV associations were assessed for replication in 235 SSD relatives and 583 controls, and 9,930 youth from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. Known SSD- and neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD)-risk CNVs were associated with borderline intellectual functioning in SSD cases (odds ratios (OR) = 7.09 and 4.57, respectively); NDD-risk deletions were nominally associated with childhood-onset psychosis (OR = 4.34). Furthermore, deletion of genes involved in regulating gene expression during fetal brain development was associated with borderline intellectual functioning across SSD cases and non-cases (OR = 2.58), with partial replication in the ABCD cohort. Exploratory analyses of cortical morphology showed associations between fetal gene regulatory gene deletions and altered gray matter volume and cortical thickness across cohorts. Results highlight contributions of known risk CNVs to phenotypic variability in SSD and the utility of a neurodevelopmental framework for identifying mechanisms that influence phenotypic variability in SSDs, as well as the broader population, with implications for personalized medicine approaches to care.

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BACKGROUND: 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome (22qDel) is a copy number variant (CNV) associated with psychosis and other neurodevelopmental disorders. Adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) are identified based on the presence of subthreshold psychosis symptoms. Whether common neural substrates underlie these distinct high-risk populations is unknown. We compared functional brain measures in 22qDel and CHR cohorts and mapped results to biological pathways. METHODS: We analyzed two large multi-site cohorts with resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI): 1) 22qDel (n=164, 47% female) and typically developing (TD) controls (n=134, 56% female); 2) CHR individuals (n=244, 41% female) and TD controls (n=151, 46% female) from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-2. We computed global brain connectivity (GBC), local connectivity (LC), and brain signal variability (BSV) across cortical regions, testing case-control differences for 22qDel and CHR separately. Group difference maps were related to published brain maps using autocorrelation-preserving permutation. RESULTS: BSV, LC, and GBC are significantly disrupted in 22qDel compared with TD controls (False Discovery Rate q<0.05). Spatial maps of BSV and LC differences are highly correlated with each other, unlike GBC. In CHR, only LC is significantly altered versus controls, with a different spatial pattern compared to 22qDel. Group differences map onto biological gradients, with 22qDel effects strongest in regions with high predicted blood flow and metabolism. CONCLUSION: 22qDel and CHR exhibit divergent effects on fMRI temporal variability and multi-scale functional connectivity. In 22qDel, strong and convergent disruptions in BSV and LC not seen in CHR individuals suggest distinct functional brain alterations.

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The prodromal phase of schizophrenia provides an optimal opportunity to mitigate the profound functional disability that is often associated with fully expressed psychosis. Considerable evidence supports the importance of neurocognition in the development of interpersonal (social) and academic (role) skills. Further findings from adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk for developing psychosis (CHRP) suggest that treatment for functioning might be most effective when targeting early and specific neurocognitive deficits. The current study addresses this critical intervention issue by examining the potential of neurocognitive deficits at intake for predicting social and role functioning over time in CHR-P youth. The study included 345 CHR-P participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) with baseline neurocognition and 2-year follow-up data on social and role functioning. Slower baseline processing speed consistently predicted poor social functioning over time, while attention deficits predicted poor role functioning at baseline and follow-up. In addition, the impact of processing speed and attention impairments on social and role functioning, respectively, persisted even when adjusting the regression models for attenuated positive, negative, and disorganized symptoms, and transition status. The current study demonstrates for, arguably the first time, that processing speed and attention are strongly predictive of social and role functioning over time, respectively, above and beyond the impact of symptoms and those CHR-P individuals that develop psychosis over the course of the study. These findings imply that early neurocognition is a critical treatment target linked to the developmental trajectory of social and role functioning.

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Sex differences have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia and for those at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. However, specific differences in CHR individuals who transition to psychosis remain inconsistent and understudied. This study aimed to investigate sex differences in 156 CHR individuals who made the transition to psychosis. A wide range of demographics, positive and negative symptoms, depression, anxiety, social and role functioning, trauma, and substance use were assessed at baseline and symptoms and diagnoses at the time of transition. Fluctuations in positive and negative symptoms and different medications were also assessed. No sex differences were observed at baseline for those who later transitioned to psychosis. At transition, males were significantly more likely to be diagnosed as having schizophrenia or schizophreniform disorder and through the course of the study, males were more likely to be taking stimulants. Limitations in this study was the lack of longitudinal follow-up post transition. The study highlights the need for further research on sex differences in individuals who transition to psychosis. Understanding these differences can have implications for treatment and monitoring of CHR individuals.

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Schizophrenia (SZ) patients exhibit abnormal static and dynamic functional connectivity across various brain domains. We present a novel approach based on static and dynamic inter-network connectivity entropy (ICE), which represents the entropy of a given network's connectivity to all the other brain networks. This novel approach enables the investigation of how connectivity strength is heterogeneously distributed across available targets in both SZ patients and healthy controls. We analyzed fMRI data from 151 schizophrenia patients and demographically matched 160 healthy controls. Our assessment encompassed both static and dynamic ICE, revealing significant differences in the heterogeneity of connectivity levels across available brain networks between SZ patients and healthy controls (HC). These networks are associated with subcortical (SC), auditory (AUD), sensorimotor (SM), visual (VIS), cognitive control (CC), default mode network (DMN) and cerebellar (CB) functional brain domains. Elevated ICE observed in individuals with SZ suggests that patients exhibit significantly higher randomness in the distribution of time-varying connectivity strength across functional regions from each source network, compared to healthy control group. C-means fuzzy clustering analysis of functional ICE correlation matrices revealed that SZ patients exhibit significantly higher occupancy weights in clusters with weak, low-scale functional entropy correlation, while the control group shows greater occupancy weights in clusters with strong, large-scale functional entropy correlation. k-means clustering analysis on time-indexed ICE vectors revealed that cluster with highest ICE have higher occupancy rates in SZ patients whereas clusters characterized by lowest ICE have larger occupancy rates for control group. Furthermore, our dynamic ICE approach revealed that it appears healthy for a brain to primarily circulate through complex, less structured connectivity patterns, with occasional transitions into more focused patterns. However, individuals with SZ seem to struggle with transiently attaining these more focused and structured connectivity patterns. Proposed ICE measure presents a novel framework for gaining deeper insights into understanding mechanisms of healthy and disease brain states and a substantial step forward in the developing advanced methods of diagnostics of mental health conditions.

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Recent neuroimaging studies and publicly disseminated analytic tools suggest that regional morphometric analyses covary for global thickness. We empirically demonstrated that this statistical approach severely underestimates regional thickness dysmorphology in psychiatric disorders. Study 1 included 90 healthy control participants, 51 participants at clinical high risk for psychosis, and 78 participants with early-illness schizophrenia. Study 2 included 56 healthy control participants, 83 participants with nonaffective psychosis, and 30 participants with affective psychosis. We examined global and regional thickness correlations, global thickness group differences, and regional thickness group differences with and without global thickness covariation. Global and regional thickness were strongly correlated across groups. Global thickness was lower in the schizophrenia spectrum groups than the other groups. Regional thickness deficits in schizophrenia spectrum groups were attenuated or eliminated with global thickness covariation. Eliminating the variation that regional thickness shares with global thickness eliminated disease-related effects. This statistical approach results in erroneous conclusions that regional thickness is normal in disorders like schizophrenia or clinical high risk syndrome.

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Schizophrenia is associated with robust white matter (WM) abnormalities but influences of potentially confounding variables and relationships with cognitive performance and symptom severity remain to be fully determined. This study was designed to evaluate WM abnormalities based on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in individuals with schizophrenia, and their relationships with cognitive performance and symptom severity. Data from individuals with schizophrenia (SZ; n=138, mean age±SD=39.02±11.82; 105 males) and healthy controls (HC; n=143, mean age±SD=37.07±10.84; 102 males) were collected as part of the Function Biomedical Informatics Research Network Phase 3 study. Fractional anisotropy (FA), axial diffusivity (AD), radial diffusivity (RD), and mean diffusivity (MD) were compared between individuals with schizophrenia and healthy controls, and their relationships with neurocognitive performance and symptomatology assessed. Individuals with SZ had significantly lower FA in forceps minor and the left inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus compared to HC. FA in several tracts were associated with speed of processing and attention/vigilance and the severity of the negative symptom alogia. This study suggests that regional WM abnormalities are fundamentally involved in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and may contribute to cognitive performance deficits and symptom expression observed in schizophrenia.

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BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Brain development/aging is not uniform across individuals, spawning efforts to characterize brain age from a biological perspective to model the effects of disease and maladaptive life processes on the brain. The brain age gap represents the discrepancy between estimated brain biological age and chronological age (in this case, based on structural magnetic resonance imaging, MRI). Structural MRI studies report an increased brain age gap (biological age > chronological age) in schizophrenia, with a greater brain age gap related to greater negative symptom severity. Less is known regarding the nature of this gap early in schizophrenia (ESZ), if this gap represents a psychosis conversion biomarker in clinical high-risk (CHR-P) individuals, and how altered brain development and/or aging map onto specific symptom facets. STUDY DESIGN: Using structural MRI, we compared the brain age gap among CHR-P (n = 51), ESZ (n = 78), and unaffected comparison participants (UCP; n = 90), and examined associations with CHR-P psychosis conversion (CHR-P converters n = 10; CHR-P non-converters; n = 23) and positive and negative symptoms. STUDY RESULTS: ESZ showed a greater brain age gap relative to UCP and CHR-P (Ps < .010). CHR-P individuals who converted to psychosis showed a greater brain age gap (P = .043) relative to CHR-P non-converters. A larger brain age gap in ESZ was associated with increased experiential (P = .008), but not expressive negative symptom severity. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with schizophrenia pathophysiological models positing abnormal brain maturation, results suggest abnormal brain development is present early in psychosis. An increased brain age gap may be especially relevant to motivational and functional deficits in schizophrenia.

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BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Social and academic adjustment deteriorate in the years preceding a psychotic disorder diagnosis. Analyses of premorbid adjustment have recently been extended into the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) syndrome to identify risk factors and developmental pathways toward psychotic disorders. Work so far has been at the between-person level, which has constrained analyses of premorbid adjustment, clinical covariates, and conversion to psychosis. STUDY DESIGN: Growth-curve models examined longitudinal trajectories in retrospective reports of premorbid social and academic adjustment from youth at CHR (n = 498). Interaction models tested whether known covariates of premorbid adjustment problems (attenuated negative symptoms, cognition, and childhood trauma) were associated with different premorbid adjustment trajectories in converters vs non-converters (ie, participants who did/did not develop psychotic disorders within 2-year follow-up). STUDY RESULTS: Converters reported poorer social adjustment throughout the premorbid period. Converters who developed psychosis with an affective component reported poorer academic adjustment throughout the premorbid period than those who developed non-affective psychosis. Tentatively, baseline attenuated negative symptoms may have been associated with worsening social adjustment in the premorbid period for non-converters only. Childhood trauma impact was associated with fewer academic functioning problems among converters. Cognition effects did not differ based on conversion status. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid social function is an important factor in risk for conversion to psychosis. Negative symptoms and childhood trauma had different relationships to premorbid functioning in converters vs non-converters. Mechanisms linking symptoms and trauma to functional impairment may be different in converters vs non-converters, suggesting possible new avenues for risk assessment.

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BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and other assessments of psychosis risk define clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) by the presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms. Despite extensive research on attenuated psychotic symptoms, substantial questions remain about their internal psychometric structure and relationships to comorbid non-psychotic symptoms. STUDY DESIGN: Hierarchical and bifactor models were developed for the SIPS in a large CHR sample (NAPLS-3, N = 787) and confirmed through preregistered replication in an independent sample (NAPLS-2, N = 1043). Criterion validity was tested through relationships with CHR status, comorbid symptoms/diagnoses, functional impairment, demographics, neurocognition, and conversion to psychotic disorders. STUDY RESULTS: Most variance in SIPS items (75%-77%) was attributable to a general factor. Hierarchical and bifactor models included a general factor and five specific/lower-order factors (positive symptoms, eccentricity, avolition, lack of emotion, and deteriorated thought process). CHR participants were elevated on the general factor and the positive symptoms factor. The general factor was associated with depressive symptoms; functional impairment; and mood, anxiety, and schizotypal personality diagnoses. The general factor was the best predictor of psychotic disorders (d ≥ 0.50). Positive symptoms and eccentricity had specific effects on conversion outcomes. The deteriorated thought process was least meaningful/replicable. CONCLUSIONS: Attenuated psychotic symptoms, measured by the SIPS, have a complex hierarchical structure with a strong general factor. The general factor relates to internalizing symptoms and functional impairment, emphasizing the roles of general psychopathological distress/impairment in psychosis risk. Shared symptom variance complicates the interpretation of raw symptom scores. Broad transdiagnostic assessment is warranted to model psychosis risk accurately.

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Resting state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is a popular and widely used technique to explore the brain's functional organization and to examine if it is altered in neurological or mental disorders. The most common approach for its analysis targets the measurement of the synchronized fluctuations between brain regions, characterized as functional connectivity (FC), typically relying on pairwise correlations in activity across different brain regions. While hugely successful in exploring state- and disease-dependent network alterations, these statistical graph theory tools suffer from two key limitations. First, they discard useful information about the rich frequency content of the fMRI signal. The rich spectral information now achievable from advances in fast multiband acquisitions is consequently being under-utilized. Second, the analyzed FCs are phenomenological without a direct neurobiological underpinning in the underlying structures and processes in the brain. There does not currently exist a complete generative model framework for whole brain resting fMRI that is informed by its underlying biological basis in the structural connectome. Here we propose that a different approach can solve both challenges at once: the use of an appropriately realistic yet parsimonious biophysical signal generation model followed by graph spectral (i.e. eigen) decomposition. We call this model a Spectral Graph Model (SGM) for fMRI, using which we can not only quantify the structure-function relationship in individual subjects, but also condense the variable and individual-specific repertoire of fMRI signal's spectral and spatial features into a small number of biophysically-interpretable parameters. We expect this model-based inference of rs-fMRI that seamlessly integrates with structure can be used to examine state and trait characteristics of structure-function relations in a variety of brain disorders.

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INTRODUCTION: Negative symptoms impact the quality of life of individuals with psychosis and current treatment options for negative symptoms have limited effectiveness. Previous studies have demonstrated that complement and coagulation pathway protein levels are related to later psychotic experiences, psychotic disorder, and functioning. However, the prognostic relationship between complement and coagulation proteins and negative symptoms is poorly characterised. METHODS: In the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, negative symptoms in 431 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (mean age: 18.2, SD 3.6; 42.5 % female) were measured at multiple visits over 2 years using the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms. Plasma proteins were quantified at baseline using mass spectrometry. Four factors were derived to represent levels of proteins involved in the activation or regulation of the complement or coagulation systems. The relationships between standardised protein group factors and serial measurements of negative symptoms over time were modelled using generalised least squares regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline candidate prognostic factors: negative symptoms, positive symptoms, functioning, depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, cannabis use, tobacco use, antipsychotic use, antidepressant use, age, and sex. RESULTS: Clinical and demographic prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms included negative, positive, and depressive symptoms, functioning, and age. Adjusting for all candidate prognostic factors, the complement regulators group and the coagulation regulators group were identified as prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: 0.160, 0.842; ß: 0.430, 95 % CI: 0.080, 0.780 respectively. The relationship between complement regulator levels and negative symptoms was also observed in NAPLS2 alone (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: -0.037, 1.039) and NAPLS3 alone, additionally adjusting for BMI (ß: 0.442, 95 % CI: 0.127, 0.757). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that plasma complement and coagulation regulator levels are prognostic factors of negative symptoms, independent of clinical and demographic prognostic factors. These results suggest complement and coagulation regulator levels could have potential utility in informing treatment decisions for negative symptoms in individuals at risk.

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The Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP) consortium's transdiagnostic dimensional model of psychopathology has considerable support; however, this model has been underresearched in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), a population that may advance the model. CHR-P individuals not only have attenuated psychotic symptoms that vary in severity, but also have many comorbid diagnoses and varied clinical outcomes, including disorders with uncertain relations to HiTOP (e.g., obsessive-compulsive disorder). The present study used self-report and interview data from North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-3 (710 CHR, 96 controls) to replicate the HiTOP model and test specific hypotheses regarding disorders with uncertain relations to its dimensions. Additionally, the present study examined the HiTOP model in relation to childhood trauma, declines in social functioning, and development of full psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the HiTOP model's fit was nearly adequate (e.g., comparative fit index = .89), though several theory-relevant modifications were indicated. Additionally, specific tests were conducted to gain a more fine-grained perspective on how disorders with less clear prior evidence were related to the HiTOP model. Notable findings from these analyses include bipolar spectrum disorders relating to the psychosis super spectrum (i.e., .39 loading), and obsessive-compulsive disorder showing a complex pattern of loadings (e.g., internalizing and psychosis). The final model parsimoniously accounted for childhood trauma (e.g., super spectra rs = .22-.32), associations with current functioning, and predicted future conversion to a psychotic disorder (e.g., super spectra R² = .13). Overall, these results inform the HiTOP model and suggest its promise for CHR-P research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

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Machine learning approaches using structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) can be informative for disease classification, although their ability to predict psychosis is largely unknown. We created a model with individuals at CHR who developed psychosis later (CHR-PS+) from healthy controls (HCs) that can differentiate each other. We also evaluated whether we could distinguish CHR-PS+ individuals from those who did not develop psychosis later (CHR-PS-) and those with uncertain follow-up status (CHR-UNK). T1-weighted structural brain MRI scans from 1165 individuals at CHR (CHR-PS+, n = 144; CHR-PS-, n = 793; and CHR-UNK, n = 228), and 1029 HCs, were obtained from 21 sites. We used ComBat to harmonize measures of subcortical volume, cortical thickness and surface area data and corrected for non-linear effects of age and sex using a general additive model. CHR-PS+ (n = 120) and HC (n = 799) data from 20 sites served as a training dataset, which we used to build a classifier. The remaining samples were used external validation datasets to evaluate classifier performance (test, independent confirmatory, and independent group [CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK] datasets). The accuracy of the classifier on the training and independent confirmatory datasets was 85% and 73% respectively. Regional cortical surface area measures-including those from the right superior frontal, right superior temporal, and bilateral insular cortices strongly contributed to classifying CHR-PS+ from HC. CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK individuals were more likely to be classified as HC compared to CHR-PS+ (classification rate to HC: CHR-PS+, 30%; CHR-PS-, 73%; CHR-UNK, 80%). We used multisite sMRI to train a classifier to predict psychosis onset in CHR individuals, and it showed promise predicting CHR-PS+ in an independent sample. The results suggest that when considering adolescent brain development, baseline MRI scans for CHR individuals may be helpful to identify their prognosis. Future prospective studies are required about whether the classifier could be actually helpful in the clinical settings.

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BACKGROUND: Sensory prediction allows the brain to anticipate and parse incoming self-generated sensory information from externally generated signals. Sensory prediction breakdowns may contribute to perceptual and agency abnormalities in psychosis (hallucinations, delusions). The pons, a central node in a cortico-ponto-cerebellar-thalamo-cortical circuit, is thought to support sensory prediction. Examination of pons connectivity in schizophrenia and its role in sensory prediction abnormalities is lacking. METHODS: We examined these relationships using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and the electroencephalography-based auditory N1 event-related potential in 143 participants with psychotic spectrum disorders (PSPs) (with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar disorder); 63 first-degree relatives of individuals with psychosis; 45 people at clinical high risk for psychosis; and 124 unaffected comparison participants. This unique sample allowed examination across the psychosis spectrum and illness trajectory. Seeding from the pons, we extracted average connectivity values from thalamic and cerebellar clusters showing differences between PSPs and unaffected comparison participants. We predicted N1 amplitude attenuation during a vocalization task from pons connectivity and group membership. We correlated participant-level connectivity in PSPs and people at clinical high risk for psychosis with hallucination and delusion severity. RESULTS: Compared to unaffected comparison participants, PSPs showed pons hypoconnectivity to 2 cerebellar clusters, and first-degree relatives of individuals with psychosis showed hypoconnectivity to 1 of these clusters. Pons-to-cerebellum connectivity was positively correlated with N1 attenuation; only PSPs with heightened pons-to-postcentral gyrus connectivity showed this pattern, suggesting a possible compensatory mechanism. Pons-to-cerebellum hypoconnectivity was correlated with greater hallucination severity specifically among PSPs with schizophrenia. CONCLUSIONS: Deficient pons-to-cerebellum connectivity linked sensory prediction network breakdowns with perceptual abnormalities in schizophrenia. Findings highlight shared features and clinical heterogeneity across the psychosis spectrum.

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